If it's not the moles, it's something else. Homeowning can really be for the birds, I think.
It does seem like every time I think I'm getting a bit ahead with the old finances, having a bit of extra money to sock away (or pay down what I had to borrow) ... something comes up. This week, it turns out the great anniversary gift for my wife is a new washing machine.
Appliances break, things need maintenance, replacing stuff is part of owning a home. I get all that. Doesn't make it any more fun. The old washer had been making uncomfortable noises for a while now, but you know, it was almost 10 years old. I make uncomfortable noises, too, but I still work. But last Saturday, just as we were finishing up the week's wash ... it was making some uncomfortable noises while it wasn't actually doing anything. I just happened to be in the basement working on the computer when I heard the machine buzz and whine, then stop. But there wasn't any motion, or water running, or washing type things happening.
I knew that was bad. I went into the laundry room to find the smell of a burned-out motor, or belt, or both. Luckily ... luckily! ... the water had drained from the last load, it just hadn't spun out yet. So all things considered, it was probably the best possible part of the wash cycle for it to die.
So, off to find a new washing machine. You know there aren't any appliance stores any more. You have Sears, or Best Buy, or Lowes, or Home Depot. That's about it. Plus, in the old days, you went and looked at machines, and the salesperson told you about them, and you picked one out that had a decent price and good size. Now you check reviews online, and every model has people saying "THIS WASHER SUCKS!" and "Never buy a (brand name) again!" and "This machine tears up my clothes!" Maybe the reviews for the $1300 washers don't say that, but I'll never know. I'm not going to pay $1300 for a washing machine. Ever.
So you finally pick out one that seems to have pretty good ratings, and has a fairly decent price, and you hold your breath and hand over your credit card and you hope you didn't screw up. Because there's only about two companies in the world who actually build washing machines any more, they just stick different brand names on them, so problems people have with one model are problems you'll probably have with another, and nobody builds anything to last very long anymore, and everything has computer chips in them now that can stop working without warning and can never be fixed and ....
Crazy. Crazy buying household appliances anymore. I do not like it. This thing hasn't even been delivered yet, so who knows how long it might take to actually learn how to use it. If it works at all.
Homeownership. What a concept, huh?
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Another Take on Xavier's Season
(Subtitled: Things I Think About While I'm Raking the Yard.)
The 2012 Xavier Saints (4A): Undefeated in the regular season. Running the continuous clock on opponents week in and week out. Rolled through the playoffs, and ended up leading the championship game most of the fourth quarter before finally falling to Ankeny.
The 2013 Xavier Saints (4A): Eight shutouts by the defense. Only one loss during the regular season, to a really good, quickly improving Washington team. Rolled through the playoffs, before being rather convincingly beaten by Dowling in the championship.
It's no surprise that many people thought that having this team play in Class 3A in 2014 would be a farce - that these 4A powerhouse players would slice through the smaller class like a hot knife through butter. So to have Xavier finish at 6-3, even winning their district (on a tiebreaker), might be a little disappointing for some fans.
Hold on. Let's take another look at things.
Two of those three losses were to defending state champions.
Xavier's only 3A loss, in their district, was by a single point, with Xavier missing an extra point and a field goal. The winners of that game ended up with the top offense in the district.
Xavier was tied with Regina in the fourth quarter. It took three big plays by the Regals to pull ahead by two touchdowns late.
Dowling won quite handily in the opening game. But ... the Maroons ran the continuous clock on every team they played this year except two: West Des Moines Valley, and Cedar Rapids Xavier. The Saints held Dowling to over 200 yards below their season per-game average for rushing. With the exception of their loss to Valley, Dowling scored 45 points or more on every opponent - except for the 24 they managed against Xavier (and 14 of those came on a short field after interceptions).
Not to lessen the achievements of Dowling, Western Dubuque and Iowa City Regina. All three of those teams outplayed Xavier, and deserved the wins they got on the field. But none of them were exactly blowouts. The Saints contended hard in all three of those losses, and had a chance in two of them.
So, just some things going through my head while raking on a windy day. Now we'll see how the Saints can handle 3A playoff competition.
The 2012 Xavier Saints (4A): Undefeated in the regular season. Running the continuous clock on opponents week in and week out. Rolled through the playoffs, and ended up leading the championship game most of the fourth quarter before finally falling to Ankeny.
The 2013 Xavier Saints (4A): Eight shutouts by the defense. Only one loss during the regular season, to a really good, quickly improving Washington team. Rolled through the playoffs, before being rather convincingly beaten by Dowling in the championship.
It's no surprise that many people thought that having this team play in Class 3A in 2014 would be a farce - that these 4A powerhouse players would slice through the smaller class like a hot knife through butter. So to have Xavier finish at 6-3, even winning their district (on a tiebreaker), might be a little disappointing for some fans.
Hold on. Let's take another look at things.
Two of those three losses were to defending state champions.
Xavier's only 3A loss, in their district, was by a single point, with Xavier missing an extra point and a field goal. The winners of that game ended up with the top offense in the district.
Xavier was tied with Regina in the fourth quarter. It took three big plays by the Regals to pull ahead by two touchdowns late.
Dowling won quite handily in the opening game. But ... the Maroons ran the continuous clock on every team they played this year except two: West Des Moines Valley, and Cedar Rapids Xavier. The Saints held Dowling to over 200 yards below their season per-game average for rushing. With the exception of their loss to Valley, Dowling scored 45 points or more on every opponent - except for the 24 they managed against Xavier (and 14 of those came on a short field after interceptions).
Not to lessen the achievements of Dowling, Western Dubuque and Iowa City Regina. All three of those teams outplayed Xavier, and deserved the wins they got on the field. But none of them were exactly blowouts. The Saints contended hard in all three of those losses, and had a chance in two of them.
So, just some things going through my head while raking on a windy day. Now we'll see how the Saints can handle 3A playoff competition.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
A Season Of ... Huh. Go Figure
Xavier closed out their regular season last Friday with a convincing 37-6 win over Marion. That was about as expected - while Marion came into the night with a 7-game losing streak, they'd kept most games close with their defense. Turnovers and injuries had been a huge problem for Marion. Well, four turnovers in the second half against Xavier certainly added to the Saints' point total.
Xavier showed some new wrinkles on offense. Instead of the jet sweep to Nick Stark that had been featured all year, they put Stark in motion, then handed off inside to a running back. Later they showed the same look, but Stark bubbled behind the tailback position for an old-school end around play (it didn't work, but it was different). On a couple of occasions both running backs motioned out of the backfield to a split position, and the Saints tried an outside screen pass to Jay Kortemeyer with Nic Ekland blocking right in front of him. Xavier also went deep, which we haven't seen a whole lot this year. I can think of three times in the second half; one was just a bit too far for Joe Welch, while the other two were completed to Welch for 45- and 26-yard touchdowns.
Xavier's defense continued to be solid. Marion's only points came right after the second-half kickoff, which took a bounce that fooled Matt Downey. He stumbled a bit trying to recover, thought maybe the ball would go out of bounds, then didn't get to it in time as a Marion player recovered at the Xavier 2. The Indians got a touchdown a couple of plays later, but that was it. Marion only crossed midfield on one possession the entire game, and that was helped by a (truly bogus) pass interference penalty.
(Seriously. I'm not one to be too hard on high school officials - I umpire myself, and had thoughts about football officiating a few years back - but this was a hugely blatant offensive pass interference call. The Marion receiver almost yanked Downey down to the ground by his jersey. But the call went against Downey. Seriously, guys.)
So the Saints win their district in their first year as a 3A school. They did not, however, blow through the season with ease, as so many pundits assumed they would, finishing with a 6-3 record (5-1 in the district, and if you want to be coy about it, 6-1 against 3A competition). Two of those three losses were to defending state champions (Dowling and Regina), but the other one, the district loss to Western Dubuque, came as a bit of a surprise and a wakeup call. Xavier was able to get the district crown on a points tiebreaker, as their record put them in a three-way tie with the Bobcats and Solon.
On to the playoffs. Xavier's first round opponent will be the Comets of Charles City, who finished fourth in a very tough District 3. That district came within 3 points of a five-way tie for first last Friday - Charles City lost to Waverly-Shell Rock by 2 and Decorah lost to West Delaware by 1. If those two games came out the other way ... mass hysteria. Anyway, the Comets are a good, solid team. They lost three games in their district, by a total of 10 points. They defeated a good Decorah team convincingly. It appears their offensive attack is centered around two players - QB Levi Blaine has thrown for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns, and also is Charles City's leading rusher. Brian Foster has rushed for 587 yards (8.5 yards a carry!) and 8 touchdowns, and has also caught 13 passes. Those two guys are key for the Comets.
I feel better about Xavier's chances of advancement into the playoffs after seeing their performance against Marion. As I mentioned last week, they're really good on defense, which can carry you a ways, but the offense perked up some and I think that's a very good sign as the playoffs begin. Not to look ahead - Charles City will be tough - but the second round opponents are likely to be either Waverly-Shell Rock or Washington. Waverly-Shell Rock finished second in that tough District 3, while Washington was second in the state last year and has been playing really good football for the past month. Also possible, with some first-round upsets, are Davenport Assumption, Newton or Fairfield, but those are all expected to lose Wednesday night.
