Playoffs for Class 3A, Districts 4 and 5

Just for local KMRY Radio purposes, I went ahead and ran the playoff scenarios for 3A districts 4 and 5, just as I did for 4A statewide. With Benton Community, Solon, Mount Vernon, and Vinton-Shellsburg in our listening area, this seemed valid for listeners. So ... I put in the work!

DISTRICT 4

Benton Community takes the district with a win over Central De Witt Week 9. They're assured of no worse than a tie for the district title with a win over Maquoketa this week. Even if they lose out, they still remain in the hunt for a playoff spot unless both Davenport Assumption and Central De Witt win out.

Davenport Assumption can win the district by winning out plus Benton losing out. They're guaranteed a playoff spot with a win over Vinton-Shellsburg plus Benton defeating Central De Witt. They can still be in the running with just a win over Maquoketa, but they will need a little help.

Central De Witt can take the district title by winning out plus an Assumption loss. They are in the playoffs with a win plus Assumption losing out - unless Mount Vernon wins out. There's several other scenarios here, as well.

Mount Vernon is in the playoffs by winning out plus Assumption losing out plus one Benton win. If Benton loses out and Mount Vernon wins out, they'll be involved in a tie for a playoff spot. They'll also be in a tie if they beat Central De Witt, Central De Witt beats Benton, and Assumption loses to Vinton-Shellsburg.

Vinton-Shellsburg is in the playoffs if they win out and Central De Witt loses out. There's also a few tie scenarios if they win out and Assumption and Central De Witt both go 1-1 the last two weeks, but RPI won't be good to the Vikings in a tie.

Maquoketa has been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:

• Benton    .6025
• Central De Witt   .5394
• Assumption    .5328
• Mount Vernon     .4998
• Vinton-Shellsburg    .4311

DISTRICT 5

Solon takes the district with a win over Grinnell. The Spartans are almost assured of a playoff spot right now - the only way they miss is if they lose out and Fairfield wins out. There's also a tie situation for the title if Solon loses to Grinnell and beats Keokuk while Fairfield wins out.

Grinnell can win the district by beating Solon plus a Fairfield loss. They're in the playoffs with a win, although if Fairfield wins out and Solon beats Keokuk that creates a three-way tie. They can actually still be alive with two losses if Washington wins out.

Fairfield can take the district title by winning out plus Solon losing out. They are at worst in a tie for a playoff spot by beating Grinnell, unless Grinnell beats Solon and Solon beats Keokuk.

Washington can get in a playoff tie by winning out plus Grinnell losing out, but it's doubtful RPI would get them in.

Keokuk and West Burlington have been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:

• Solon    .6668
• Grinnell   .5849
• Fairfield    .5368
• Washington     .4319

Checking the 4A Playoff Picture, Week 8

As I usually do this time of year, here's my spreadsheet-assisted, mathematically challenged, pen-and-paper enhanced 4A Playoff Picture Explainer! I can't promise there are no mistakes - I've gone over this a couple of times, but I'm only human, darn it, and I sure could have missed something somewhere.

I've tried to go through all the possibilities over the final two weeks of the Iowa high school football season (at least in 4A - this took me long enough, somebody's going to have to pay me to do more classes) and look at how things might shake out for playoff qualifying.

A reminder: the top two finishers in each district automatically make the playoffs, along with four at-large teams determined by RPI. Since RPI is changing with every week, I'm not going to get into that - I'm just looking at who could finish in the top two, or who could be involved in ties for those two spots. Ties (when they can't be resolved by head-to-head) will also be determined by RPI, so I'm not getting into that at this time, either.

DISTRICT 1

Webster City takes the district with a win. The only way they could miss the playoffs is by losing out while Denison/Schleswig wins out AND either Le Mars or Spencer wins out.

Spencer can win the district by winning out plus Webster City losing out. They're guaranteed a playoff spot with a win over Le Mars plus a loss by Denison/Schleswig.

