Sunday, March 29, 2020

Why Not Look Ahead To August?

Things are pretty crazy in the world right now - businesses are shutting down for an indefinite time, there's no basketball, no baseball, no high school spring sports at all, everybody's hunkered down at home, March isn't going to end for about three more months, it's just a mess. But there's a little bright spot in the gloom - the IHSAA has released the high school football schedules for this fall. Surely the health situation will be improving by early summer, don't you think? And by August we'll be able to go back to school and have a normal calendar again, right? Right?

Let's just say we will and move on from there. Good. So - we have known for a little while that Xavier has been placed in Class 3A District 6, along with Benton Community, Clear Creek-Amana, Grinnell, Newton, and Oskaloosa. That's already a pretty tough district, as Xavier, Benton, and Oskaloosa were all playoff teams last year (Grinnell just barely missed out), and Newton was the only team with a losing record in 2019. Now we've gotten the non-district schedule posted, and Xavier's is, well, kind of a doozy. If you look at the opponents' records from last year (not a perfect judge of schedule strength, but about all we've got at the moment), Xavier has the toughest lineup in their district in 2020. The Saints' opponents went 59-31 last year, with five of the nine teams making the playoffs.

The Saints start out at home by facing last year's undefeated 3A state champions Western Dubuque. Week 2 is another home date with traditional powerhouse Waverly-Shell Rock (off a down 3-6 year in 2019), then Xavier goes back on the road for a rematch with North Scott, the team that ended the Saints' year with a playoff loss last season. Xavier plays at an improving 4A Linn-Mar (another playoff team) to end their non-district schedule. So it's gonna be tough. Let's look at some specifics of what everybody has coming back this fall.

First of all, Xavier loses a lot of starters from 2019, including some real talented players on the offensive and defensive lines and the linebacker corps. But Coach Duane Schulte is used to reloading - Xavier has gone 88-11 over the past eight seasons with a 16-year playoff streak: you can't do that with just an occasional good class - and there are some important cogs returning.

Jack Lux ran for 557 yards and 5 TDs sharing time at tailback last fall, and Nick Lemke added 184 yards and 4 scores as the starting fullback. Tyler Wilken caught 23 passes for almost 400 yards and 4 TDs, and Nick Kramer played a lot at tight end, with 5 catches for 90 yards. Jaxon Rexroth is the leading candidate to play quarterback this fall, as he and eventual starter Tyler DuPont were neck-and-neck for the starting spot during practice last August. Kicker Carter Diebold will be back, who was a perfect 39-for-39 on extra points and added four field goals as well. On the defensive side, Nick Mautino and Rexroth were starters all season, and Grant Reasner saw a lot of playing time at linebacker as a sophomore before going down with an injury late in the year. The Saints will need some new starters to step up to replace guys like Josh Volk, Ethan Hurkett (both at the University of Iowa this fall), and Jakob Forslund (joining Northwest Missouri State this season), but if Coach Schulte and the rest of the staff gets their new linemen to do their jobs, there's enough experience there for another playoff run.

NON-DISTRICT

Western Dubuque (at Xavier): The Bobcats had two tremendous back-to-back seasons in 2018 and 2019, reaching the state title game both years and winning it last season. But a lot of the key players for those teams are gone, like star quarterback Calvin Harris, running back Ben Bryant, speedster Will Burds and all-around stud Jake Hosch. Western Dubuque returns players with only about 22 carries on the ground last year and just eight pass attempts. Sawyer Naumann saw significant playing time last year, mainly on defense, while Tommy DeSollar caught 19 passes for 287 yards and 4 TDs. Much like Xavier, even with the loss of so many talented starters I have no doubt Coach Justin Penner will have the Bobcats back as a strong contender this fall.

Waverly-Shell Rock (at Xavier): Traditionally a tough 3A program (Xavier faced them in the playoffs three consecutive years), the Go-Hawks had a rough 3-6 season last year. They are returning most of the significant contributors from their ground game, including leading rusher Jonathan Wessel (405 yards, 3 TDs) along with McCrae Hagarty (401 yards, 3 TDs) and Donovan Wessel (254 yards). Donovan Wessel and Layne McDonald combined for 16 receptions for 200 yards, and were also among the leaders for Waverly-Shell Rock on the defensive side. If the Go-Hawks find a capable quarterback, they could have a decent year.

North Scott (at Eldridge): Xavier fans remember with disappointment the cold, wet night in Eldridge last November when the Lancers put up a suffocating defense before scoring a late touchdown to escape with a 9-3 win and end the Saints' season. However, looking at the stats, it appears North Scott may have the most challenging rebuilding job of all of Xavier's opponents this year. Returning players account for only about 116 rushing yards, about 180 receiving yards, and zero yards passing. Max Solis did have 11 of those catches. There are some strong returnees on the defensive side (which gave Xavier fits last November), including two-way starters on the line Joey Peterson and Carson McCaughey, as well as Carter Markham. The 2020 Lancers are similar to both Western Dubuque and Xavier in that there's a lot of moving parts that need to be replaced, but they may have the most unknowns of the three.