Xavier showed some new wrinkles on offense. Instead of the jet sweep to Nick Stark that had been featured all year, they put Stark in motion, then handed off inside to a running back. Later they showed the same look, but Stark bubbled behind the tailback position for an old-school end around play (it didn't work, but it was different). On a couple of occasions both running backs motioned out of the backfield to a split position, and the Saints tried an outside screen pass to Jay Kortemeyer with Nic Ekland blocking right in front of him. Xavier also went deep, which we haven't seen a whole lot this year. I can think of three times in the second half; one was just a bit too far for Joe Welch, while the other two were completed to Welch for 45- and 26-yard touchdowns.
Xavier's defense continued to be solid. Marion's only points came right after the second-half kickoff, which took a bounce that fooled Matt Downey. He stumbled a bit trying to recover, thought maybe the ball would go out of bounds, then didn't get to it in time as a Marion player recovered at the Xavier 2. The Indians got a touchdown a couple of plays later, but that was it. Marion only crossed midfield on one possession the entire game, and that was helped by a (truly bogus) pass interference penalty.
(Seriously. I'm not one to be too hard on high school officials - I umpire myself, and had thoughts about football officiating a few years back - but this was a hugely blatant offensive pass interference call. The Marion receiver almost yanked Downey down to the ground by his jersey. But the call went against Downey. Seriously, guys.)
So the Saints win their district in their first year as a 3A school. They did not, however, blow through the season with ease, as so many pundits assumed they would, finishing with a 6-3 record (5-1 in the district, and if you want to be coy about it, 6-1 against 3A competition). Two of those three losses were to defending state champions (Dowling and Regina), but the other one, the district loss to Western Dubuque, came as a bit of a surprise and a wakeup call. Xavier was able to get the district crown on a points tiebreaker, as their record put them in a three-way tie with the Bobcats and Solon.
On to the playoffs. Xavier's first round opponent will be the Comets of Charles City, who finished fourth in a very tough District 3. That district came within 3 points of a five-way tie for first last Friday - Charles City lost to Waverly-Shell Rock by 2 and Decorah lost to West Delaware by 1. If those two games came out the other way ... mass hysteria. Anyway, the Comets are a good, solid team. They lost three games in their district, by a total of 10 points. They defeated a good Decorah team convincingly. It appears their offensive attack is centered around two players - QB Levi Blaine has thrown for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns, and also is Charles City's leading rusher. Brian Foster has rushed for 587 yards (8.5 yards a carry!) and 8 touchdowns, and has also caught 13 passes. Those two guys are key for the Comets.
I feel better about Xavier's chances of advancement into the playoffs after seeing their performance against Marion. As I mentioned last week, they're really good on defense, which can carry you a ways, but the offense perked up some and I think that's a very good sign as the playoffs begin. Not to look ahead - Charles City will be tough - but the second round opponents are likely to be either Waverly-Shell Rock or Washington. Waverly-Shell Rock finished second in that tough District 3, while Washington was second in the state last year and has been playing really good football for the past month. Also possible, with some first-round upsets, are Davenport Assumption, Newton or Fairfield, but those are all expected to lose Wednesday night.
Monday, October 20, 2014
Clip and Save #2 (You Better Toss the First One)
I knew things would happen over the last couple of weeks that were unexpected. I knew it! And I was right! Does that make me truly psychic? Or is the pesky fact that I didn't predict exactly what would happen count me out there? Details, details ...
Anyway, we had unusual results like Independence beating (an injury- and sickness-depleted) West Delaware, Charles City knocking off Decorah (who may not even make the playoffs now), and Solon absolutely destroying Western Dubuque. Who knows what this week might bring?
So, on to my updated projections:
District 1
The only change here is I think Spencer might take the tiebreaker for the fourth spot, over Le Mars and Denison-Schleswig. It'll be hard to know for sure until after Friday.
Sioux City Heelan
Sergeant Bluff-Luton
BHRV
Spencer
District 2
Here it looks like Webster City sneaks into the fourth spot over Perry.
Carroll
Humboldt
Greene County
Webster City
District 3
So Charles City knocked off Decorah and Independence beat West Delaware. Naturally, that means if Charles City can beat Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah is able to beat West Delaware (who might still be without their top running back), we'll have five teams tied at 4-2. That would probably mean Decorah gets the four spot over Independence - who are looking at their first playoff appearance since 1985.
West Delaware (head to head over W-SR)
Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence
Charles City (head to head over Decorah)
District 4
No surprises here. As long as Xavier defeats Marion by 2 points or more, Solon can't catch them for the points tiebreaker.
Xavier (points tiebreaker over Solon and W. Dubuque)
Solon (points tiebreaker over W. Dubuque)
Western Dubuque
Dubuque Wahlert
District 5
If Washington (last year's state runner-up) is able to beat Assumption Friday, they'll trade the second and third spots.
Clear Creek-Amana
Davenport Assumption
Washington
Fairfield
District 6
Bondurant-Farrar did a lot for themselves with a win over Newton last week. They actually have a shot to win the district. Of course, if Grinnell upsets Ballard, this is another district with a five-way tie at 4-2. If they don't, they miss the playoffs entirely.
Ballard
Bondurant-Farrar (head to head over Gilbert and Newton)
Gilbert (head to head over Newton)
Newton
District 7
The third and fourth places will be determined by the Norwalk-Knoxville game Friday.
Pella
Carlisle
Norwalk
Knoxville
District 8
Friday's game between ADM and Harlan is basically a play-in game for the fourth spot.
Dallas Center-Grimes
Creston
Winterset
ADM-Adel/Harlan
First-round matchups
I made a few adjustments for the 125-mile first-round travel limit. The BHRV at Humboldt matchup works out to 126 miles by Google Maps ... so I take the state association at their word and say that doesn't happen. That means BHRV has to get a district rematch with Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Likewise, there are no non-district opponents within 125 miles for Heelan (unless Harlan gets in by beating ADM), so they'll have to face Spencer again.
If all the games shake out Friday like I say, which they won't. Of course.
#4 at #1
Spencer at Heelan (district rematch)
ADM at Carroll
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware
Charles City at Xavier
Newton at Clear Creek-Amana
Knoxville at Ballard
Fairfield at Pella
Webster City at Dallas Center-Grimes
#3 at #2
BHRV at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (district rematch)
Winterset at Humboldt
Gilbert at Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence at Solon
Western Dubuque at Davenport Assumption
Norwalk at Bondurant-Farrar
Washington at Carlisle
Greene County at Creston
Anyway, we had unusual results like Independence beating (an injury- and sickness-depleted) West Delaware, Charles City knocking off Decorah (who may not even make the playoffs now), and Solon absolutely destroying Western Dubuque. Who knows what this week might bring?
So, on to my updated projections:
District 1
The only change here is I think Spencer might take the tiebreaker for the fourth spot, over Le Mars and Denison-Schleswig. It'll be hard to know for sure until after Friday.
Sioux City Heelan
Sergeant Bluff-Luton
BHRV
Spencer
District 2
Here it looks like Webster City sneaks into the fourth spot over Perry.
Carroll
Humboldt
Greene County
Webster City
District 3
So Charles City knocked off Decorah and Independence beat West Delaware. Naturally, that means if Charles City can beat Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah is able to beat West Delaware (who might still be without their top running back), we'll have five teams tied at 4-2. That would probably mean Decorah gets the four spot over Independence - who are looking at their first playoff appearance since 1985.
West Delaware (head to head over W-SR)
Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence
Charles City (head to head over Decorah)
District 4
No surprises here. As long as Xavier defeats Marion by 2 points or more, Solon can't catch them for the points tiebreaker.
Xavier (points tiebreaker over Solon and W. Dubuque)
Solon (points tiebreaker over W. Dubuque)
Western Dubuque
Dubuque Wahlert
District 5
If Washington (last year's state runner-up) is able to beat Assumption Friday, they'll trade the second and third spots.
Clear Creek-Amana
Davenport Assumption
Washington
Fairfield
District 6
Bondurant-Farrar did a lot for themselves with a win over Newton last week. They actually have a shot to win the district. Of course, if Grinnell upsets Ballard, this is another district with a five-way tie at 4-2. If they don't, they miss the playoffs entirely.
Ballard
Bondurant-Farrar (head to head over Gilbert and Newton)
Gilbert (head to head over Newton)
Newton
District 7
The third and fourth places will be determined by the Norwalk-Knoxville game Friday.
Pella
Carlisle
Norwalk
Knoxville
District 8
Friday's game between ADM and Harlan is basically a play-in game for the fourth spot.
