Another Way To See The Districts - Or, I've Gone Crazy!!!

My previous post listed all the new football district assignments for 2018-19, at least for Classes 4A down to A. I also drew up maps that kinda-sorta showed the boundaries between those districts.

In the past, I've also done those maps in a little different way. I call it a "web" map, with lines drawn around the outermost members of a district and connections to other schools inside that line. I think it's actually a bit more accurate visual depiction of the travel involved for district schools - just the boundaries can take in a lot of real estate where there might not be any schools located, whereas this is just lines connecting all the district members. It also really points out where the state does some hinky things.

I already used this method in posting the 4A maps in my previous post, so let's start with 3A:

Right away you see the weird stuff they did with D-5 and D-6. Solon travels across the path of D-5 members CCA and Liberty on their way down to Keokuk and Mount Pleasant. Odd. D-8, of course, is extremely compact (no way around that, really, with the concentration of schools around central Iowa). Solon gets the gut-punch here, though.

Let's look at 2A:

D-1 and D-7 get a bit lucky with travel here. The other seven districts all cover a lot of territory. That Nevada or Gilbert-to-Benton run in D-7 will be a lot better in a decade or so, once Highway 30 gets turned into four lanes all the way.


Here's 1A:

Not too much to see here. It's a bit strange to see Pocahontas Area in D-2 while both Woodward Academy and Woodward-Granger are in D-7 (they're practically on top of each other) but at least they're not crossing each other like with 3A.

And now, A:

More members, so an extra district for Class A. These seem about as compact as you'd be able to make them.

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I want to talk a little about the RPI, and how it's going to make non-district games even more important than district games, in general. Obviously your own team's performance continues to be the top factor, as it should be. Heck, win all 5 of your district games and you're in the playoffs, no matter what happens (even if you're 5-4 overall). But for those teams fighting for the 7 (or whatever number) wild card spots, the results of your non-district games (and the non-district games of your other district members) are what's going to be the difference.

With 6-team districts, at the end of the season the district's overall winning percentage must be .500. It just is ... there will be 15 wins and 15 losses total in all district games. So, a team finishing 4-1 in the district (.800 winning percentage) will see their district opponents' win percentage at .440 (11-14). If you finish 3-2, .600, the rest of your district will be 12-13, .480. These numbers will ALWAYS be true, for EVERY district with 6 members across the state. Therefore, the district contribution to 75% of your RPI is unchanging, based on how you do in the district. A team in D-2 that finishes 4-1 in their district will have the exact same amount of RPI from their district games as a team that's 4-1 in D-7, or D-1, or any other district. It doesn't matter if you've got two teams at 4-1, or two or three teams at 1-4 ... every team across the state with an identical district record is tied in RPI as far as district games go.

So the only thing that's going to actually change RPI (for those teams with identical district records) is non-district games. Obviously doing better in the non-district to get a better overall record is the main thing (8-1, 4-1 in a district is getting a winning percentage boost over going 6-3, 4-1). But what you also want is for your other district members to do well in their non-district games, which increases their winning percentage, which helps your RPI.

Now in the big scheme of things this isn't rocket science. You want to make the playoffs and get a good seed? Win your games, that'll still do it. But the RPI also introduces this incentive to root for the other teams in your district to do well in non-district games, because it will help everybody's RPI. A district that has more teams going 3-1 or better in non-district games is going to have a big RPI advantage over a district with multiple teams going 0-4 or 1-3.

Anyway, outside of actually winning the district title, your district games turn out to be actually less important (sort of) than how your entire district does in non-district games. Just seems interesting, I think. But I'm weird that way.

The New Phone Books - I Mean, Districts Are Here! The New Districts Are Here!

Yesterday we got the lowdown on what the state is going to do with playoff qualifiers in 2018-19 and how districts will be set up. Today, the big reveal - who got moved between classes and who got matched up in what districts. I even have visual aids!

Let's begin in Class 4A. There are 42 teams total, with seven districts of 6 teams each.

4A D-1

• Ankeny
• Des Moines Hoover
• Des Moines Lincoln
• WDM Dowling
• Sioux City East
• Sioux City North

4A D-2

• Ankeny Centennial
• Des Moines Roosevelt
• Fort Dodge
• Marshalltown
• Sioux City West
• Southeast Polk

4A D-3

• Cedar Falls
• Cedar Rapids Jefferson
• Dubuque Hempstead
• Dubuque Senior
• Cedar Rapids Prairie
• Waterloo West

4A D-4

• Davenport North
• Iowa City High
• Iowa City West
• Linn-Mar
• Muscatine
• Pleasant Valley

4A D-5

• Bettendorf
• Burlington
• Cedar Rapids Kennedy
• Cedar Rapids Washington
• Davenport Central
• Davenport West

4A D-6

• Des Moines East
• Indianola
• Johnston
• Mason City
• Ottumwa
• Waukee

4A D-7

• Ames
• Council Bluffs Jefferson
• Council Bluffs Lincoln
• Des Moines North
• Urbandale
• WDM Valley

It's pretty much impossible to draw borders for the 4A districts, because they cross each other all over the place. But here's a visual representation of the districts:

It's got to be tough to get the three Sioux City schools and the two Council Bluffs schools pulled into your mix ... but why the heck do you put Ottumwa and Mason City in the same district?