Le Mars can take the district title by winning out plus Webster City losing out. They are in the playoffs if they win out. They'll also almost certainly be in with a win over Spencer plus a loss by Fort Dodge (there are some tie possibilities there, though).

Fort Dodge is in the playoffs by winning out plus Spencer losing out.

Denison/Schleswig is in the playoffs if (barring a couple of tie possibilities here):

• They win out
• Webster City loses out
• Either Le Mars wins out and Spencer loses out, or the reverse (Spencer wins out, Le Mars loses out)

Storm Lake has been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go indicates Le Mars and Denison/Schleswig will be in trouble with any tie situation:

• Spencer    .6059
• Webster City   .5736
• Fort Dodge    .5378
• Le Mars     .5036
• Denison/Schleswig    .4902

DISTRICT 2

Decorah takes the district with a win over Waverly-Shell Rock in Week 9. The Vikings are guaranteed a playoff spot with a Western Dubuque loss.

Waverly Shell-Rock can win the district with a win over Decorah plus a Western Dubuque loss. They are in the playoffs if they beat Western Dubuque.

Western Dubuque can take the district title by winning out plus Decorah losing out. The Bobcats are probably in if they win out, although there are some tie scenarios if Decorah beats Waterloo East and loses to Waverly-Shell Rock. They also will be in if Waverly-Shell Rock loses out (there are some ties involving Mason City here, but Mason City probably can't get high enough in the RPI to knock Western Dubuque out).

Mason City has a shot to get involved in a tie if they win out and Waverly-Shell Rock loses out, but as mentioned, their RPI will probably doom them. They're basically eliminated.

Waterloo East and Marion have been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:

• Waverly-Shell Rock     .6217
• Decorah     .5587
• Western Dubuque     .5152
• Mason City     .4537

DISTRICT 3

North Scott takes the title with a win over Fort Madison. They're assured a playoff spot with a win (there's a couple of three-way tie scenarios but they've got RPI locked up).

Fort Madison can win the district by winning out plus a Liberty loss. They're almost certainly in the playoffs with a win plus losses by both Burlington and Liberty.

Burlington takes the district if they win out and North Scott loses out. They lock up a playoff spot by winning out.

Iowa City Liberty can win the district if they win out and North Scott loses out. They are in the playoffs with a win plus losses by Burlington and Fort Madison.

Mount Pleasant and Clinton have been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:

• North Scott      .6890
• Fort Madison     .6435
• Burlington     .5334
• Iowa City Liberty     .4306

DISTRICT 4

Xavier will earn their seventh district title in the past eight years with a win. The only way they can miss the playoffs is by losing out plus Newton and Pella both winning out.

Pella can win the district by winning out plus Xavier losing out. They lock up a playoff spot by winning out, or by beating Clear Creek Amana plus a CR Washington loss to Oskaloosa (unless Xavier loses out, then some tie scenarios develop).

Clear Creek Amana can take the district title by winning out plus Xavier losing out. They're in the playoffs with a win over Pella plus a loss by Newton. There's a lot of tie scenarios if either Newton or CR Wash win out, although Washington would have little chance in the RPI.

Newton has a shot to win the district championship by winning out plus both Xavier and Pella losing out. They have some chances to get a playoff spot by winning out, but they'll need a variety of help (for example, Xavier losing to Oskaloosa while Pella wins out, or Pella losing out while Xavier beats Oskaloosa, and that's not considering the tie scenarios ... it gets a bit complicated).

Cedar Rapids Washington can get a playoff spot by winning out plus Clear Creek Amana losing out plus a Xavier win. There's a variety of tie scenarios, too, but the RPI is not Washington's friend.

Oskaloosa has been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:

• Xavier     .6781
• Clear Creek Amana     .6415
• Newton     .6106
• Pella     .5198
• CR Washington     .4828

DISTRICT 5

Norwalk takes the district with a win over Bondurant-Farrar in Week 9. The worst that can happen with any win is a playoff tie scenario; Norwalk locks up a playoff spot with losses by both Carlisle and Indianola.