Linn-Mar (at Linn-Mar): Here's an interesting Metro opponent. When Xavier moved to 3A following the institution of districts in all classes in 2014, none of their former MVC mates wanted to continue to play Xavier ... except Linn-Mar, who faced the Saints in 2016-17 (that 2016 game was one of the most memorable comeback performances I've ever seen by Xavier). In 2020 the Lions are back on the schedule, and this time Coach Paul James has some dangerous returning weapons from a squad that went 6-3 and made the playoffs last year. Leading rusher Bricen White is back (790 yards and 6 TDs, along with 28 catches for 169 yards). Andrew Knipper wasn't the starting QB, but he did pass for 166 yards in 2019. Knipper and Jeron Senters also combined for 19 receptions and 243 yards. Leading tackler Clayton Maszynski (87 tackles and 3 interceptions) will be back, along with Senters' seven interceptions and a combined 76.5 tackles and three sacks from Cam Guenther and Chris Baker. I think Linn-Mar is poised for pretty good season this fall. NOTE: This game is scheduled for Thursday, September 17, to avoid the Iowa-Minnesota game being played the evening of September 18.

DISTRICT 6

Clear Creek-Amana (at Xavier): There are three strong contenders for the 2020 district crown, and the Clippers are one of them. CCA returns their leading passer, rusher, and receiver from last fall. Ryan Navara threw for 1249 yards and 12 TDs last year; Alex Figueroa rushed for 681 yards and 6 scores, and Harrison Rosenberg caught 20 passes for 249 yards and 3 TDs. Add to that Gage Freeman and Cole Pfister combining for 518 rushing yards and 9 scores, and a combined 633 receiving yards from Tom Johnson, TJ Boller, and Brock Reade, and there's a ton of offensive firepower down in Tiffin. Defensively, Boller and Navara both were big contributors along with Nate Beckmann and Jacob Curtin ... so yeah, the opening game of the district schedule could go a long way towards determining the D-6 champion.

Newton (at Xavier): The Cardinals dropped to Class 3A a few years ago after a long run in 4A, and while they haven't had a great deal of success, they've had a few pretty good teams. Last year really wasn't one of them as they finished 3-6; and not only are they not returning much experience from that squad, they'll be entering the year with a new head coach, Andy Swedenhjelm, as Ed Ergenbright stepped down after 17 years in that position. Josh Meyer returns as the kicker, good on 27 of 28 extra points. Otherwise no passing yards return, just 23 receiving yards are back, and Nathan Maki's 87 rushing yards are almost all the offense. Some talented defenders look to return, including Keith Moko, Zayvier Arguello, and Adam Mattes. It looks like a rebuilding year for Newton.

Oskaloosa (at Oskaloosa): The Indians have reached the playoffs four years in a row, but are 0-4 in the first round in those seasons (including a loss to Xavier in 2017). Oskaloosa has starting quarterback William Schultz returning (903 yards passing with 6 TDs, and 542 yards/4 scores rushing). Reed Brown ran for over 100 yards last year, and along with Cale Holmberg and Cooper Spry teamed for 22 receptions and 269 yards. Brown is one of the top defensive returnees, too, with 35.5 tackles and four interceptions.

Grinnell (at Grinnell): Here's the third top contender for the district, along with Xavier and CCA. The Tigers just missed out on the playoffs at 6-3 last year, and almost all their statistical leaders are back this fall. In all their offensive categories last year (passing, rushing, and receiving), seniors accounted for just one pass reception - that's it. Everything else was underclassmen coming back for 2020. Dallas Sauser threw for 1748 yards and 15 TDs as a freshman; Wyatt Hunter ran for 1589 yards and an eye-popping 23 TDs; and Cole McGriff hauled in 40 passes for 541 yards and four scores. Defensively leading tackler Eli Rose will be back (77 tackles, three sacks and an interception), while Hunter, Matayas Durr, and Owen Coffman combined for 124 tackles, five sacks, and four interceptions. It's safe to say as long as the Tigers have decent talent on the offensive/defensive lines this fall, they're going to be a formidable opponent. INTERESTING NOTE: Grinnell's head coach is Brian Sauser, who you may remember as Iowa City West's head coach from 2008-2013. He had assistant coaching jobs out-of-state in 2014-2016, accepted the head job at West Burlington in January 2017, then backed out of that job a few months later for another assistant post out-of-state. Sauser took over at Grinnell in 2018.

Benton Community (at Xavier): The season wraps up with the Benton Bobcats, who have bounced back and forth between 3A and 2A in recent years (they were in Xavier's 3A district in 2016/17). Benton had a strong 8-1 season last year in 2A before dropping their first-round playoff game, and they return leading rusher Lawrence Wallace (722 yards and 8 TDs) as well as leading receiver Jacob Brecht (67 catches for 831 yards and 7 TDs). Cade Timmerman and Landon Schmuecker each had over 100 yards receiving, as well. Defensively Brecht and Timmerman were strong tacklers last fall, along with Ethan Weirather and Austin Roos (those two accounted for four sacks each). If the Bobcats get a quarterback and have strong line play, they could be tough this season.

It's only March, but that's how the numbers line up for Xavier in 2020. It's going to be a tough district with Xavier, Grinnell, and Clear Creek-Amana all fighting it out (and Benton and Oskaloosa are no slouches). When you consider a non-district schedule with Western Dubuque, North Scott, and an improving Linn-Mar, another playoff appearance by the Saints is no certainty - but if they get there, they're definitely going to be battle-tested by November.