Sizing Up The Playoffs

It's hard to believe, but there's just two weeks left in the high school football regular season. That means we can make some pretty good guesses at who's going to be in and who's going to be out when the playoffs kick off on November 1.

A reminder of the system in Iowa, at least for Class 3A: All nine district champions are automatic qualifiers, while the next seven teams with the highest RPI are selected as at-large teams, for a playoff field of 16. If there's a tie for the title in any district, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head - if any team in the tie beat all the other teams involved, they are crowned as the champion. In any other case, the state will select the team with the best RPI as the district winner, and the other teams will go into the at-large pool.

For playoff bracketing, the state will attempt to set up as close to a truly seeded 1 through 16 bracket as possible, but there are some complications:

• Since there are 8 first-round games but 9 district champions, the district winner with the lowest RPI will have to travel in the first round.
• That means a district runner-up with a particularly high RPI might end up on the road against a district champion that's actually seeded lower.
• If it's at all possible, the first- and second-place finishers in a district won't be paired together in the first round.
• Geography is a final factor. The state will try to avoid huge travel distances in setting up the brackets.

That's about it. Here's how things look as we get ready for the last two games.

DISTRICT 1

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON can win the district this week with a win over Denison-Schleswig plus a Storm Lake loss to Sioux City Heelan. Regardless of what happens this Friday, Sergeant Bluff-Luton will also win the district if they beat Storm Lake next week.

STORM LAKE needs to win this week and next, plus a Spencer loss to either Le Mars or Heelan, to take the district outright.

SPENCER can win the district outright with two wins plus two losses by Sergeant Bluff-Luton.

There are several tie scenarios, some with three teams, some with four. Since there is no way to have a tie where one team defeated all the others, all of these would end up being decided with the highest RPI taking the district. From my rough calculations, I think Sergeant Bluff-Luton would come out on top of every tie scenario.

Heelan is mathematically eliminated; Denison-Schleswig and Le Mars are RPI eliminated.

If Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Storm Lake, and Spencer all win this week, they could end up in a tie if both Storm Lake and Spencer win in Week 9. Those same three teams would also tie if Spencer wins this week while Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Storm Lake both lose, should Storm Lake defeat Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Spencer lose to Heelan, and Le Mars defeat Denison-Schleswig in Week 9. 

There's a very unlikely three-way scenario. Sergeant Bluff-Luton loses twice, and Storm Lake loses to Heelan before defeating Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Should Spencer lose to both Le Mars and Heelan, the winner of the Le Mars vs Denison-Schleswig game would be involved in a tie with SBL and Storm Lake. 

Then we have the four-way tie scenarios:

• Sergeant Bluff-Luton has to lose to both Denison-Schleswig and Storm Lake
• Storm Lake has to lose to Heelan this week before beating Sergeant Bluff-Luton next week
• Spencer loses to either Le Mars or Heelan
• Either Le Mars wins twice (over Spencer and Denison-Schleswig) or Denison-Schleswig defeats Le Mars (in addition to Sergeant Bluff-Luton)

DISTRICT 2

This basically boils down to the winner of DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES vs CARROLL in Week 9. Either the winner of that game has zero district losses, or they each have one loss with the outcome deciding the head-to-head winner.

WEBSTER CITY has a narrow path: they have to beat Dallas Center-Grimes and Boone, then hope Carroll loses to Humboldt this week before defeating Dallas Center-Grimes in Week 9. There's no other way for Webster City to make it.

A three-way tie results if Webster City beats Dallas Center-Grimes and Boone; Carroll defeats Humboldt; and Dallas Center-Grimes wins over Carroll. That tie would be resolved by RPI, and it would almost certainly be Dallas Center-Grimes. That means a Carroll win this Friday probably eliminates Webster City completely.

Humboldt, Boone, and Perry are all eliminated.

DISTRICT 3

If INDEPENDENCE defeats Waverly-Shell Rock Friday while DECORAH loses to Waterloo East, Indee will take the district. If Decorah wins over Waterloo East, the winner of next week's Indee-Decorah game takes the title.