Bondurant-Farrar can win the district by winning out, or with a win over Norwalk coupled with an Indianola loss to Boone. If they beat Indianola, they are in the playoffs. The Bluejays are out of the playoffs with two losses.

Indianola, somewhat surprisingly, needs the most help here. They get the district title by winning out plus Norwalk losing out. They are in the playoffs if Bondurant-Farrar loses out. There are some playoff spot tie scenarios in other situations, which could work out with Indianola's RPI ... but if either Bondurant-Farrar or Norwalk wins a game, Indianola might be in some trouble.

Carlisle has a shot to get involved in a tie if they win out plus help, but their RPI means they're basically eliminated.

Perry and Boone have been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:

• Bondurant-Farrar     .6492
• Indianola     .6319
• Norwalk     .6240
• Carlisle     .5275

DISTRICT 6

Winterset can win the district by beating Lewis Central Week 9. They lock up a playoff spot with a win or a Dallas Center-Grimes loss.

Lewis Central takes the district with a win over Winterset plus a Dallas Center-Grimes loss. They guarantee a spot in the playoffs by defeating Dallas Center-Grimes.

Dallas Center-Grimes can win the district by winning out plus Winterset losing out. They can earn a playoff spot by winning out plus Lewis Central losing out, or if Lewis Central loses out and Glenwood loses.

Glenwood might get into a three-way tie for the second playoff spot by winning out, with Lewis Central losing out and Dallas Center-Grimes losing, but because of RPI they are basically eliminated.

Des Moines Hoover and Council Bluffs Thomas Jefferson have been eliminated.

Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:

• Winterset     .6182
• Lewis Central     .5707
• Glenwood     .4853
• Dallas Center-Grimes     .3753

Xavier and the 2021 Schedule

I've dropped the ball ... Iowa high school football schedules for 2021 and 2022 have been out for, what, almost a month now? And I haven't gone over what this fall looks like for Xavier football yet? Yeah, well, that's how things go sometimes.

Things are definitely interesting. After last year's long and strange trip, we're back to 2-year cycles for classification/districts/schedules and a familiar 9-game schedule. Well, mostly. Let's recap.

In early 2020 the IHSAA released a one-year trial classification and schedule, as they planned to institute a new "grouping" system for Class 4A in an attempt to make competition a bit more level. The other classes weren't affected by that, but the plan was a test, so instead of the two-year cycle we've been familiar with for decades, this was going to be a one-year thing. Until the COVID-19 pandemic hit, shutting down businesses and activities last spring and throwing a wrench into everybody's plans for the year. Eventually the IHSAA said they'd hold off on the 4A restructure, and for 2020 all non-district games would become optional. The regular season also was shortened, in order to just put everybody into the playoffs.

Now it's 2021. The IHSAA has made one bold move: creating an entire new class, Class 5A, with the 36 largest schools by enrollment. That move had domino effects through the rest of the classes, as the enrollment breakpoints were changed - most of what was 3A last year is now in the new 4A, and so on. They also re-instituted the grouping system originally proposed for last season, just for Class 5A. Also, for the smaller classes (2A and below), the playoffs were expanded from 16 teams to 32, meaning just an 8-game regular season in those classes (teams that don't make the playoffs have the option to match up for a 9th game if they choose). Again, they're back to the 2-year cycle, so everything will be the same in 2022, except that the home fields will flip. This will no doubt throw a wrench into my thinking back to past seasons, as I've always been used to even years being the first of a cycle (it's always been that way) ... from now on, though, it's the odd year that's the first one. Arrgh. Stupid 2020.