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As for 3A, they will get the six teams forced out of 4A due to that class being cut down to 42. In addition, Iowa City Liberty begins varsity play in 2018 as a 3A program. Since the state is also reducing Classes 3A/2A/1A from 56 to 54, that means nine teams that played 3A football in 2016-17 will be moving down to 2A. We're looking at nine districts of 6 teams each:

3A D-1

• Sioux City Heelan
• Denison-Schleswig
• LeMars
• Sergeant Bluff-Luton
• Spencer
• Storm Lake

3A D-2

• Boone
• Carroll
• Dallas Center-Grimes
• Humboldt
• Perry
• Webster City

3A D-3

• Charles City
• Decorah
• Independence
• WATERLOO EAST (from 4A)
• Waverly-Shell Rock
• West Delaware

3A D-4

• Center Point-Urbana
• WESTERN DUBUQUE (from 4A)
• Maquoketa
• Marion
• Dubuque Wahlert
• Cedar Rapids Xavier

3A D-5

• Davenport Assumption
• Central DeWitt
• Clear Creek-Amana
• CLINTON (from 4A)
• IOWA CITY LIBERTY (new program)
• NORTH SCOTT (from 4A)

3A D-6

• Fairfield
• Fort Madison
• Keokuk
• Mount Pleasant
• Solon
• Washington

3A D-7

• Grinnell
• Knoxville
• NEWTON (from 4A)
• Oskaloosa
• Pella
• South Tama

3A D-8

• Ballard
• Bondurant-Farrar
• Carlisle
• Gilbert
• North Polk
• Norwalk

3A D-9

• ADM
• Creston
• Glenwood
• Harlan
• LEWIS CENTRAL (from 4A)
• Winterset

Once again, the state contorts itself to get Solon into the southeast Iowa district, skipping by the Spartans so Clear Creek-Amana and Iowa City Liberty go with the Quad Cities schools instead. They did the exact same thing with the 2016-17 districts; it's really obvious when you put things on a map to see how strange that decision is. I don't know why they chose to do that. I mean, Clear Creek-Amana has had a pretty good program the past few years. Not as good as Solon, but good enough for balance's sake, and it would make a nicer map to have CCA in D-6 and Solon in D-5. The only thing I can think of is, Tiffin and North Liberty are pretty much right on Interstates that connect to the Quad Cities, while Solon is a bit further from the four-lanes. Seems like a lame reason, but again, I dunno.

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Moving on to 2A, they pick up the nine former 3A schools that fell into their class. They also pick up five former 1A schools that have grown enough to make it to 2A, which means 15 programs that were 2A last season are dropping to 1A.

2A D-1

• Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
• Central Lyon/George-Little Rock
• MOC Floyd Valley
• OKOBOJI MILFORD (up from 1A)
• Sheldon
• Sioux Center

2A D-2

• ALGONA (from 3A)
• Clarion-Goldfield-Dows
• Estherville Lincoln Central
• Garner-Hayfield-Ventura
• Southeast Valley, Gowrie
• SPIRIT LAKE (from 3A)

2A D-3

• Clear Lake
• Crestwood
• Forest City
• Hampton-Dumont-CAL
• IOWA FALLS-ALDEN (from 3A)
• New Hampton

2A D-4

• Anamosa
• Waterloo Columbus
• Monticello
• North Fayette Valley
• Oelwein
• Waukon

2A D-5

• Camanche
• LOUISA-MUSCATINE (up from 1A)
• Mount Vernon
• TIPTON (up from 1A)
• WEST BURLINGTON/NOTRE DAME (from 3A)
• West Liberty

2A D-6

• Albia
• Central Lee
• Davis County
• Eddyville-Blakesburg-Fremont
• Mid-Prairie
• Williamsburg

2A D-7

• BENTON (from 3A)
• NEVADA (from 3A)
• Roland-Story
• Union, La Porte City
• VINTON-SHELLSBURG (from 3A)
• West Marshall

2A D-8

• Centerville
• Chariton
• Clarke, Osceola
• DES MOINES CHRISTIAN (up from 1A)
• PCM, Monroe
• Saydel

2A D-9

• ATLANTIC (from 3A)
• GREENE COUNTY (from 3A)
• Carroll Kuemper
• OA-BCIG (up from 1A)
• Red Oak
• Shenandoah

This map pretty much makes sense. It's a bit of a haul from Central Lee to Williamsburg, but then, it's a bit of a haul from Central Lee to anywhere.