Even with a loss this Friday Indee can take the district outright as long as they beat Decorah next week. Waterloo East could match Indee's district record by beating Decorah and West Delaware, but Indee takes that head-to-head.

WATERLOO EAST has an outside shot at the championship; they need to beat Decorah and West Delaware, while Independence loses to both Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah.

With two losses by Independence, it's possible for a three-way, or even a five-way tie for the district title. Any of those possibilities would come down to RPI, and Independence would almost certainly come out on top.

Charles City is mathematically eliminated; Waverly-Shell Rock and West Delaware are essentially RPI eliminated. 

Here are the specific tie scenarios: In addition to two Indee losses, Decorah must lose to Waterloo East, while West Delaware has to defeat Waterloo East (otherwise either Decorah or Waterloo East would actually win the district). In this scenario, it's possible - perhaps even likely - to result in a five-way tie (given West Delaware and Waverly-Shell Rock also defeating Charles City). In all the tie scenarios, there's no clear-cut head-to-head winner, so it goes to RPI - almost certainly Independence.

DISTRICT 4

WESTERN DUBUQUE wins the district with one more victory, either this Friday over Marion or next week over Maquoketa.

If Western Dubuque loses twice, the winner of XAVIER vs CENTER POINT-URBANA wins the district with a win in Week 9 (Xavier plays Marion; CPU takes on Wahlert).

Even with two losses, Western Dubuque would win any potential three-way tie scenario, if Maquoketa loses this week to Wahlert. If Maquoketa defeats Wahlert and Western Dubuque, and the winner of Xavier vs CPU loses in Week 9, having Maquoketa involved throws that tie situation to RPI ... and Xavier would take the district in that scenario.

Marion is mathematically eliminated, while Maquoketa and Wahlert are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 5

If NORTH SCOTT defeats Clear Creek-Amana or if DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION beats Iowa City Liberty this week, Liberty is eliminated (even with a potential three-way tie, North Scott will have the best RPI).

Unless they both lose Friday, Week 9's Assumption-North Scott game will be for the district title.

IOWA CITY LIBERTY has a slim shot - they have to defeat Assumption this Friday and have North Scott lose, then have Assumption defeat North Scott next week while Liberty wins over Clinton. That puts Liberty in a tie with Assumption, and Liberty takes the head-to-head.

Clear Creek-Amana, Central DeWitt, and Clinton are all eliminated.

DISTRICT 6

SOLON wins the district with a victory, either this week over Keokuk or next Friday over Fairfield.

If Solon loses twice, WASHINGTON can take the district with wins over Fairfield and Mount Pleasant; MOUNT PLEASANT can win the championship by beating Fort Madison and Washington.

Even with two losses, Solon wins any tiebreaker with possible 3-2 district teams, except Keokuk (who would have to defeat Solon to get to 3-2). In that case, though, either Washington or Mount Pleasant would also have to be involved in the tie, which throws it to RPI, and Solon is a solid leader there.

Fairfield is mathematically eliminated; Keokuk and Fort Madison are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 7

A PELLA win over Newton plus a Grinnell loss to South Tama this week gives Pella the title.

Even with a loss this week, if Pella defeats Grinnell in Week 9, Pella wins the district.

GRINNELL can win the district with a win this week plus a win over Pella next week, as long as Oskaloosa loses to either Knoxville or South Tama.

OSKALOOSA needs two wins plus two Pella losses. That would put Oskaloosa into a tie with Grinnell, which Osky wins by head-to-head.

I believe all the potential tie scenarios would go to RPI. It appears Pella has the edge in those instances.

Pella over Newton/losing to Grinnell, along with Grinnell over South Tama and two Oskaloosa wins would be the three-way scenario. If Pella loses twice, along with a Grinnell loss to South Tama, an Oskaloosa loss, and two wins by either Newton or Knoxville, there could be a five-way tie.

South Tama is mathematically eliminated; Newton and Fort Madison are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 8

If NORWALK defeats Ballard this Friday, they win the district.