I've rehashed most of these topics in my previous posts on districts, but now the schedules have been released, and there's even more to talk about. Specifically, look at Xavier - every Class 3A state champion since 2014 is on their schedule (Pella in 2014, 2015, and 2016; Xavier themselves in 2017 and 2018; Western Dubuque in 2019; and North Scott last year). The Saints face two teams that they have a losing record against (they're 3-8 against Cedar Rapids Washington and 0-2 against North Scott) - in all the years of Xavier football since 1998, the Saints have all-time losing records against only six teams, and that includes two teams they've only faced in the playoffs! North Scott has ended Xavier's season with playoff victories the last two years running (9-3 with a late TD on a cold wet night in Eldridge in 2019, and a 17-10 overtime win in last year's semifinal). CR Washington, by the way, is back on the schedule for the first time since Xavier moved from 4A to 3A after the 2013 season, and the Saints have won only one game against the Warriors since 2006. So there's a lot of interesting storylines here!

Here's what Xavier is looking at going into 2021:

XAVIER SAINTS

Last year's record: 10-1, lost in 3A semifinals

It was a COVID year, and it was just weird. Xavier managed to play its full schedule of 7 regular season games, unlike many other teams in Iowa, going undefeated and winning their district for the sixth time in seven years in Class 3A. It wasn't exactly smooth, though - following a comeback win over Western Dubuque in the opener, the Saints barely held on at Linn-Mar, then cruised through the rest of the regular season (including a dominating win over a dangerous Grinnell team). The Saints faced dogfights in the playoffs against Wahlert and a rematch with Grinnell, then had to come back to tie North Scott in their semifinal game before losing in overtime.

At least at this point, Alex Neal looks like the QB; he got significant playing time last year (but not many chances to throw, passing for just 40 yards and a score). Will Hiserote, Aiden Henry, and Connor Murphy are the leading returning rushers (87,62, and 43 yards respectively). Nobody on this year's squad caught more than 3 passes last year. On the defensive side, the Saints always rebuild into a rugged squad, plugging new guys into their system year after year. Aidan McDermott and Christian Stanek are the leading returning tacklers. Xavier will have to find a new kicker and punter as well. 

Let's look at the 2021 opponents team-by-team:

WESTERN DUBUQUE (at Xavier, August 27)

Last year's record: 5-4

Selected returning players: Spencer Zinn, 596 yards rushing, 5 TDs; Dakota Hoffman, 28 tackles, 2 sacks; Dominic Frost, 25.5 tackles

The Bobcats have always been a tough test for Xavier, right from 2014 when they defeated the Saints at Saints Field in their first year of 3A district play. After a hard-fought state championship win over Western Dubuque in 2018,Xavier dropped a tight contest in Epworth as the Bobcats made their way to the state title in 2019. Now Xavier and Western Dubuque face off in a season-opener at Saints Field, just like last season, when Xavier fell behind early but pulled away for a 38-21 win. The Bobcats lose a lot of key personnel from a 5-4 team, but head coach Justin Penner knows how to get his squad ready to compete and they always play hard against the Saints.

WEST DELAWARE (at Manchester, September 3)

Last year's record: 10-2

Selected returning players: Wyatt Voelker, 1294 yards rushing, 18 TDs, along with 91 tackles and 4 sacks; four other juniors combined for 1012 yards rushing and 20 TDs; Kyle Cole, 30 catches for 426 yards, 5 TDs; Jadyn Peyton, 52 tackles, 2 sacks; Connor Funk, 40.9 punting average, 57/65 on extra points

In my opinion the Hawks were one of the best teams in Class 3A throughout the course of the season. Outside of a loss to Decorah, West Delaware allowed just 32 points over 8 games, with 4 shutouts (they played a Week 0 game, so West Delaware was one of the few teams in Iowa to get 8 regular season games last year). After cruising through three playoff games, the Hawks dropped a 24-21 decision to eventual champion North Scott in the quarterfinals, a game where West Delaware was driving for a tying or winning score late before turning the ball over. For 2021/22, the Hawks remain in 3A (while most of their old competition is part of the new 4A) - but they return a powerful rushing attack and some dominant players on the defensive side of the ball. This game is going to be a true challenge for Xavier in Week 2.

