So that's why I don't predict. Here's a quick look at District 3 and who comes back for each squad, listed in the order of their 2016 finish.
XAVIER (7-0, 2-1 in playoffs, 11-1 overall)
The Saints had a record-breaking year in 2016, with school records set in all sorts of offensive categories. Xavier never trailed between the third quarter of the Linn-Mar game in Week 2 and Vinton-Shellsburg's opening drive in Week 8, so that was 21 consecutive quarters where the Saints were never behind. But, high school players are also students, who graduate and move on to other things - so long, Maliki Wilson. We'll miss you, Bryce Schulte. Best of luck, Nolan Butkowski. We're going to miss you, John Rocca, Max Johnson, Sam Meyers, Ryan Jasper, Josh Gerke, etc, etc, etc. Only one starter returns for Xavier on offense (Quinn Schulte, who will be a junior this year, was the leading receiver in 2016 with 52 catches for 526 yards and 5 TDs; he might end up moving to quarterback in the footsteps of his brothers Reggie and Bryce). Just four are back on the defensive side (Jacob Hines on the line, McClain Burger and Jack Lemke, who was the team's second-leading tackler, at linebacker, and Quinn Schulte in the backfield). Xavier has always had a strong feeder program and a terrific sophomore squad (I can't remember the Xavier sophomores losing more than one game in a season for the past ten years), and with Coach Duane Schulte entering his 20th year as Saints head coach, you can expect Xavier to reload more than rebuild. But it could be a challenging season.
BENTON (6-1, 0-1 in playoffs, 7-2 overall)
The Bobcats had a surprisingly effective year in 2016, running the table with six straight district wins after losing to Xavier in September. They've got some talent returning; Spencer Touro threw for 1086 yards and 9 TDs, while Maurice Williams ran for 1307 yards and 14 TDs. Luke Wiebel spelled Touro at quarterback, going 17-37 for 207 yards. Both Touro and Williams were strong on the defensive side, as well. Vance Bartelt is the district's best returning kicker, scoring 52 points last season.
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK (5-2, 1-1 in playoffs, 6-3 overall)
The Go-Hawks have a long tradition of football success, which continued in 2016. While losses to Xavier and Benton knocked them out of the automatic playoff spots, Waverly-Shell Rock still qualified as one of the two at-large 3A teams in the entire state. They then proved they belonged by upsetting West Delaware in the first round before Xavier knocked them out of the playoffs in the second round. Leading rusher Gabriel Santoiemma is back this fall, pounding out 1032 yards and 11 TDs last year. Receiver Jack Seward also returns, who had 18 catches for 336 yards to go along with 3 interceptions on defense. Brady Leonard and Braden Holmquist also return on the defensive side, as well as punter Jordan Gayer (34.8 yards per punt).
DECORAH (4-3, 5-4 overall)
The Vikings edged into the playoffs in 2015 and ended up getting all the way to the third round by upsetting Xavier 30-21 in a second-round game. Last season wasn't quite as successful, but if anything, Decorah has an even stronger football tradition than Waverly-Shell Rock. The Vikings return Brannan Hogan at quarterback, who passed for 718 yards last year, while running back Jake Muhlbauer ran for 525 yards and 7 TDs. Andy Lillegraven had 21 tackles on the defensive side, while Jared Redenius and Dawson Holkesvik each recovered two fumbles.
CHARLES CITY (3-4, 3-6 overall)
The Comets had a rough go of it in 2016, and did it with a crew made up mostly of seniors. If I remember right, I think injuries really took a toll on that squad. Dylan Koresh ran for 392 yards as a sophomore last season, while Tre Walker caught 24 passes and scored 3 TDs. Derek Milligan will be back as kicker, and Theo Arndt was the primary punt returner in 2016 - they will find a regular place for him on the field this fall.
SOUTH TAMA (2-5, 3-6 overall)
The Trojans turned from a successful 2A program to a struggling 3A squad in 2016, but they were pretty young in most positions. Plenty of experience will come back for South Tama this year, with most of these guys playing both ways. Isaac Judge ran for 426 yards and had 60 tackles with 54 sacks; Brady Fritz caught 19 passes and had 40 tackles; Tanner Probasco caught 18 passes and added 62 tackles. Mario Moncada (56 tackles, 3 sacks) and Colton Vest (36 tackles) were strong on the defensive side.
VINTON-SHELLSBURG (1-6, 2-7 overall)
The second of two teams in District 3 nicknamed "Vikings," Vinton-Shellsburg had a rough go of it last year. They only defeated new 3A squad Center Point-Urbana and winless district foe Independence over the course of the season - but they also had the distinction of being the only district team to hold a lead over Xavier, and that for almost the entire first half. Unfortunately (or perhaps fortunately, we will see) the Vikings return almost nobody from 2016. Blake Bohnsack threw for 367 yards and 2 TDs, and Justin Bartz should punt again, but there's not much else.
INDEPENDENCE (0-7, 0-9 overall)
The Mustangs were coming off an 8-1 regular season and a playoff appearance in 2015 (only losing to powerhouse West Delaware by 4 points), so it was kind of a shock to see the program drop off so dramatically. Independence scored only one touchdown in their first seven games, finishing with a total of 29 points for the entire season. There are quite a few players who earned a good amount of playing time and are coming back this fall; Kenyon Hosch threw for 251 yards (and 11 interceptions); Zach Snyder caught 17 passes for 234 yards; Seth House caught 14 passes and added 50 tackles; Sam Graeser had 40 tackles and 3 interceptions while sharing punting duties; and Hunter Shannon and Cyrus Butters returned kicks and punts (Butters, I believe, started out with some good games receiving, then must have gotten hurt and missed most of the rest of the season).
So there you have it, as far as some of the experienced names coming back in District 3 this fall. Of course, there will be plenty of last year's sophomores (as well as juniors who didn't see the field much in 2016) making their marks and leading the way, so obviously one can't make predictions based solely on last year's performance. What we can expect, though, is another solid year from Xavier; contention from Benton, Waverly-Shell Rock, and Decorah; and probably some improvement from South Tama and Independence. Charles City and Vinton-Shellsburg, well, I think we have to wait and see.