Dallas Center-Grimes
Creston
Winterset
ADM-Adel/Harlan
First-round matchups
I made a few adjustments for the 125-mile first-round travel limit. The BHRV at Humboldt matchup works out to 126 miles by Google Maps ... so I take the state association at their word and say that doesn't happen. That means BHRV has to get a district rematch with Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Likewise, there are no non-district opponents within 125 miles for Heelan (unless Harlan gets in by beating ADM), so they'll have to face Spencer again.
If all the games shake out Friday like I say, which they won't. Of course.
#4 at #1
Spencer at Heelan (district rematch)
ADM at Carroll
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware
Charles City at Xavier
Newton at Clear Creek-Amana
Knoxville at Ballard
Fairfield at Pella
Webster City at Dallas Center-Grimes
#3 at #2
BHRV at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (district rematch)
Winterset at Humboldt
Gilbert at Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence at Solon
Western Dubuque at Davenport Assumption
Norwalk at Bondurant-Farrar
Washington at Carlisle
Greene County at Creston
Tops in 1A Is Pretty Darn Good
Friday brought one of the most anticipated high school football matchups of the year when Iowa City Regina came to Cedar Rapids to take on Xavier. When the schedule came out last February, lots of people circled this date on their calendars. After all, Regina was riding a 56-game winning streak at the end of 2013, and had won four straight state titles (2A in 2010 and 2011, 1A in 2012 and 2013). Xavier was one of eastern Iowa's strongest 4A programs over the past several years, with a state title of their own in 2006 and back-to-back appearances in the championship game in 2012 and 2013.
So then Regina went out and dropped their season opener to Solon (another 3A program taking on the 1A Regals), ending the winning streak and taking some of the luster off this October game. Xavier also dropped their opener, but since it was to defending 4A state champ Dowling, it was pretty much expected. A bigger surprise was the Saints' district loss to Western Dubuque a couple of weeks ago, so both contestants took quite a bit of the hype off this game well before it actually arrived.
And yet ... Regina has been asking bigger programs to play them on the field for years, and with the exception of Solon, has always been denied. After their season-opening loss, the Regals have rolled through the rest of their schedule pretty much unchallenged. Of course everyone knows former Iowa and NFL tight end Marv Cook leads the coaching staff ... he's gone 95-6 over seven-plus years as head coach there (and four of those six losses were to Solon!). His son Drew is the quarterback, a 6 foot 5 inch athlete with good speed and a great touch on throwing the ball. Jake Brinkman is a fantastic athlete at running back and linebacker. Nick Phillips is a speedy receiver/returner who also gets some touches at running back, averaging nearly 18 yards a carry. And Michael Adam is a sturdy linebacker with a great nose for the ball. Three of those four guys would play huge roles in the game against Xavier.
You could tell from the outset it was going to be a well-matched contest. Both teams traded possessions through the first half, with the edge having to go to Regina. Xavier did pick off Cook for his first interception of the season, but were unable to get points on the drive when they missed a 28-yard field goal into the breeze. The Regals got on the board in the second quarter with a seven-play drive; Cook had a great run to get the bulk of the yards, then a great throw-and-catch (by Nathan Stenger) set up Cook for a 2-yard dive for the score. Xavier's defense did stand up Cook on the run - twice - but he kept the legs driving and finally got in.
In the second half, Regina kept moving field position in their favor but the Saints defense kept making the key stops. The Xavier offense finally got a drive going early in the fourth. Starting at the 20, Xavier moved the ball down the field, picking up three first downs as they drove into Regina territory. Facing a 4th and 3 at the 25, the Saints showed a tight short-yardage formation, but Bryce Schulte dropped back and threw to Joe Welch near the left sideline. The Regal defender went for the ball and missed, and Welch took it all the way to tie the game at 7.
Regina responded on the next play from scrimmage. Xavier sent a blitz, which they did a lot throughout the game. Brinkman - who had only 9 yards rushing in the first three quarters - managed to get past the wave of blitzers, then found nobody else left to stop him. He ran 71 yards for the score and instantly put Regina back in the lead.
After the Saints were unable to answer with their next possession, Brinkman started the next Regina drive with a 39-yard run, going from 9 yards rushing to 119 yards in two carries. Cook later found Eric Bracken for 39 yards on the Xavier sideline at the two, with Bracken making a tremendous catch and coming down with the ball even though Caleb Billick was all over him. Cook took it in on the next play, and it was 21-7 Regina. That turned out to be the final score.
The Regal players were humble and effusive in their praise of Xavier afterwards, repeating the fact that almost all the other big schools in the area turned down offers to play Regina. That's pretty easy to do when you go to Xavier and take a win away, but it's a fair point. The fact is, regardless of the class they play in, Regina is a really good team with really good, tough athletes. Adam was all over the field making stops. Stenger and Bracken made some really great, athletic catches, and Brinkman came through when it mattered, even though he'd been completely neutralized for three quarters.
Xavier had some fine performances as well. I was amazed by a couple of catches - Noah Clasen hung on to the ball as he was drilled by a tackler (that was, unfortunately, the drive that ended with the missed field goal). Nick Stark and Thomas Ickes had incredible catches right in front of the Xavier bench. Give credit to Schulte, who threw very well on the night against a pretty sturdy Regina defense.
As we move to the final game of the regular season, a few takeaways from what I've seen so far. Xavier is a good team. Not great, but good and solid. The defense is really, really good. They could make the difference in some of the upcoming playoff games. After giving up 24 points to Dowling (remember, two of those touchdowns came on short fields after interceptions), the Saints have allowed 6, 0, 3, 6, 7, and 12 points before the 21 scored by Regina (and 12 of those points, against Maquoketa and Wahlert, came against the second team defense). They are good.
I have reservations about Xavier's offense, though. They've proven they can dominate teams that don't measure up, with points and yardage explosions against Central DeWitt, Maquoketa and Wahlert. However, they have been less successful against quality defenses, struggling to pick up yards on the ground against Dowling, Western Dubuque and now Regina. Solon is the outlier here, as the Saints did have a pretty good showing offensively, but even then 7 of Xavier's 28 points came via the defense on an interception return.
So can the offensive line get a solid running game going against quality teams once the playoffs arrive? That's the real question I have. Once you get to the third round, or even, possibly, the second this year in eastern Iowa, you're looking at some pretty darn good teams. It's going to be a real challenge for Xavier to step up and make their way to the semifinals in the Dome this year. It's not out of the question, but they'll have to prove they can run the ball against tough defenses.
Xavier plays Marion this week, a Marion squad that is on a 7-game losing streak. The Indians don't get blown out or give up a lot of points, but they have trouble scoring. If Xavier, Solon and Western Dubuque all win on Friday, it's a three-way tie for the District 4 title at 5-1. Should Xavier beat Marion by at least 2 points, there's no way Solon can catch them on the points tiebreaker, so the way looks pretty clear for a district crown for Xavier.
Looking at the rest of the probable playoff field, it looks like Charles City would be a likely opponent for Xavier in the first round on October 29. Charles City are no slouches - they've beaten Decorah this year, and lost to playoff qualifiers West Delaware by 7 and Independence by 2. Should the Saints advance to the next round, they might be looking at Waverly-Shell Rock, or last year's state runner-up Washington, or possible rematches against Western Dubuque or Davenport Assumption, or maybe even Solon. None of those are going to be easy. Getting to the third round means facing another district winner, like West Delaware or Clear Creek-Amana or even Pella, or a team that knocked off one of those titleists (Solon here, maybe - the Spartans are playing really good football right now).
So, folks, like I said earlier this season ... it's not going to be the case for Xavier to stroll their way into Class 3A and walk away with the trophy. If they do happen to win the state title, they are going to have to earn it. The road even to the semifinals looks very, very tough, especially now that the Saints have revealed some offensive weaknesses in this years' team. The next couple of weeks should show just how much grit and determination these kids have in them.
So then Regina went out and dropped their season opener to Solon (another 3A program taking on the 1A Regals), ending the winning streak and taking some of the luster off this October game. Xavier also dropped their opener, but since it was to defending 4A state champ Dowling, it was pretty much expected. A bigger surprise was the Saints' district loss to Western Dubuque a couple of weeks ago, so both contestants took quite a bit of the hype off this game well before it actually arrived.
And yet ... Regina has been asking bigger programs to play them on the field for years, and with the exception of Solon, has always been denied. After their season-opening loss, the Regals have rolled through the rest of their schedule pretty much unchallenged. Of course everyone knows former Iowa and NFL tight end Marv Cook leads the coaching staff ... he's gone 95-6 over seven-plus years as head coach there (and four of those six losses were to Solon!). His son Drew is the quarterback, a 6 foot 5 inch athlete with good speed and a great touch on throwing the ball. Jake Brinkman is a fantastic athlete at running back and linebacker. Nick Phillips is a speedy receiver/returner who also gets some touches at running back, averaging nearly 18 yards a carry. And Michael Adam is a sturdy linebacker with a great nose for the ball. Three of those four guys would play huge roles in the game against Xavier.