DUBUQUE WAHLERT (at Loras College, Dubuque, September 10)

Last year's record: 6-3

Selected returning players: Bryce Rudiger, 435 passing yards and 6 TDs; Ryan Brosius, 386 yards rushing; Carson Cummer, 10 catches for 248 yards; Kaiden Knockel, 54 tackles

Head coach Jamie Marshall appears to be getting things turned around for the Golden Eagles. From a winless season the year before he arrived, to a 3-6 mark in 2019, to a winning 6-3 record last year, Wahlert is on the rise. While Xavier has seemed to have Wahlert's number (the Saints haven't lost to the Golden Eagles since 2002), their meeting in the playoffs last year turned out to be a struggle - Xavier needed a clutch 4th quarter drive and a field goal with under 3 minutes left to take a 17-14 victory. 

The classification restructuring for this cycle actually has Wahlert moving all the way to Class 2A, essentially a drop of two classes from last year (and remember, back in the MVC days prior to 2014, Wahlert played a 4A/biggest class schedule).

NORTH SCOTT (at Xavier, September 17)

Last year's record: 9-1, 3A state champions

Selected returning players: Grayson Juel, 279 yards passing, 4 TDs; Darnell Butler, 502 yards rushing, 4 TDs; Oliver Hughes, 37 catches for 393 yards, 4 TDs, 41.5 tackles, 4 interceptions - also 38.8 punting average, 7/9 on field goals; Jakob Nelson, 23 catches, 389 yards; Ryan Campbell, 42.5 tackles, 4 sacks; Connor Corson, 35.5 tackles

North Scott had an odd 2020, missing out on a key district game with Davenport Assumption due to COVID issues, then also getting a pass through the first round of the playoffs when Burlington had quarantine problems. The Lancers weren't exactly dominating on their road to the championship - they barely escaped a 5-4 Central DeWitt team during the course of the season, they slipped by Assumption 13-10 when they finally met in the playoffs, then knocked off West Delaware in the quarterfinals by taking advantage of a fumble when the Hawks were driving for a winning score. Their third straight heartstopping escape in the playoffs came with an overtime win over Xavier in the Dome ... yet when the dust settled, North Scott ended up as the state champions with only a loss to 4A Pleasant Valley marring their record.

The opposite of Wahlert, I guess, North Scott has been a thorn in Xavier's side recently, ending the Saints' season in both 2019 and 2020. The Lancers were originally on Xavier's non-district schedule for last season, too, until the COVID changes eliminated that game, but it's on for 2021, and it'll be yet another challenge. Oliver Hughes is a do-everything kind of talent for North Scott, and there's plenty of experience back on both sides of the ball.

CEDAR RAPIDS WASHINGTON (at Xavier, September 24)

Last year's record: 3-5

Selected returning players: Reid Ortiz, 146 yards passing; Michael Blank, 122 yards passing, 7 catches; Jabari Dobbs, 457 yards rushing, 5 TDs; Miles Thompson, 197 yards rushing; last year's top four tacklers (including Watts McBride, 70.5 tackles)

The Warriors are back on Xavier's schedule after a 7-year gap, following the Saints' move to Class 3A in 2014. Last year Washington opened the season 3-0, including a surprising win over Cedar Rapids Kennedy, but were not competitive in the following five losses (three by shutout). The big question, I suppose, is how a former 4A program will compare to the former 3A schools in the All-New-And-Improved Class 4A? Washington returns quite a few players, including their leading rusher and most of the defense - that experience should set them up for a chance at a good record in the district.

PELLA (at Pella, October 1)

Last year's record: 6-3

Selected returning players: Nolan Clayberg, 442 yards rushing, 5 TDs, 35 tackles; Aidan Pollock, 198 yards rushing; Reece Thoreson, 11 catches for 126 yards; Preston Rowe, 8 catches for 153 yards; 

Pella has been a consistent powerhouse in Class 3A for years, including consecutive state championships in 2014-16. The Dutch also have something of a rivalry built up with Xavier - after Pella easily defeated Xavier in the 2014 semifinals, the two had an epic rematch in the Dome in 2016, with Xavier losing on a last-play TD catch by the Dutch. Xavier has evened the overall record at 2-2 with a state championship victory in 2017 and yet another tense nailbiter of a playoff game in 2018. Pella uncharacteristically started slow last season, dropping their first two games, but bounced back to win their district, putting together six wins in a row before dropping a 6-0 playoff decision to Grinnell. The Dutch look to have a bit of rebuilding to do; outside of the team's leading rusher and two good receivers, there's not a lot of experience.