BALLARD can win the district by beating Norwalk and North Polk, plus a Carlisle loss to either North Polk or Bondurant-Farrar.

CARLISLE can take the title with two wins plus Norwalk losses to Ballard and Gilbert.

 A potential three-way tie actually looks like it might give the RPI nod to Carlisle. That requires wins by Ballard and Carlisle this Friday, plus wins by Norwalk, Ballard, and Carlisle next week.

Bondurant-Farrar and North Polk have an opportunity to reach into a tie with a 3-2 district record; that requires two losses by Norwalk plus additional losses by Ballard and Carlisle. In that event, I believe Norwalk still takes the championship by RPI.

Gilbert has been mathematically eliminated; Bondurant-Farrar and North Polk are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 9

GLENWOOD wins the district with a victory over Lewis Central this week. They also take the title if they lose Friday, with a win over Creston plus a Lewis Central loss to ADM next week.

HARLAN wins the district by defeating Creston and Winterset if Glenwood loses to both Lewis Central and Creston.

LEWIS CENTRAL takes the outright title with wins over Glenwood and ADM, plus a Harlan loss.

Wins by Lewis Central and Harlan this Friday, along with wins by all three district leaders in Week 9, result in a three-way tie decided by RPI. There's also several unlikely scenarios for 3-2 ties, requiring two losses by Glenwood and losses by Lewis Central and Harlan, along with possibly the winner of the Winterset/ADM game. In any of the tie situations, RPI goes to Lewis Central.

Field Position For The Win

It wasn't just field position that led to Xavier's 42-0 cruising past Dubuque Wahlert Catholic last Friday night ... but it sure helped. The Saints' first possession started at Wahlert's 36 after a poor punt. Their second started at their 28 after a good punt return by Jaxon Rexroth. Right out of the box, it was 14-0, and the Golden Eagles could do nothing against the Xavier defense.

Wahlert was able to muster only two first downs - that's right, two - and they both came in the first half. Xavier took the second-half kickoff and used 15 plays to roll 66 yards, using up almost half of the third quarter, going up 35-0 and starting the continuous clock. Wahlert's second-half offense? Nine plays, including a lost fumble. Zero first downs.

Xavier was unable to rack up big offensive numbers due to the short field, so it was nothing like the record-setting Maquoketa game. Nick Lemke did run for three TDs (4, 4, and 1 yards) and Carter Diebold continued to be perfect on extra points (26 for 26).

But it was all a table setting preliminary for this week. The District 4 title will almost certainly be decided Friday in Epworth when Xavier takes on Western Dubuque. The Bobcats have been generally ranked first in almost every 3A poll since the season began, with the Saints ranked no lower than 3rd. Stat-wise, it's almost dead even: Xavier leads D-4 in rushing with 205.3 ypg, Western Dubuque is third with 174.8. Western Dubuque leads in passing with 205.3 ypg, Xavier is third with 161.7. In total offense, they're only about 13 ypg apart (WD 380.2, Xavier 367.0).

Defensively it's similar: Xavier has the top defense in the district across the board, Western Dubuque is second. While Western Dubuque is gaining about 13 yards per game more than Xavier, Xavier is allowing about 25 yards per game fewer than the Bobcats (Xavier 165.2, WD 191.0). Xavier's average score is 35-7.6, Western Dubuque's is 35.8-6.5.

The numbers don't get any closer.

And winning the district could be a big deal. District winners get a home playoff game in round 1 (well, eight of the nine district winners, anyway), whereas at-large teams have to travel. While seeding is based on RPI - and both Xavier and Western Dubuque are currently in the top 4 of RPI in the state - that doesn't matter for home field in the first round. So, whoever loses this game will probably end up with a top 8 (at worst) RPI, yet be forced to travel to play a district winner like Independence, or North Scott, or Pella. (Probably not Solon, as they'll have a high RPI and it would be unlikely to punish that with a visit from either of these two teams in the first round.)

This is what makes October football exciting! There's definitely something to play for, and this looks like the game of the year in Class 3A in the entire state.