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Class 1A takes the 15 programs dropping down from 2A, but remember five former 1As got big and moved up to 2A. They also take on five Class A schools that are moving up to 1A for this cycle, which means I count 17 programs that will be dropping into Class A this fall.

1A D-1

• Emmetsburg
• Sibley-Ocheydan
• Unity Christian
• West Lyon
• WEST SIOUX (up from A)
• Western Christian

1A D-2

• Eagle Grove
• Madrid
• Ogden
• POCAHONTAS AREA (from 2A)
• SOUTH CENTRAL CALHOUN (from 2A)
• South Hamilton

1A D-3

• APLINGTON-PARKERSBURG (from 2A)
• Denver
• Lake Mills
• NORTH BUTLER (up from A)
• OSAGE (from 2A)
• Sumner-Fredericksburg

1A D-4

• DYERSVILLE BECKMAN (from 2A)
• Bellevue
• CASCADE (from 2A)
• North Cedar
• NORTHEAST, GOOSE LAKE (from 2A)
• West Branch

1A D-5

• Columbus, Columbus Junction
• MEDIAPOLIS (from 2A)
• Sigourney-Keota
• Van Buren
• Wapello
• Wilton

1A D-6

• DIKE-NEW HARTFORD (from 2A)
• EAST MARSHALL (from 2A)
• Jesup
• NORTH LINN (up from A)
• Iowa City Regina
• SOUTH HARDIN (from 2A)

1A D-7

• COLFAX-MINGO (up from A)
• Interstate 35, Truro
• Pella Christian
• Pleasantville
• Woodward Academy
• Woodward-Granger

1A D-8

• ACGC
• CLARINDA (from 2A)
• Mount Ayr
• Panorama
• Van Meter
• West Central Valley

1A D-9

• CHEROKEE, WASHINGTON (from 2A)
• EAST SAC COUNTY (from 2A)
• Missouri Valley
• MVAOCOU (up from A)
• Treynor
• UNDERWOOD (from 2A)

District 7 has that weird jog to take in Woodward Academy and Woodward-Granger. It seems like there must have been a smoother way to work out those centrally located schools, but I'm not going to try to come up with an option.

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And now, Class A. Since this class takes in all the remaining 11-player schools, there will actually be 62 members in this class. There will be 10 districts total, eight with 6 members and two with 7 members. Seventeen former 1A schools become A this fall, while five former As move up to 1A. Seven other programs will change to 8-player for the upcoming season.

A D-1

• Akron-Westfield
• LeMars Gehlen
• Hartley-Melvin-Sanborn
• HINTON (from 1A)
• MMCRU
• South O'Brien

A D-2

• ALTA-AURELIA (from 1A)
• IKM MANNING (from 1A)
• MANSON NORTHWEST WEBSTER (from 1A)
• Ridge View
• Sioux Central
• Fort Dodge St. Edmond

A D-3

• BELMOND-KLEMME (from 1A)
• Algona Garrigan
• Graettinger-Terril/Ruthven-Ayrshire
• North Union
• West Fork
• West Hancock

A D-4

• CENTRAL SPRINGS (from 1A)
• Nashua-Plainfield
• Mason City Newman
• Postville
• Saint Ansgar
• SOUTH WINNESHIEK (from 1A)
• Starmont

A D-5

• Alburnett
• CLAYTON RIDGE (from 1A)
• Edgewood-Colesburg
• Lisbon
• MAQUOKETA VALLEY (from 1A)
• MFL MAR MAC (from 1A)

A D-6

• Belle Plaine
• BGM
• Cardinal, Eldon
• DURANT (from 1A)
• HIGHLAND, RIVERSIDE (from 1A)
• Pekin

A D-7

• BCLUW (from 1A)
• East Buchanan
• GMG
• Grundy Center
• Hudson
• North Tama
• Wapsie Valley

A D-8

• CENTRAL DECATUR (from 1A)
• Grand View Christian
• Lynnville-Sully
• Martensdale-St. Marys
• North Mahaska
• Wayne

A D-9

• AHSTW (from 1A)
• Earlham
• Nodaway Valley
• Riverside, Oakland
• Southwest Valley
• Council Bluffs St. Albert

A D-10

• Lawton-Bronson
• LOGAN-MAGNOLIA (from 1A)
• TRI-CENTER (from 1A)
• West Monona
• Westwood
• Woodbury Central

This seems like a fairly well thought-out map. You can disregard the weird shape of D-3; there aren't any members in that south extension, it's just taking up space.