CLEAR CREEK-AMANA (at Xavier, October 8)

Last year's record: 4-4

Selected returning players: Ben Swails, 169 yards passing, 3 TDs, 42.5 punting average; Gage Freeman, 253 yards rushing, 8 catches, 37.5 tackles; Harrison Rosenberg, 19 catches for 337 yards, 4 TDs

The Clippers were expecting big things in 2020, with Division I prospect TJ Bollers, but they couldn't really find their footing. After starting 1-2, Clear Creek-Amana did put together three wins in a row, but were upset by Marion in the first round of the playoffs. Ben Swails and Gage Freeman, not the first-team QB and RB, actually picked up a lot of experience in their game against Xavier last September, so the Saints won't be surprising to them. CCA has a new coach this season as well (Matt Haddy, former basketball coach at Mount Vernon), so maybe the Clippers will be revamping things for 2021.

NEWTON (at Newton, October 15)

Last year's record: 0-8

Selected returning players: Zayvier Arguello, 518 yards passing, 526 yards rushing, 5 TDs; Nathan Maki, 349 yards rushing, 3 TDs, 8 catches; Keith Moko, 16 catches for 208 yards, 3 TDs; Reese Hammons, 57.5 tackles; Braydon Chance, 31 tackles, 1.5 sacks

But for a 2-point loss at Oskaloosa, the Cardinals were outmatched in all of their games last season in Andy Swedenhjelm's first season as coach. On the positive side, Newton was a very young team in 2020, and all those players got a year of experience under their belts. The Cardinals actually took the early lead on Xavier with a long TD run by Zayvier Arguello, so they weren't afraid to go after the Saints. Arguello, last year's leading passer and rusher, looks to be back on the starting unit, and Newton returns their top three receivers and top three tacklers as well.

OSKALOOSA (at Oskaloosa, October 22)

Last year's record: 2-6

Selected returning players: Keaton Flaherty, 591 yards passing, 3 TDs; Daryl Fane, 94 yards rushing; William Schultz, 17 catches for 336 yards, 4 TDs, 35.3 punting average; Colin Snitker, 31 tackles; Blake Westercamp, 22.5 tackles

The Indians struggled last year, with only a 2-point win over winless Newton and a one-score win over winless Ottumwa on the positive side of their record. Keaton Flaherty and William Schultz had some good times on offense for Oskaloosa last year, and should expand on that in 2021 after that year of experience. It was a lot of seniors that teamed up for that 2-6 record, though - but that might be a positive for this year if the new starters can flush that season and restart this fall fresh.

Another Look At This Year's Districts

My previous post (showing the new districts for Iowa high school football for 2021-22) was thrown together in a big hurry. I just whipped together my colored spiderweb district maps, leaving it to the reader to look up the actual members of each district and all.

Given a bit more time - and also taking the opportunity to play around with the paint.net program (which is the real reason I spent the time to do all these) - I wasn't satisfied with those thrown-together maps. So, here you will find maps that include the school names, as well as a general idea of district boundaries. You can use them in conjunction with the spider-web maps I made earlier to get a complete idea of how the districts will shake out for 2021-22.

The big change for 2021-22 is the creation of a new Class 5A, breaking out the 36 largest schools into the top class; by keeping 4A and 3A at 36 members as well, the breakpoints between classes are considerably different than they have been in recent years. This also creates two additional semifinal playoff games in a weekend that really doesn't have room for more games (the previous six-class schedule had 8-Player and 3A semifinals on Thursday, A and 4A semifinals on Friday, and 2A and 3A semifinals on Saturday). Where will two more semifinal games go? Speculation is that the 8-Player semis could be moved to Wednesday (with the 8-Player third round games the previous week adjusted to Thursday night, to allow enough recovery time between games), but that's all guesswork at the moment.