There's 30 ... And 31 ... And

The Xavier Saints football train just keeps rolling, with two more wins in the past two weeks taking their unbeaten streak up to 31 and aiming towards a pretty darn significant matchup with district foe Western Dubuque on October 11.

Two weeks ago West Delaware came to town. The Hawks are one of the consistently strong Class 3A programs in eastern Iowa, with a long string of playoff appearances that was snapped with an off year last season. WD started this year with a surprising two-point loss to Dubuque Wahlert, but had won the next two handily. Stat-wise, the defensive numbers shown by the Hawks in the first three weeks were almost identical to Xavier's (although Xavier had played a stronger schedule, with their opponents having a combined record of 4-5 compared to WD's opponents at 1-8).

As expected, Xavier's defense was pretty much on lockdown against West Delaware. The Hawks gained only 12 yards passing while picking up 101 on the ground - however, 51 of those 101 yards came on one play, a breakaway run by Wyatt Voelker for the Hawks' first TD. West Delaware's second score came after a muffed punt gave them the ball at the Xavier 20, and then 23 more rushing yards came on Jared Voss' TD run (so two scoring plays accounted for 74 yards rushing ... other than that, West Delaware ran 30 times for 27 yards - take away the two TDs and the Hawks averaged one yard per play).

Xavier's offense got some big plays, too. In the first quarter Kaiden Cuevas got behind the secondary and Tyler DuPont found him for a 63-yard score. Another Saints TD came after West Delaware muffed a punt, but then Xavier also got second-quarter scoring passes of 38 and 39 yards (a lot of wide-open room in the Hawk secondary) for a 28-6 Saints lead. Not much happened but defense in the second half until that late muffed punt, and the final score was 28-12.

On to district play, and the Maquoketa Cardinals. Maquoketa started 2-0, their best start in several years, but then dropped games to a powerful Independence team and a so-so Mount Vernon squad to come in at 2-2. The Cardinals have a pretty good ground game, but their defensive numbers showed them to be pretty weak on that side of the ball.

Xavier took advantage, rolling up a school-record 619 yards of total offense and reaching the end zone seven times in a 52-20 victory. It could have been even worse, as Carter Diebold missed short field goals right before halftime and again on the first drive of the third quarter. DuPont had 333 yards passing and TD throws to Tyler Wilken (77 and 27 yards), Cuevas (35 yards) and Mac Mahurin (14 yards). Cuevas ran for two more scores, and both he and Jack Lux ended with over 100 yards rushing.

Maquoketa, like West Delaware, was able to hit some big plays to get their points. Kannon Coakley threw two long TD passes to Caiden Atienza (69 and 31 yards) and Connor Becker broke an 85-yard run for another score ... but again, take away those three long plays and the Cardinals only had 87 yards of offense (just over 2 yards per play, without those three big ones).

Xavier's defense continues to be solid, even with that propensity to give up the long touchdown (they still rank tops in the district allowing about 185 total yards per game, less than 70 yards per game rushing), and the explosion against Maquoketa vaulted the Saints to the top offense in the district as well (388 yards per game, over 200 yards rushing).

This Friday, it's a trip to the Rock Bowl at Loras College to take on Dubuque Wahlert. The Golden Eagles, with a new coach coming from NCAA Division II Lindenwood, had that solid close win over West Delaware to open the season, then blew out Clinton for their second win - but they also have losses to Davenport Assumption, Central DeWitt, and Western Dubuque. Wahlert has the district's number two rushing offense, but they don't throw the ball very well and have only an average defense.

Which means, for you onlookers, that the October 11 matchup between Xavier and Western Dubuque will most likely decide the District 4 champion, with the winner almost certainly at home for the first round playoff game while the loser would have to go on the road. Xavier hasn't been on the road for a playoff game (except for the Dome) since 2011, and never as a 3A team (the Saints have been district champions all five years in 3A).

But first - Wahlert.

Domination?