You could tell from the outset it was going to be a well-matched contest. Both teams traded possessions through the first half, with the edge having to go to Regina. Xavier did pick off Cook for his first interception of the season, but were unable to get points on the drive when they missed a 28-yard field goal into the breeze. The Regals got on the board in the second quarter with a seven-play drive; Cook had a great run to get the bulk of the yards, then a great throw-and-catch (by Nathan Stenger) set up Cook for a 2-yard dive for the score. Xavier's defense did stand up Cook on the run - twice - but he kept the legs driving and finally got in.
In the second half, Regina kept moving field position in their favor but the Saints defense kept making the key stops. The Xavier offense finally got a drive going early in the fourth. Starting at the 20, Xavier moved the ball down the field, picking up three first downs as they drove into Regina territory. Facing a 4th and 3 at the 25, the Saints showed a tight short-yardage formation, but Bryce Schulte dropped back and threw to Joe Welch near the left sideline. The Regal defender went for the ball and missed, and Welch took it all the way to tie the game at 7.
Regina responded on the next play from scrimmage. Xavier sent a blitz, which they did a lot throughout the game. Brinkman - who had only 9 yards rushing in the first three quarters - managed to get past the wave of blitzers, then found nobody else left to stop him. He ran 71 yards for the score and instantly put Regina back in the lead.
After the Saints were unable to answer with their next possession, Brinkman started the next Regina drive with a 39-yard run, going from 9 yards rushing to 119 yards in two carries. Cook later found Eric Bracken for 39 yards on the Xavier sideline at the two, with Bracken making a tremendous catch and coming down with the ball even though Caleb Billick was all over him. Cook took it in on the next play, and it was 21-7 Regina. That turned out to be the final score.
The Regal players were humble and effusive in their praise of Xavier afterwards, repeating the fact that almost all the other big schools in the area turned down offers to play Regina. That's pretty easy to do when you go to Xavier and take a win away, but it's a fair point. The fact is, regardless of the class they play in, Regina is a really good team with really good, tough athletes. Adam was all over the field making stops. Stenger and Bracken made some really great, athletic catches, and Brinkman came through when it mattered, even though he'd been completely neutralized for three quarters.
Xavier had some fine performances as well. I was amazed by a couple of catches - Noah Clasen hung on to the ball as he was drilled by a tackler (that was, unfortunately, the drive that ended with the missed field goal). Nick Stark and Thomas Ickes had incredible catches right in front of the Xavier bench. Give credit to Schulte, who threw very well on the night against a pretty sturdy Regina defense.
As we move to the final game of the regular season, a few takeaways from what I've seen so far. Xavier is a good team. Not great, but good and solid. The defense is really, really good. They could make the difference in some of the upcoming playoff games. After giving up 24 points to Dowling (remember, two of those touchdowns came on short fields after interceptions), the Saints have allowed 6, 0, 3, 6, 7, and 12 points before the 21 scored by Regina (and 12 of those points, against Maquoketa and Wahlert, came against the second team defense). They are good.
I have reservations about Xavier's offense, though. They've proven they can dominate teams that don't measure up, with points and yardage explosions against Central DeWitt, Maquoketa and Wahlert. However, they have been less successful against quality defenses, struggling to pick up yards on the ground against Dowling, Western Dubuque and now Regina. Solon is the outlier here, as the Saints did have a pretty good showing offensively, but even then 7 of Xavier's 28 points came via the defense on an interception return.
So can the offensive line get a solid running game going against quality teams once the playoffs arrive? That's the real question I have. Once you get to the third round, or even, possibly, the second this year in eastern Iowa, you're looking at some pretty darn good teams. It's going to be a real challenge for Xavier to step up and make their way to the semifinals in the Dome this year. It's not out of the question, but they'll have to prove they can run the ball against tough defenses.
Xavier plays Marion this week, a Marion squad that is on a 7-game losing streak. The Indians don't get blown out or give up a lot of points, but they have trouble scoring. If Xavier, Solon and Western Dubuque all win on Friday, it's a three-way tie for the District 4 title at 5-1. Should Xavier beat Marion by at least 2 points, there's no way Solon can catch them on the points tiebreaker, so the way looks pretty clear for a district crown for Xavier.
Looking at the rest of the probable playoff field, it looks like Charles City would be a likely opponent for Xavier in the first round on October 29. Charles City are no slouches - they've beaten Decorah this year, and lost to playoff qualifiers West Delaware by 7 and Independence by 2. Should the Saints advance to the next round, they might be looking at Waverly-Shell Rock, or last year's state runner-up Washington, or possible rematches against Western Dubuque or Davenport Assumption, or maybe even Solon. None of those are going to be easy. Getting to the third round means facing another district winner, like West Delaware or Clear Creek-Amana or even Pella, or a team that knocked off one of those titleists (Solon here, maybe - the Spartans are playing really good football right now).
So, folks, like I said earlier this season ... it's not going to be the case for Xavier to stroll their way into Class 3A and walk away with the trophy. If they do happen to win the state title, they are going to have to earn it. The road even to the semifinals looks very, very tough, especially now that the Saints have revealed some offensive weaknesses in this years' team. The next couple of weeks should show just how much grit and determination these kids have in them.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Guessing 4A - Because Why Not?
Just the eastern side, that is. These are the schools I'm used to, back in the halcyon days of the MVC and the MAC, back when playoff points could be toted up in a spreadsheet, way back last year.
Anyway, just two games left, so the districts are sort of settling out. One 4A district already has their four playoff teams decided, with only placement/seeding left. True, 4A is a bit weird, since they have only five or six teams per district instead of the usual seven or eight. Also, I don't think the 125-mile travel restriction applies to 4A, nor will the state be bound by the old east/west split. In my figuring, though, if the results I expect hold up, it's an easy thing to keep all the east-siders together for the first round.
Onward ...
District 5
Cedar Rapids Kennedy started 0-6. They have a great shot at making the playoffs. How's that for weird?
Linn-Mar 5-0
Cedar Falls 4-1
CR Kennedy 2-3
Waterloo West 2-3
CR Jefferson 2-3
Waterloo East 0-5
You could flip a coin (or coins) for that three-way tie for third, if Kennedy beats Waterloo West in Week 9. Kennedy will have beaten West, who beat Jeff, who beat Kennedy, so it goes to the points tiebreaker. There is still a lot of movement possible in that area, so any two of these could actually make the playoffs. I say Kennedy and West here, just because Jeff currently trails in that tiebreak.
District 6
Muscatine is the wild card here, with games left against Prairie and City High. Win them both, the Muskies are an easy second place. Lose them both, and just a three-point win over Ottumwa gets them into the playoffs (that's assuming Ottumwa loses to Prairie in Week 9). I say they beat Prairie and lose to City High, so ...
CR Washington 5-0
Iowa City High 3-2
Muscatine 3-2
Prairie 2-3
Ottumwa 2-3
Burlington 0-5
Obviously, if my guesses are wrong, shake ups can occur. If Ottumwa beats Prairie, they probably make it in.
District 7
Maybe somewhat of a question between Pleasant Valley and Hempstead. PV is not quite as strong this season as they have been, and Hempstead has a pretty good team. The only difference is who finishes second and who's in third ... these four playoff teams are already known.
Iowa City West 4-0
Pleasant Valley 3-1
Dubuque Hempstead 2-2
Davenport Central 1-3
Davenport North 0-4
District 8
Not too many questions in this one.
Bettendorf 4-0
North Scott 3-1
Dubuque Senior 2-2
Clinton 1-3
Davenport West 0-4
First-round matchups
It's still 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. The state can mix and match east and west all they want, but the way I see it, these east-side matchups work out just fine for the first round.
#4 at #1 Prairie at Linn-Mar
Waterloo West at CR Washington
Davenport Central at Bettendorf
Clinton at Iowa City West
#3 at #2 CR Kennedy at Iowa City High
Muscatine at Pleasant Valley
Dubuque Hempstead at North Scott
Dubuque Senior at Cedar Falls
Anyway, just two games left, so the districts are sort of settling out. One 4A district already has their four playoff teams decided, with only placement/seeding left. True, 4A is a bit weird, since they have only five or six teams per district instead of the usual seven or eight. Also, I don't think the 125-mile travel restriction applies to 4A, nor will the state be bound by the old east/west split. In my figuring, though, if the results I expect hold up, it's an easy thing to keep all the east-siders together for the first round.
Onward ...
District 5
Cedar Rapids Kennedy started 0-6. They have a great shot at making the playoffs. How's that for weird?
Linn-Mar 5-0
Cedar Falls 4-1
CR Kennedy 2-3
Waterloo West 2-3
CR Jefferson 2-3
Waterloo East 0-5
You could flip a coin (or coins) for that three-way tie for third, if Kennedy beats Waterloo West in Week 9. Kennedy will have beaten West, who beat Jeff, who beat Kennedy, so it goes to the points tiebreaker. There is still a lot of movement possible in that area, so any two of these could actually make the playoffs. I say Kennedy and West here, just because Jeff currently trails in that tiebreak.