CLASS 5A

Again, these aren't "districts." The Iowa High School Athletic Association is trying something different for 5A, the 36 largest football schools in the state. They are put together in six "groups," with each group being tiered by some kind of formula (mostly past win-loss and playoff success): each group has one team in Tier 1, one in Tier 2, one in Tier 3, and so on. The groups do not necessarily play a full round-robin - the games scheduled by the state include four of their group opponents, not five, with Tier 1 and Tier 6 not playing each other. In addition, the state has scheduled a fifth game for each team against a team from the same tier in a different group. Schools can complete their schedule with four other games against any other opponent they can schedule.

Sixteen teams in 5A will make the playoffs, with all sixteen determined purely by RPI. 

CLASS 4A

From here on we do have traditional districts. There are 36 total teams in Class 4A, with six districts of six. All district members will play each other for five games of their schedule, with the other four coming through mutual wish-lists. Sixteen teams will make the 4A playoffs: the top two finishers in each district, along with four other teams with the highest RPI.

These districts are fairly well put together, I think - Districts 1 and 2 are pretty far-flung in northwest and northeast Iowa, but you can't do much about that. District 4 could be intriguing, with traditional powers Xavier and Pella together in the same district (they've met in the playoffs four times since 2014, with an epic 34-30 last-play victory by Pella in the 2016 semifinals, a win by Xavier in the 2017 3A championship, and a thrilling 14-6 slugfest win by Xavier in the 2018 second round). That district also sees Cedar Rapids Washington, for the first time dropping out of the state's largest football class, as a new metro district opponent for Xavier. 

There was always going to be a question of who got included in the district with Mount Pleasant, Burlington, and Fort Madison - those three southeastern teams just didn't fit in very well with anybody else. The state chose to put them in District 3 with Iowa City Liberty, North Scott, and Clinton. Enrollment changes and the new breakpoints between classes added Council Bluffs Thomas Jefferson to District 6, giving Lewis Central and Glenwood a new neighbor and making that district a half west/half central sort of arrangement.

CLASS 3A

The plan for 3A is exactly the same as 4A. Thirty-six total members, six districts of six, nine regular-season games (five district, four non-district), and sixteen playoff qualifiers (top two in each district and four more by RPI).

There are some definite outliers here: Carroll in District 1, Grinnell in District 5 and Knoxville in District 6 will have some long bus rides involved. District 2 is pretty stretched out from Algona and Humboldt to North Polk and Ballard; I imagine Humboldt is excited about some new district opponents that aren't from the northwest part of the state. South Tama also seems a bit out of place in District 3, but who would you trade them for?

CLASS 2A

For Class 2A the numbers grow to 48, so there are eight districts of six. There are also just eight regular season games, instead of nine - the classes from here on down will have 32 playoff qualifiers instead of 16, so their playoffs will start in what would be Week 9 of the regular season (teams that do not qualify for the playoffs have the option to schedule a ninth game with another non-playoff team, if they desire). The top four teams in each district will make the playoffs, so no RPI is necessary.

A couple of nicely put together districts (District 1, District 3, District 5) and a few far-flung ones (District 7, from Iowa Falls to Chariton/Albia, is quite a north-south stretch; it's a long way from Centerville to Williamsburg in District 6; and District 8 covers a lot of ground).

CLASS 1A

Just as Class 3A is exactly the same as 4A, Class 1A copies 2A - 48 total teams, six districts of eight, eight regular season games, 32 playoff qualifiers with the top four from each district.

This may be the most elegant grouping of districts I've ever seen. They're all fairly compact and make sense, mostly. I say the IHSAA did a great job with the 1A districts.