When you outgain your opponent by something close to 3 to 1, and rack up 22 first downs to their 5, you expect a blowout on the scoreboard. That isn't quite what happened at Brady Street Stadium on this third week of the high school football season, but Xavier still ran their winning streak to 29 straight with a 17-0 shutout of the previously undefeated Davenport Assumption Knights.

On a steamy, sultry night with the threat of thunderstorms looming, Xavier came out of the box looking to run all over the Knights. On the Saints' first possession they used 11 plays to move 73 yards, mostly on the ground, and scored on a 3-yard run from Jack Lux. It was 7-0, and it looked like more would be coming shortly.

Xavier's defense did its thing - holding Assumption to just 11 yards on the ground and 24 total in the first quarter - but the offense couldn't quite regain that opening swagger. Their next drive ended with a punt near midfield, and the drive after that saw a missed field goal from 39 yards out. The Knights, though, only crossed midfield once in the first half, and that was by a single yard.

After the missed field goal, Xavier held Assumption to a three-and-out, and then went back to what worked in the first quarter. Another 11-play drive, this one covering 55 yards and using the clock to near perfection, ended with one tick left in the half when Carter Diebold drilled another field goal try right through from 22 yards out. It was 10-0 at the half, but felt like it should have been plenty more.

The Saints would receive the second-half kickoff, and surely they'd pound it right in for more points, right? Well, no. On the third play, Tyler DuPont's off-target throw on the rollout was intercepted by Assumption. The Knights did get one first down on a pass interference penalty, but only got to the Xavier 36 before punting. Three plays after that - DuPont was intercepted again, on a deep throw near the Assumption 30. The Knights could do nothing against the Xavier defense that time, but on the Saints' next possession, Tyler Wilken fumbled the ball after a catch. Three straight turnovers on three possessions is enough to stifle any kind of momentum.

But then - turnabout can be fair play. After Assumption's best play of the night - a pass from Tyler Kulhanek to Simon Weitz on the far sideline, where Weitz evaded the first defender and spun downfield to the Xavier 40 - Kulhanek went to the well one time too often. His long pass down the middle of the field was overthrown and intercepted by Jaxon Rexroth, who saw the Saints defenders turn into blockers and clear the way for nice return all the way to the Assumption 38. On 3rd and 8, a quick give to fullback Nick Lemke up the middle burst into a 21-yard gain, and on the first play of the fourth quarter, DuPont kept the ball on the option to the left, cut upfield behind a block and dove into the end zone. That made it 17-0, Assumption would gain a total of 17 yards in the final quarter, and the Saints stayed unbeaten.

Plus the storms didn't arrive until just after the stadium cleared out, so that made it a win-win for everybody (well, except the Knights). Now Xavier gets an extra day to recover, with West Delaware coming to Saints Field next Friday for the final non-district game of the season. West Delaware surprisingly lost to Dubuque Wahlert the first week, but convincingly rolled over Marion last week. What kind of Hawks team do we have - the consistent 3A power with multiple district championships and playoff appearances, or the middling-record squad we saw last year? Who knows. We'll get a good idea next week.

Getting Under Way

The first two games of the 2019 high school football season are in the books, and Xavier continues their winning streak (now up to 28 straight) - although not without some drama.

The Saints rolled over Iowa City Regina 35-0 in their opener. Hosting the Regals on brand-new Field Turf at Saints Field, Tyler DuPont stepped in at quarterback in place of the graduated Quinn Schulte and looked very much at home, throwing for 126 yards and a score while running for 61 yards and two more TDs. While seniors Kaiden Cuevas and Nick Banowetz were listed at starting tailback, Cuevas did not play (I think he might have hurt himself during pregame warmups) and Banowetz never got a carry. Instead, junior Jack Lux came in during the Saints' second series, and on his first carry ran for 57 yards to make his presence felt. Lux would finish with 111 yards, a fine entrance to varsity play.

The Regals, meanwhile, were able to move the ball through the air (Ashton Cook threw for 168 yards) but had almost no rushing attack against the Xavier defense. On Regina's one drive deep inside Saint territory, a bad snap over Cook's head resulted in a turnover - one which Xavier converted into a touchdown. Then on the next possession a Cook pass was intercepted on the right side by Jakob Forslund, and the Xavier linebacker returned it 38 yards for a pick-six.