District 6
Muscatine is the wild card here, with games left against Prairie and City High. Win them both, the Muskies are an easy second place. Lose them both, and just a three-point win over Ottumwa gets them into the playoffs (that's assuming Ottumwa loses to Prairie in Week 9). I say they beat Prairie and lose to City High, so ...
CR Washington 5-0
Iowa City High 3-2
Muscatine 3-2
Prairie 2-3
Ottumwa 2-3
Burlington 0-5
Obviously, if my guesses are wrong, shake ups can occur. If Ottumwa beats Prairie, they probably make it in.
District 7
Maybe somewhat of a question between Pleasant Valley and Hempstead. PV is not quite as strong this season as they have been, and Hempstead has a pretty good team. The only difference is who finishes second and who's in third ... these four playoff teams are already known.
Iowa City West 4-0
Pleasant Valley 3-1
Dubuque Hempstead 2-2
Davenport Central 1-3
Davenport North 0-4
District 8
Not too many questions in this one.
Bettendorf 4-0
North Scott 3-1
Dubuque Senior 2-2
Clinton 1-3
Davenport West 0-4
First-round matchups
It's still 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. The state can mix and match east and west all they want, but the way I see it, these east-side matchups work out just fine for the first round.
#4 at #1 Prairie at Linn-Mar
Waterloo West at CR Washington
Davenport Central at Bettendorf
Clinton at Iowa City West
#3 at #2 CR Kennedy at Iowa City High
Muscatine at Pleasant Valley
Dubuque Hempstead at North Scott
Dubuque Senior at Cedar Falls
Monday, October 13, 2014
Clip and Save
Okay, my prognosticator skills aren't necessarily world-beating. I did have CR Washington as a good team this year, which not everybody thought. I also didn't think this year's St. Louis Cardinals team was all that great, yet look at them now in the NLCS and challenging for a World Series berth. Yeah, that's why I don't bet.
Anyway, there's only two weeks left in the high school football season. You can actually make some pretty good guesses at to how the districts will shake out and maybe even some playoff pairings, with just two variables to throw in there. So that's what this post is for - to give my "predictions" on how the last two weeks will shake out, and have a look at the possible final district standings in Class 3A. I may do Class 4A later, at least the eastern side, maybe, I dunno.
So, "clip and save" so you can see what a great Nostradamus job I did. Or, more likely, since every season it seems there are always weird results happening over the last two weeks that mess up everybody's expected playoff brackets, you can look back at this in a week or two and hold your sides in laughter at some of the things I thought would happen.
Courage! To the list!
District 1
The interesting game here is Boyden Hull-Rock Valley (henceforth BHRV) and LeMars this Friday. I give BHRV the edge, so the results would be
Sioux City Heelan 6-0
Sergeant Bluff-Luton 5-1
BHRV 4-2
LeMars 2-4
Denison-Schleswig 2-4
Spencer 2-4
Storm Lake 0-6
LeMars should take the fourth playoff spot on the points tiebreaker. If LeMars beats BHRV, they'd leapfrog BHRV into third.
District 2
Carroll and Greene County is somewhat interesting in Week 9, but Carroll ought to win that one.
Carroll 6-0
Humboldt 5-1
Greene County 4-2
Perry 3-3
Webster City 2-4
Boone 1-5
Algona 0-6
District 3
There's a lot up in the air here. Charles City still has to play Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock. I say they lose both. If they pull out a win in one of those games, they've got a shot at a top four finish. Decorah plays West Delaware Week 9, which will probably go to West Delaware, but you should never count out Decorah.
West Delaware 6-0
Waverly-Shell Rock 5-1
Decorah 4-2
Independence 3-3
Charles City 2-4
Vinton-Shellsburg 1-5
Crestwood-Cresco 0-6
District 4
Ah, the one I'm paying attention to. :) I expect Solon to down Western Dubuque this Friday. If they don't, Western Dubuque probably wins the district. If Solon wins, it's a likely three-way tie with Xavier on top and Western Dubuque in third, thanks to points.
Xavier 5-1
Solon 5-1
Western Dubuque 5-1
Dubuque Wahlert 3-3
Central Clinton-DeWitt 2-4
Maquoketa 1-5
Marion 0-6
District 5
Clear Creek-Amana got everyone's attention by thumping Davenport Assumption last week. Assumption now takes on Fairfield and Washington the last two weeks. These results assume two Assumption wins - if Washington takes that game instead, they'll flip-flop.
Clear Creek-Amana 6-0
Davenport Assumption 5-1
Washington 4-2
Fairfield 3-3
Mt. Pleasant 2-4
Ft.Madison 1-5
Keokuk 0-6
District 6
Good luck figuring this one out. I have Grinnell losing out, to Ballard and Gilbert, but either one could go either way. I also think Newton will beat Bondurant-Farrar, but I am in no way certain of that. Grinnell could end up 5-1 instead of 3-3; Ballard could be 4-2, as could Newton, as could B-F ... there's a lot up in the air here.
Newton 5-1
Ballard 5-1
Gilbert 4-2
Grinnell 3-3
Bondurant-Farrar 3-3
Benton 1-5
Nevada 0-6
In this scenario Newton gets first and Grinnell gets fourth thanks to head-to-head results.
District 7
Finally! One without too much drama. Carlisle should beat Chariton, which is the only kinda-sorta tossup I have here.
Pella 6-0
Carlisle 5-1
Norwalk 4-2
Knoxville 3-3
Chariton 2-4
Oskaloosa 1-5
Saydel 0-6
District 8
Dallas Center-Grimes takes on Creston this Friday for the district title, essentially. I say DC-G, but who knows? I also call sort of an upset with Harlan over ADM-Adel in Week 9 - if I'm wrong there, ADM gets in at fourth over Harlan.
Dallas Center-Grimes 6-0
Creston 5-1
Winterset 4-2
Harlan 3-3
ADM-Adel 2-4
Atlantic 1-5
Glenwood 0-6
First-round matchups
Okay, first of all, it's 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. Other than that, the state can make any matchups they want, with the main goal of keeping travel under 125 miles while still mixing up districts. Unfortunately, with the finishes I have set out above, there isn't any way to mix up Districts 1 and 2 in the 2-3 matchups without blowing that mileage limitation. Therefore, I put those two first-round games as district rematches. I just don't see any other way the state can set them up, if they are serious about that 125-mile limit.
#4 at #1 Harlan at Heelan 96 miles
LeMars at Carroll 116 miles
Wahlert at West Delaware 45 miles
Grinnell at Xavier 70-ish miles (route dependent)
Independence at CCA 60 miles
Knoxville at Newton 28 miles
Fairfield at Pella 70 miles
Perry at Dallas Center Grimes 25 miles
#3 at #2 BHRV at Sgt. Bluff Luton (district rematch)
Greene County at Humboldt (district rematch)
Gilbert at Waverly-SR 107 miles
Decorah at Solon 123 miles (pushing that limit)
Western Dub at Assumption 79 miles
(Davenport is the outlier here, with WDub the only place to go)
Winterset at Ballard 62 miles
Washington at Carlisle 103 miles
Norwalk at Creston 66 miles
Anyway, there's only two weeks left in the high school football season. You can actually make some pretty good guesses at to how the districts will shake out and maybe even some playoff pairings, with just two variables to throw in there. So that's what this post is for - to give my "predictions" on how the last two weeks will shake out, and have a look at the possible final district standings in Class 3A. I may do Class 4A later, at least the eastern side, maybe, I dunno.
So, "clip and save" so you can see what a great Nostradamus job I did. Or, more likely, since every season it seems there are always weird results happening over the last two weeks that mess up everybody's expected playoff brackets, you can look back at this in a week or two and hold your sides in laughter at some of the things I thought would happen.
Courage! To the list!
District 1
The interesting game here is Boyden Hull-Rock Valley (henceforth BHRV) and LeMars this Friday. I give BHRV the edge, so the results would be
Sioux City Heelan 6-0
Sergeant Bluff-Luton 5-1
BHRV 4-2
LeMars 2-4
Denison-Schleswig 2-4
Spencer 2-4
Storm Lake 0-6
LeMars should take the fourth playoff spot on the points tiebreaker. If LeMars beats BHRV, they'd leapfrog BHRV into third.
District 2
Carroll and Greene County is somewhat interesting in Week 9, but Carroll ought to win that one.
Carroll 6-0
Humboldt 5-1
Greene County 4-2
Perry 3-3
Webster City 2-4
Boone 1-5
Algona 0-6
District 3
There's a lot up in the air here. Charles City still has to play Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock. I say they lose both. If they pull out a win in one of those games, they've got a shot at a top four finish. Decorah plays West Delaware Week 9, which will probably go to West Delaware, but you should never count out Decorah.
West Delaware 6-0
Waverly-Shell Rock 5-1
Decorah 4-2
Independence 3-3
Charles City 2-4
Vinton-Shellsburg 1-5
Crestwood-Cresco 0-6
District 4
Ah, the one I'm paying attention to. :) I expect Solon to down Western Dubuque this Friday. If they don't, Western Dubuque probably wins the district. If Solon wins, it's a likely three-way tie with Xavier on top and Western Dubuque in third, thanks to points.