So there we go. The remaining schools, 65 of them, will be playing 8-man football (eight districts of 8 and one district of 9), but it's getting really late tonight for me to be drawing any more maps. 

Breaking News ... And, uh, oh yeah, Xavier Won State

I'm only two months late, give me a break.

The Xavier Saints won their second state football title in school history (and their first in Class 3A) with a convincing win over three-time defending champion Pella last November. Xavier first defeated a tough Solon squad in the semifinals, using some big yardage plays to roll up points on the state's number one scoring defense. Xavier is now on a 13-game winning streak, and a 27-game regular season win streak (their last regular season loss was to Iowa City Regina in Week 8 of 2014). Since moving to Class 3A, the Saints are 41-6, 36-4 vs 3A competition (2-1 vs 4A, 3-1 vs 1A). The only 3A teams to defeat Xavier in 4 seasons are Pella (twice), Decorah, and Western Dubuque.

Enough of the past. On to what's coming, which is actually a big change in how the state is aligning classes as well as how playoff teams are determined. I mentioned some months ago the IHSAA was going to change the numbers of schools in each class for the 2018-19 seasons: 4A will drop to 42 (instead of 48); 3A/2A/1A will drop to 54 (instead of 56); and A/8-player takes the remaining programs. For 2018 this means there will be 62 teams in Class A and 65 in 8-player.

So how will the new districts shake out? Well, since the state claimed the major reason for the change was to reduce travel by increasing non-district/cross-class games with nearby opponents, the only logical thing would be smaller districts than the 8-team setup of the past two years. Yesterday we found out - 4A will be made up of 7 6-team districts; 3A/2A/1A will have 9 6-team districts; A will have 8 districts of 6 and 2 districts of 7; and 8-player will have 7 districts of 8 and 1 9-team district. For most classes, then, there will be 4 non-district games, and 5 games within the district to determine district standings.

Every school will submit a 7-team "wish list" to the state for prospective non-district opponents, and if two schools have each other on their list, they'll likely get paired up for a game. However - and this is pretty important - it's the state that's going to make the final determination on schedules. If the IHSAA thinks a game between Cedar Rapids Kennedy and Xavier makes sense, it's going on the schedule regardless of who Kennedy or Xavier had on their wish list.

On to playoff qualifying. In the recent past, only the results of district games were used in determining playoff teams. It all depended on your finish in your district, then ties were settled via head-to-head, the 17-point tiebreaker (from district games only), and the alphabet. Non-district games didn't have anything to do with the playoffs. If you go further back in the mists of time, the state would dock playoff points from teams who played opponents in a lower class - if Cedar Falls, for example, played 3A West Delaware, a win would have earned them fewer points than a win over a 4A team; and a loss would have been crippling.

All that is out the door for 2018-19. EVERY game of the 9-game season now is counted toward playoff qualifying. Here's how it works:

• District champions are in. This includes teams who tie for the district championship. So for 4A, there's 7 guaranteed spots; for 3A/2A/1A, there's 9; for A there's 10, and for 8-player there's 8.
• The rest of the 16-team field (9 for 4A, 7 for 3A/2A/1A, 6 for A and 8 for 8-player) will be wild card entries. They will be determined by an RPI rating, similar to what the NCAA uses for college basketball.
• The RPI is set up this way: 37.5% of the value is based on the team's winning percentage, for all 9 games; another 37.5% is based on the winning percentage of that team's opponents; and the final 25% is based on the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents. It's a bit complicated, but anyone would be able to figure it based on wins and losses. No more 17-point tiebreaker, no more second-place district finish automatically in the playoffs.

The state will start posting RPIs for every team starting in Week 4 of the season, with what I assume will be weekly updates. So anyone can look at the IHSAA website and keep track of their chances as the season goes on.

There's a couple of good things about this. Larger schools won't have to worry about being docked for playing a smaller-class opponent. Xavier, for example, should be somewhat valued as an opponent, as their winning percentage ought to be high and help boost the RPI of whatever team plays them. It also makes every game count towards playoffs, so non-district games will no longer have the feel of glorified exhibition matches.

Given the relatively small numbers of opponents, though (particularly in comparison with the over 300 NCAA D-I basketball programs), it's likely the difference in RPIs will be minuscule. It's easy to see teams make the playoffs or take a better seeding by virtue of a few thousandths or even ten-thousandths of a point on the RPI. Now, that's just the way the system works - but considering how much control the IHSAA exerts on scheduling, it's pretty easy to predict a school left out of the playoffs howling bloody murder because their state-controlled schedule ended up giving them a fractionally lower RPI than another school.

So there's the big news of yesterday. Today the state will announce official classifications as well as the districts for 2018-19. Check back here, and I'll have maps and everything.