The following week was, well, not exactly the same. Xavier made the trip up to Decorah, taking on a Vikings team that had been blown out by Class 2A power Waukon the week before. Xavier was unable to move the ball on their first possession, but after a punt, Decorah put together a long, pounding drive that used most of the first quarter. Briggs Duwe was able to find Logan Halverson, mostly, through the air, and the Vikings could get just enough on the ground to keep the drive going. Decorah finished off the drive when Duwe faked a handoff up the middle and strolled almost unnoticed around the left side into the end zone.

Neither team could get much going for a while in the first half, but Xavier finally made something happen late in the second quarter. Aided by a couple of big penalties against Decorah, the Saints moved to the 13 yard line. DuPont passed to Mac Mahurin for 10 yards, then after one more play the pair connected again, this time for a 3-yard TD to tie the game with 38 seconds left.

Decorah wasn't done. Cael Luzum returned the kickoff to midfield, then Xavier was called for two pass interference penalties in three plays that put Decorah at the Saints 16. Duwe had two receivers run out patterns to the right, and found the deeper one, Dawson Palmer, for the score with seven seconds on the clock. Xavier, which had never trailed at halftime in the entire 2018 regular season, was now down 14-7 at the half of their second game of the year.

The third quarter was far, far different. On Decorah's second play, a hard Xavier tackle stripped the ball from Andrew Magner, and the Saints recovered at the 20. It took just three plays to score, with DuPont pushing in from the 1. A high snap on the extra point try caused DuPont to scramble for time, and he was able to find Ethan Hurkett in the end zone for the 2-point conversion and a 15-14 lead. After forcing a three and out, Xavier's offense went back to work. This drive took only five plays, the last one a great 34-yard run from Cuevas, who followed a Nick Lemke block off-tackle and fought off Vikings defenders downfield for the score. Another stop of Decorah led to another punt, and another TD drive, this one 61 yards in eight plays, to finish the quarter with DuPont's second TD and a 29-14 lead. Xavier would tack on another fourth quarter score on a Jack Lux drive (he carried the ball four times in a five-play drive, accounting for all 64 yards and a TD).

So a shaky start in game two for Xavier, but a solid finish and another good overall performance. Game three will be a short turnaround, with a Thursday night game at Brady Street Stadium in Davenport against Assumption - a team that looks like they've figured things out as well after a rough 2018. The Knights have outscored their opponents 84-7, and are rolling up some big rushing yard numbers. It will be up the Saints defense to see if they can slow them down.

The Clock Is Ticking

It's just over two weeks before high school football gets underway in Iowa for 2019. Well, technically, just over a week, for those schools with Week 0 games (including my old alma mater, the Cardinal Comets!) - ten Class A and 1A teams have games August 23, along with 22 eight-man teams (and then New London has a game in Wisconsin on the 24th).

But for most Iowa high school teams, including Xavier, the action begins the last week of August. What are some things to look forward to in 2019?

Xavier will be defending their back-to-back Class 3A state titles and their 26-game winning streak. The Saints are facing a strong challenge this season, with only three starters back from last year. And, after having a Schulte take at least a few snaps at quarterback every season since 2010, there aren't any Schultes left on the roster. Pretty much the entire starting lineup will need to be rebuilt, but Coach Duane Schulte has been here before. Last year's juniors got playing time throughout the season (with an average victory margin of 30 points over the past two seasons, everybody gets to see the field), and the tradition of success is a long-standing one at Xavier. The Saints haven't had a losing record since 2004 and have reached the playoffs every season since 2006, with 31 playoff wins, eight Dome playoff appearances (including five championship games) and three state titles.