Xavier 5-1
Solon 5-1
Western Dubuque 5-1
Dubuque Wahlert 3-3
Central Clinton-DeWitt 2-4
Maquoketa 1-5
Marion 0-6
District 5
Clear Creek-Amana got everyone's attention by thumping Davenport Assumption last week. Assumption now takes on Fairfield and Washington the last two weeks. These results assume two Assumption wins - if Washington takes that game instead, they'll flip-flop.
Clear Creek-Amana 6-0
Davenport Assumption 5-1
Washington 4-2
Fairfield 3-3
Mt. Pleasant 2-4
Ft.Madison 1-5
Keokuk 0-6
District 6
Good luck figuring this one out. I have Grinnell losing out, to Ballard and Gilbert, but either one could go either way. I also think Newton will beat Bondurant-Farrar, but I am in no way certain of that. Grinnell could end up 5-1 instead of 3-3; Ballard could be 4-2, as could Newton, as could B-F ... there's a lot up in the air here.
Newton 5-1
Ballard 5-1
Gilbert 4-2
Grinnell 3-3
Bondurant-Farrar 3-3
Benton 1-5
Nevada 0-6
In this scenario Newton gets first and Grinnell gets fourth thanks to head-to-head results.
District 7
Finally! One without too much drama. Carlisle should beat Chariton, which is the only kinda-sorta tossup I have here.
Pella 6-0
Carlisle 5-1
Norwalk 4-2
Knoxville 3-3
Chariton 2-4
Oskaloosa 1-5
Saydel 0-6
District 8
Dallas Center-Grimes takes on Creston this Friday for the district title, essentially. I say DC-G, but who knows? I also call sort of an upset with Harlan over ADM-Adel in Week 9 - if I'm wrong there, ADM gets in at fourth over Harlan.
Dallas Center-Grimes 6-0
Creston 5-1
Winterset 4-2
Harlan 3-3
ADM-Adel 2-4
Atlantic 1-5
Glenwood 0-6
First-round matchups
Okay, first of all, it's 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. Other than that, the state can make any matchups they want, with the main goal of keeping travel under 125 miles while still mixing up districts. Unfortunately, with the finishes I have set out above, there isn't any way to mix up Districts 1 and 2 in the 2-3 matchups without blowing that mileage limitation. Therefore, I put those two first-round games as district rematches. I just don't see any other way the state can set them up, if they are serious about that 125-mile limit.
#4 at #1 Harlan at Heelan 96 miles
LeMars at Carroll 116 miles
Wahlert at West Delaware 45 miles
Grinnell at Xavier 70-ish miles (route dependent)
Independence at CCA 60 miles
Knoxville at Newton 28 miles
Fairfield at Pella 70 miles
Perry at Dallas Center Grimes 25 miles
#3 at #2 BHRV at Sgt. Bluff Luton (district rematch)
Greene County at Humboldt (district rematch)
Gilbert at Waverly-SR 107 miles
Decorah at Solon 123 miles (pushing that limit)
Western Dub at Assumption 79 miles
(Davenport is the outlier here, with WDub the only place to go)
Winterset at Ballard 62 miles
Washington at Carlisle 103 miles
Norwalk at Creston 66 miles
Saturday, October 11, 2014
Back on Track
The key to Xavier's game with Dubuque Wahlert at the Rock Bowl was, can the Saints get back on track? How will they respond after they were outplayed in an unexpected loss to Western Dubuque? Historically, the Saints have shown losses like that have been motivators, or wake-up calls. Would that still hold true?
Well, Wahlert took the opening kickoff and handed the ball to stud running back Riley Hasken five straight times. He just accounted for 72 yards, including a 49-yard touchdown run that bowled over a couple of Saints tacklers and just looked too easy. A missed extra point made it only 6-0, but ... was the Western Dubuque hangover continuing for Xavier?
Forty-one unanswered points later, I think the answer was "no." Xavier responded with a four-play 56-yard TD drive of their own (all by Jay Kortemeyer), and after one exchange of punts, rang up five consecutive touchdown drives to cruise to a 41-12 victory at the Rock Bowl. Kortemeyer ended up with three touchdowns and over 200 yards rushing, and Bryce Schulte shrugged off his 0 for 7 performance of the previous week with two passing touchdowns (and about three drops, too, so he was really throwing well).
A few things to take away from this game: I was surprised Wahlert went away from Hasken so quickly. He made the first drive look so easy, but the Golden Eagles started to try to throw the ball more the next couple of drives (which then resulted in a Xavier interception that led to their second score). The game then quickly got out of hand and the ground game wasn't as much of an option for Wahlert, but why not keep pounding Hasken at the beginning while it was close? He's a load, tough to bring down and always moving forward for extra yards. After last night he's close to 1200 yards rushing on the season.
Another thing to mention is, despite the final score, this was a quite entertaining game. There were multiple athletic "ooh and ahh" moments for both teams. Hasken's touchdown run; a falling, rolling grab by Nick Stark right at the goal line for a Xavier TD catch; a one-handed grab by Joe Welch for another Saints score; Kortemeyer's last touchdown, a hard-earned 29-yard run through and over several Wahlert tacklers; and the Golden Eagles' last touchdown late in the third quarter, a diving highlight-reel catch by Austin Kluck. A lot of fun to watch.
A head scratcher came at the end of the first half. Wahlert had a little drive going, trailing 28-6, but were only near midfield with time running out. With 4th and about a foot to go, coach Travis Zajac let the clock run as much as he could, then called time out. He then went for the first down, and got it - only to let the clock expire. I suppose that showed a lot of respect for Xavier's punt return team, which has been outstanding this year, but it was a bit of a gamble to risk not getting the first and giving Xavier one shot from midfield at the end of the half. I dunno. It didn't make any difference in the game, but it was an interesting decision.
Okay, results-oriented. The win puts Xavier at 4-1 in the district and guarantees them a playoff game. Western Dubuque and Solon both won their games, so the Bobcats are 4-0 and the Spartans 3-1 going into their big match next Friday. If Solon wins, that sets the stage for a three-way tie in District 4 that would give the district title to Xavier in the tiebreaker. If WD can pull out the win, they almost certainly win the district on their own. Fun times ahead!
Well, Wahlert took the opening kickoff and handed the ball to stud running back Riley Hasken five straight times. He just accounted for 72 yards, including a 49-yard touchdown run that bowled over a couple of Saints tacklers and just looked too easy. A missed extra point made it only 6-0, but ... was the Western Dubuque hangover continuing for Xavier?
Forty-one unanswered points later, I think the answer was "no." Xavier responded with a four-play 56-yard TD drive of their own (all by Jay Kortemeyer), and after one exchange of punts, rang up five consecutive touchdown drives to cruise to a 41-12 victory at the Rock Bowl. Kortemeyer ended up with three touchdowns and over 200 yards rushing, and Bryce Schulte shrugged off his 0 for 7 performance of the previous week with two passing touchdowns (and about three drops, too, so he was really throwing well).
A few things to take away from this game: I was surprised Wahlert went away from Hasken so quickly. He made the first drive look so easy, but the Golden Eagles started to try to throw the ball more the next couple of drives (which then resulted in a Xavier interception that led to their second score). The game then quickly got out of hand and the ground game wasn't as much of an option for Wahlert, but why not keep pounding Hasken at the beginning while it was close? He's a load, tough to bring down and always moving forward for extra yards. After last night he's close to 1200 yards rushing on the season.
Another thing to mention is, despite the final score, this was a quite entertaining game. There were multiple athletic "ooh and ahh" moments for both teams. Hasken's touchdown run; a falling, rolling grab by Nick Stark right at the goal line for a Xavier TD catch; a one-handed grab by Joe Welch for another Saints score; Kortemeyer's last touchdown, a hard-earned 29-yard run through and over several Wahlert tacklers; and the Golden Eagles' last touchdown late in the third quarter, a diving highlight-reel catch by Austin Kluck. A lot of fun to watch.
A head scratcher came at the end of the first half. Wahlert had a little drive going, trailing 28-6, but were only near midfield with time running out. With 4th and about a foot to go, coach Travis Zajac let the clock run as much as he could, then called time out. He then went for the first down, and got it - only to let the clock expire. I suppose that showed a lot of respect for Xavier's punt return team, which has been outstanding this year, but it was a bit of a gamble to risk not getting the first and giving Xavier one shot from midfield at the end of the half. I dunno. It didn't make any difference in the game, but it was an interesting decision.
Okay, results-oriented. The win puts Xavier at 4-1 in the district and guarantees them a playoff game. Western Dubuque and Solon both won their games, so the Bobcats are 4-0 and the Spartans 3-1 going into their big match next Friday. If Solon wins, that sets the stage for a three-way tie in District 4 that would give the district title to Xavier in the tiebreaker. If WD can pull out the win, they almost certainly win the district on their own. Fun times ahead!
Wednesday, October 8, 2014
The Playoff Picture Begins to Coalesce
Yes, I said coalesce. I went there. Brought out the big vocab words today ...
I said I'd look at the District 4 playoff picture, and I thought I'd do that before this week's games. Things are beginning to come together with three weeks left in the season, so we can at least start with the projections and the guessing and the rankings and the HOYven-glaven ...
It looks like three teams have separated themselves out for the top three spots - Western Dubuque, Xavier and Solon. Solon's only district loss (only loss period) is to Xavier, and they have looked really good in recent weeks. Xavier's only district loss is to Western Dubuque. Western Dubuque has yet to lose a district game, but they still have to play Solon. The battle for the fourth spot is basically between Dubuque Wahlert and Central DeWitt. Maquoketa and Marion have practically no shot at getting into the top four.
First, a look back. Xavier dominated everybody in district play before that 7-6 loss to Western Dubuque last week. They beat Solon by 28 (admittedly Solon had some key players hurt/sick that week), and crushed Central DeWitt and Maquoketa. Solon struggled against Marion, but definitively beat last year's runner-up Washington and flattened Central DeWitt. Western Dubuque cruised over Maquoketa and had to go to overtime against Wahlert. Wahlert had to use a last-second score to beat Central DeWitt, beat Maquoketa easily, then suffered the overtime loss to the Bobcats and a crushing defeat to Davenport Assumption last week. Central DeWitt had the close loss to Wahlert and a 6-point win over Marion along with two thumpings at the hands of Xavier and Solon.
What's yet to come? As mentioned, the big game affecting the final standings will be October 17 when Solon travels to Epworth to take on the Bobcats. A Western Dubuque win puts them in the driver's seat for the district title, but a Solon win sets up a possible three-way tie for the top. Xavier has Wahlert this week (and given recent history, you have to expect the Saints to bounce back in a big way in response to last week's loss - if they don't win big, that would almost be a surprise) and Marion, which has yet to win a district game. Solon plays Maquoketa, Western Dubuque and Wahlert. Western Dubuque has Marion, Solon and Central DeWitt.
Given how the first six weeks have gone, a logical observer might expect Xavier to win their two district games and finish 5-1 in District 4. Solon would be expected to defeat Maquoketa and Wahlert, and Western Dubuque would be favored against Marion and Central DeWitt. So ... if Solon defeats the Bobcats, all three teams would finish 5-1. Xavier has defeated Solon, Western Dubuque has defeated Xavier, and Solon would have defeated Western Dubuque. That means the district rankings go to the 13-point tiebreaker.
For those used to the 4A playoff point system who might not be familiar with the tiebreaker, here's how it works. Score margins of district games are calculated with a cap of +13 or -13 (if you win or lose by more than 13 points, it just counts as 13 points; that's supposed to prevent running up the score). The total margin is divided by the number of district games, and that average is used to break ties between more than two teams (because with two you always have head-to-head results). Currently Xavier's tiebreaker average is 9.5. The highest Solon can possibly get, by winning their three remaining games by 13 or more points, is 8.67. If Western Dubuque loses a game - the only way they'd be involved in a three-way tie - the best they can do is 6.67. So, should Xavier defeat both Wahlert and Marion by at least 8 points apiece, they'll finish with a tiebreaker average of no worse than 8.83. With a Western Dubuque loss to Solon, that gives Xavier the district title.
Now, if Western Dubuque defeats Solon (as well as Marion and Central DeWitt), they win the district outright. Solon would have 2 district losses and likely drop to third. If Western Dubuque beats Solon but loses to, say, Central DeWitt, the Bobcats win a tie with Xavier due to head-to-head.
So next week's game looms pretty large. If Solon is able to take that game on the road at Epworth, the strongest likelihood is Xavier winning the district on the tiebreaker average, with Solon second and Western Dubuque third. Wahlert looks to have the edge for the fourth spot, as Central DeWitt will be lucky to get to three district wins while Wahlert has a shot to get there when they play Marion.
Why does district placement matter? Well, let's say Xavier ends up second in the district. They will get the first-round playoff game at home, against a team that finished third in their district and is within 125 miles. Teams in the running for those spots include Waverly Shell Rock, Charles City, Decorah, Washington, Fairfield, and Grinnell. Win that first round game, and you're likely going on the road to take on a district winner, such as West Delaware, Clear Creek Amana or Davenport Assumption. Get through that, and you're almost definitely on the road at another district winner in the third rounds.
Now say Xavier gets the district title. The first round game is still at home, against a fourth place finisher in another district. Win that, and you'll be home again for the second round (since district winners can't play each other in the second round, you'd have the top seed for that). The third round? Even if it's two district winners matching up, this year the home field is determined by reverse alphabetical order. Xavier comes out on top against every team in the state on that one. So the difference between winning the district and finishing second could very well mean the difference between three home playoff games and only one.
First off, Xavier has to take care of business and win over Wahlert and Marion. Make it 8 points or more for each, and there's no need to worry about the tiebreaker. Then there's a bit of scoreboard-watching, with next week's Solon-Western Dubuque game. I think we will have a strong setup of how the top four will finish in District 4 after October 17.
I said I'd look at the District 4 playoff picture, and I thought I'd do that before this week's games. Things are beginning to come together with three weeks left in the season, so we can at least start with the projections and the guessing and the rankings and the HOYven-glaven ...
It looks like three teams have separated themselves out for the top three spots - Western Dubuque, Xavier and Solon. Solon's only district loss (only loss period) is to Xavier, and they have looked really good in recent weeks. Xavier's only district loss is to Western Dubuque. Western Dubuque has yet to lose a district game, but they still have to play Solon. The battle for the fourth spot is basically between Dubuque Wahlert and Central DeWitt. Maquoketa and Marion have practically no shot at getting into the top four.
First, a look back. Xavier dominated everybody in district play before that 7-6 loss to Western Dubuque last week. They beat Solon by 28 (admittedly Solon had some key players hurt/sick that week), and crushed Central DeWitt and Maquoketa. Solon struggled against Marion, but definitively beat last year's runner-up Washington and flattened Central DeWitt. Western Dubuque cruised over Maquoketa and had to go to overtime against Wahlert. Wahlert had to use a last-second score to beat Central DeWitt, beat Maquoketa easily, then suffered the overtime loss to the Bobcats and a crushing defeat to Davenport Assumption last week. Central DeWitt had the close loss to Wahlert and a 6-point win over Marion along with two thumpings at the hands of Xavier and Solon.
What's yet to come? As mentioned, the big game affecting the final standings will be October 17 when Solon travels to Epworth to take on the Bobcats. A Western Dubuque win puts them in the driver's seat for the district title, but a Solon win sets up a possible three-way tie for the top. Xavier has Wahlert this week (and given recent history, you have to expect the Saints to bounce back in a big way in response to last week's loss - if they don't win big, that would almost be a surprise) and Marion, which has yet to win a district game. Solon plays Maquoketa, Western Dubuque and Wahlert. Western Dubuque has Marion, Solon and Central DeWitt.
Given how the first six weeks have gone, a logical observer might expect Xavier to win their two district games and finish 5-1 in District 4. Solon would be expected to defeat Maquoketa and Wahlert, and Western Dubuque would be favored against Marion and Central DeWitt. So ... if Solon defeats the Bobcats, all three teams would finish 5-1. Xavier has defeated Solon, Western Dubuque has defeated Xavier, and Solon would have defeated Western Dubuque. That means the district rankings go to the 13-point tiebreaker.
For those used to the 4A playoff point system who might not be familiar with the tiebreaker, here's how it works. Score margins of district games are calculated with a cap of +13 or -13 (if you win or lose by more than 13 points, it just counts as 13 points; that's supposed to prevent running up the score). The total margin is divided by the number of district games, and that average is used to break ties between more than two teams (because with two you always have head-to-head results). Currently Xavier's tiebreaker average is 9.5. The highest Solon can possibly get, by winning their three remaining games by 13 or more points, is 8.67. If Western Dubuque loses a game - the only way they'd be involved in a three-way tie - the best they can do is 6.67. So, should Xavier defeat both Wahlert and Marion by at least 8 points apiece, they'll finish with a tiebreaker average of no worse than 8.83. With a Western Dubuque loss to Solon, that gives Xavier the district title.
Now, if Western Dubuque defeats Solon (as well as Marion and Central DeWitt), they win the district outright. Solon would have 2 district losses and likely drop to third. If Western Dubuque beats Solon but loses to, say, Central DeWitt, the Bobcats win a tie with Xavier due to head-to-head.
So next week's game looms pretty large. If Solon is able to take that game on the road at Epworth, the strongest likelihood is Xavier winning the district on the tiebreaker average, with Solon second and Western Dubuque third. Wahlert looks to have the edge for the fourth spot, as Central DeWitt will be lucky to get to three district wins while Wahlert has a shot to get there when they play Marion.