Another thing to look forward to is brand new Field Turf at Saints Field. When Xavier opened in 1998 the football field wasn't ready at the start of the year (the Saints played at least one home game at Kingston Stadium), and by the end of the season it was discovered the field was a soggy mess. After being re-done for the 1999 season and beyond, Saints Field had a large crown down the center for drainage - a crown that often had visiting teams crying foul about the home-field advantage of playing on that slope (even though it was completely within the limits for a regulation field). Now, for 2019, a donor ponied up the cash to install Field Turf, which was completed over the summer, and now the Saints have a level, weather-proof surface to practice and play on.

The Saints begin their season with Iowa City Regina, a longtime Class 1A power. Regina had a down year in 2018, missing the playoffs for the first time in, well, practically forever. Coach Marv Cook has bunch of former Hawkeyes on his coaching staff, and he'll have his team ready. Regina has been facing the same problem almost every other Iowa high school team has been dealing with - low participation numbers. They typically have a few freshmen on the varsity squad just because they need the bodies (well, I mean, they're good freshmen - junior receiver Alec Wick will be making his third appearance against Xavier this year).

The other non-district games for the Saints are on the road at Decorah (a tough game this year, as the Vikings return some talented players), a Thursday night game at Davenport Assumption (another team that's had trouble getting enough kids out for football), and then back home facing West Delaware (a usual 3A power in northeast Iowa that had an unusual down season by their standards last year). The district games are home vs. Maquoketa (a struggling program that's making some strides), on the road at Dubuque Wahlert (another team that can't get bodies on the field, with a new coach this season), at last year's state champion runners-up Western Dubuque, then home for the final two games against Center Point-Urbana and Marion.

While Marion has been improving, they lose some important members of last year's team, and CPU still looks to be adjusting to the move to 3A - but that game at Western Dubuque is (at least from a preseason standpoint) the key game of 2019. Xavier handled the Bobcats easily in the regular season last year, winning 35-0 at home in a game that was first moved up two hours due to storms in the forecast, then delayed over three hours by lightning right after halftime. When they met again in the state championship, though, Western Dubuque stood toe-to-toe with Xavier, with the Saints not taking the lead for good until 10 minutes were left in the game.

The Bobcats bring back a lot of players in the so-called skill positions, with Calvin Harris at QB (if his commitment to play baseball at Ole Miss doesn't trump his senior year of football), running backs Jake Hosch and Ben Bryant, and receiver Payton Quagliano all returning. In my view, the Bobcats have to be the favorite in D-4 this season, and having the home field in their matchup against Xavier only strengthens their chances.

So, another little change this season to keep in mind - remember last year when the IHSAA brought the RPI calculation to bear, to determine at-large playoff qualifiers who did not win their district? In the first season of that system, the deal was all teams that tied for a district title automatically qualified for the playoffs, regardless of their RPIs. That could have potentially knocked some pretty strong contenders out of the playoffs entirely. With 16 slots and 7 districts, let's say two districts ended in three-way ties. Last year that would have meant 11 automatic qualifiers and only five at-large spots ... the sixth-strongest at-large RPI would have stayed home, with potentially a 5-4 team that tied in a weak district going to the playoffs instead. Well, that won't happen this year. Only district champions will be automatic qualifiers - if there's a two-way tie for a district, the team that won head-to-head gets the bid; if it's a three- or four-way tie, the highest RPI is considered the district champion. The other teams involved get thrown into the at-large pool with all the other non-winners of their districts. That guarantees only seven automatic qualifiers and the nine next-best RPIs get selected. I think that's a good move that better serves the purposes of the playoff field.

What that also means, though, is if Xavier loses to Western Dubuque this season, but the Bobcats drop another district game to, let's say, Marion. With both teams at 4-1 in the district, WD gets the automatic bid with their head-to-head win, regardless of how their RPI matches with Xavier. The Saints get put in the at-large pool, which likely gets them in (they had the third-best RPI in Class 3A last year, and no team with only one loss finished below 12th in RPI), but could very well mean road games in the playoffs. With the Saints' recent successes, the last road (non-Dome) playoff game Xavier had was their 2011 loss to Pleasant Valley - so it's been a while since the Saints had to go on the road in the playoffs.

But there's a long way to go before that first-round game November 1. In the meantime ... football is almost back! I can't wait!