Why does district placement matter? Well, let's say Xavier ends up second in the district. They will get the first-round playoff game at home, against a team that finished third in their district and is within 125 miles. Teams in the running for those spots include Waverly Shell Rock, Charles City, Decorah, Washington, Fairfield, and Grinnell. Win that first round game, and you're likely going on the road to take on a district winner, such as West Delaware, Clear Creek Amana or Davenport Assumption. Get through that, and you're almost definitely on the road at another district winner in the third rounds.
Now say Xavier gets the district title. The first round game is still at home, against a fourth place finisher in another district. Win that, and you'll be home again for the second round (since district winners can't play each other in the second round, you'd have the top seed for that). The third round? Even if it's two district winners matching up, this year the home field is determined by reverse alphabetical order. Xavier comes out on top against every team in the state on that one. So the difference between winning the district and finishing second could very well mean the difference between three home playoff games and only one.
First off, Xavier has to take care of business and win over Wahlert and Marion. Make it 8 points or more for each, and there's no need to worry about the tiebreaker. Then there's a bit of scoreboard-watching, with next week's Solon-Western Dubuque game. I think we will have a strong setup of how the top four will finish in District 4 after October 17.
Tuesday, October 7, 2014
Okay, Nobody Said THIS Would Happen
Remember my last post? When I said the road was clear to a 6-0 district record for Xavier? When I said I couldn't really see anybody challenging the Saints in District 4? And how everybody couldn't shut up about Xavier running the table in 3A for years and years to come? Remember?
Nobody told Western Dubuque. Instead, the Bobcats did an outstanding job of scouting and preparation, brought the hammer down on defense, and pulled out a 7-6 stunner of a victory over Xavier at the Saints' homecoming. So - 3A football is pretty good, right? Assuming the entire class would fold up like wet cardboard in the face of Xavier domination was just downright disrespectful. I'm not exactly happy that the Saints dropped a district game - this game film is a road map for anybody else who wants to stop the Xavier offense - but it puts the lie to the idea that nobody can compete with big bad Xavier. Which was a point I have trying to make since the Saints decided to move to 3A last winter.
To the game. You knew something was up when the first quarter ended scoreless. This was typically the point where Xavier led by four touchdowns, so yeah, this was different. The Bobcat defense seemed to be baffling the Saints offensive line, shutting down the run game while harassing Bryce Schulte all game. Schulte ended up 0 of 7 passing and was sacked five times.
Meanwhile the Xavier defense was its typical strong self. They actually gave up a few first half first downs, but also intercepted Nolan Baumhover twice while chasing him as doggedly as Western Dubuque chased Schulte. The interceptions, though, did not lead to any points (although one was returned to the end zone, a penalty erased that score). However, the defense came through in the second quarter. The ball was knocked loose from the Bobcat running back, and Nic Ekland took it 50-some yards for the touchdown. The snap on the extra point try was botched, though. No one really thought that was a big deal at the time. Xavier would surely pile on some points now.
The second half started with a Xavier drive, but that stalled near midfield. Then Western Dubuque started driving, from their own 20, moving down the field. The Bobcats mounted an incredible 14-play drive, converting a couple of third downs, then a huge 4th and 4 at the 29 turned into a first down when Baumhover threw to Andrew Meyer for 7. On the next play Baumhover hit Mitch Kramer on the hip and Kramer ran down the sideline into the end zone. This extra point was good, and the Saints trailed a 3A opponent for the first time ever.
Still, you just knew Xavier would get points. The tide looked like it might turn late in the third quarter when the Saints defense held again (after a bad punt snap gave Western Dubuque fantastic field position) and forced a 27-yard field goal try, the Bobcats' first of the season. Well, it would have been the first if they actually tried it, but they instead went with a fake and lost yardage.
The Saints failed on fourth down over and over ... I think six times they turned the ball over on downs. One time came in the middle of the 4th quarter, ending a 13-play 68-yard drive. After Schulte was sacked for the fifth time on 3rd and long, his 4th down pass to the end zone was bobbled and knocked away. Xavier started their next drive with a terrific punt return, down to the Bobcat 21. The Saints could not get a first down, though, and Sean Murphy lost two yards on third down. That might have hurt, as Dallas Klein missed the 35-yard field goal wide left with 1:30 on the clock.
Again the Xavier defense held, forcing a three and out that used only 17 seconds thanks to all three time outs. The Saints would get the ball back. The punt return team had been money all season, including this game. There wasn't a lot of time left, but a good return should give Klein another chance. Jordan Perry's punt was a low spinner, as he'd kicked all night. It skipped off the ground ... and off the hands of Camden Stovie. A scramble for the ball, and Western Dubuque came up with it. Game over.
So, a shocker for most observers. Give credit to the Bobcats, as they knew what to do on defense, confused Xavier, and flew to the ball with abandon. Western Dubuque as a district has had a lot of recent tragedy, with four incoming freshmen killed by a drunk driver last summer, and at least three students losing parents to cancer recently. You can't say that was what made the difference, but you also can't ignore the toughness and resiliency of these players. I think a big factor was, they really wanted this game more, and it paid off.
So a district loss for Xavier. Unexpected, but not a disaster. I will talk about the playoff picture in my next post. Spoiler alert: Xavier still has an excellent shot at taking the district title.
Nobody told Western Dubuque. Instead, the Bobcats did an outstanding job of scouting and preparation, brought the hammer down on defense, and pulled out a 7-6 stunner of a victory over Xavier at the Saints' homecoming. So - 3A football is pretty good, right? Assuming the entire class would fold up like wet cardboard in the face of Xavier domination was just downright disrespectful. I'm not exactly happy that the Saints dropped a district game - this game film is a road map for anybody else who wants to stop the Xavier offense - but it puts the lie to the idea that nobody can compete with big bad Xavier. Which was a point I have trying to make since the Saints decided to move to 3A last winter.
To the game. You knew something was up when the first quarter ended scoreless. This was typically the point where Xavier led by four touchdowns, so yeah, this was different. The Bobcat defense seemed to be baffling the Saints offensive line, shutting down the run game while harassing Bryce Schulte all game. Schulte ended up 0 of 7 passing and was sacked five times.
Meanwhile the Xavier defense was its typical strong self. They actually gave up a few first half first downs, but also intercepted Nolan Baumhover twice while chasing him as doggedly as Western Dubuque chased Schulte. The interceptions, though, did not lead to any points (although one was returned to the end zone, a penalty erased that score). However, the defense came through in the second quarter. The ball was knocked loose from the Bobcat running back, and Nic Ekland took it 50-some yards for the touchdown. The snap on the extra point try was botched, though. No one really thought that was a big deal at the time. Xavier would surely pile on some points now.
The second half started with a Xavier drive, but that stalled near midfield. Then Western Dubuque started driving, from their own 20, moving down the field. The Bobcats mounted an incredible 14-play drive, converting a couple of third downs, then a huge 4th and 4 at the 29 turned into a first down when Baumhover threw to Andrew Meyer for 7. On the next play Baumhover hit Mitch Kramer on the hip and Kramer ran down the sideline into the end zone. This extra point was good, and the Saints trailed a 3A opponent for the first time ever.
Still, you just knew Xavier would get points. The tide looked like it might turn late in the third quarter when the Saints defense held again (after a bad punt snap gave Western Dubuque fantastic field position) and forced a 27-yard field goal try, the Bobcats' first of the season. Well, it would have been the first if they actually tried it, but they instead went with a fake and lost yardage.
The Saints failed on fourth down over and over ... I think six times they turned the ball over on downs. One time came in the middle of the 4th quarter, ending a 13-play 68-yard drive. After Schulte was sacked for the fifth time on 3rd and long, his 4th down pass to the end zone was bobbled and knocked away. Xavier started their next drive with a terrific punt return, down to the Bobcat 21. The Saints could not get a first down, though, and Sean Murphy lost two yards on third down. That might have hurt, as Dallas Klein missed the 35-yard field goal wide left with 1:30 on the clock.
Again the Xavier defense held, forcing a three and out that used only 17 seconds thanks to all three time outs. The Saints would get the ball back. The punt return team had been money all season, including this game. There wasn't a lot of time left, but a good return should give Klein another chance. Jordan Perry's punt was a low spinner, as he'd kicked all night. It skipped off the ground ... and off the hands of Camden Stovie. A scramble for the ball, and Western Dubuque came up with it. Game over.
So, a shocker for most observers. Give credit to the Bobcats, as they knew what to do on defense, confused Xavier, and flew to the ball with abandon. Western Dubuque as a district has had a lot of recent tragedy, with four incoming freshmen killed by a drunk driver last summer, and at least three students losing parents to cancer recently. You can't say that was what made the difference, but you also can't ignore the toughness and resiliency of these players. I think a big factor was, they really wanted this game more, and it paid off.
So a district loss for Xavier. Unexpected, but not a disaster. I will talk about the playoff picture in my next post. Spoiler alert: Xavier still has an excellent shot at taking the district title.
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