CLASS A

Class A is all the 11-player teams left after the 204 sorted into 5A through 1A. It happens to be a happy coincidence that that leaves 56 teams - not only a round number, but one that's easily sorted into eight districts of seven teams each. There will be a couple of oddities from that: each team has six district games and two non-district, but the non-district games will be distributed over the course of the eight-week season (each week one team per district will have to have a non-district game, since there's an odd number of teams in each district).

Again, 32 playoff qualifiers, with the top four in each district advancing. The 24 teams that do not reach the playoffs are allowed to schedule a ninth game with another non-qualifying team, if they want.

These districts, much like 1A, are pretty well distributed, with one exception - Wayne, Corydon is awfully lonely down there in the south of District 6, a long way from Belle Plaine, Madrid, and Ogden. But the fact is, Wayne is a long way from everybody except Mount Ayr, so whatever district they got placed in would be a stretch.

CLASS 8-PLAYER

This class continues to grow, and continues to be the largest single class in Iowa high school football. There were rumors of the IHSAA perhaps splitting 8-Player into two classes as part of the reorganizing that created Class 5A for 2021, but that didn't happen. For the current cycle, there will be 72 schools participating in the 8-Player game. The state set up 10 districts, eight of them with seven members and two of them with eight. There will be 32 playoff qualifiers after an eight-game regular season - the top two teams in each district are in, then the final two playoff teams will be selected using their point differential in district games (limited to 17 points maximum). So it's a little weird in that 56 teams will have six district games/two non-district while 16 others will have seven district games/one non-district.

Some other things to note:

• In District 1, Siouxland Christian had previously paired with Whiting, with games played at Whiting High School. While I haven't seen anything definitive, there was some evidence on the IHSAA website earlier showing Whiting choosing to pair up with West Harrison instead. If that is indeed the case, I'm not sure where Siouxland Christian would play their games (they do not have a field of their own). Siouxland Christian actually ended up forfeiting their final two games in 2019 and didn't play at all last fall, which may be a factor if Whiting decided to have their football players team up with a program more likely to actually play out the season.
• In District 5, Calamus-Wheatland is starting up an 8-Player program this season (they had previously paired with Central DeWitt's 11-player team). All their games this season will be road games, as they do not have a field of their own.
• In District 7, I'm not sure where Woodward Academy is going to play, either. They've previously played 11-player football, I think sharing Woodward-Granger's field - but since the 8-Player field has different dimensions from the 11-player game, they can't share the playing surface any more.

It's possible all three of those teams - Siouxland Christian, Calamus-Wheatland, and Woodward Academy - will play all of their games on the road, but I just don't know.

Okay, with 72 teams you'd think you could get some compact districts put together, but ... District 2 covers an awful lot of ground, and District 4 is a stretch from Lansing to Calamus. The others aren't too bad, though.

And there you have it, maps with district boundaries and school names and all. It was good practice with paint.net, and maybe the visualizations will be helpful for you, too.

The Districts For 2021-22

 Here we go! The districts have been announced, the playoff qualification system is made, and now the scramble begins for schools finding non-district opponents. With any luck, we should have the schedules out by mid-April ... but until then, enjoy how the districts shook out and check out the travel situation for your favorite team!

While last year's district/classification system was a one-year thing, designed to give the state time to work out a fully revised system for more competitive balance (which didn't really happen, by the way), now we return to the two-year rotation. So these classes and districts will apply to both the 2021 and 2022 football seasons.

CLASS 5A

The IHSAA says they're going back to the plan they had last winter, before the COVID pandemic threw a wrench into everything and sent them back to a less complicated scheduling plan. Here's the deal:

* Class 5A is not broken out into districts; instead, there are six "groups" of six teams each. Each group holds one team from six tiers, which the state basically sorted out from what they're calling a "success module." Now, not every team in a group will necessarily play every other team - the state has assigned four group opponents for each team, and the Tier 1 team is not scheduled to play the Tier 6 team. In addition, there's one more out-of-group game scheduled for each team, this one against a team from the same tier in a different group (the Tier 1 team from Group 1 plays the Tier 1 team from Group 2, for example, while the Tier 6 team from Group 1 plays the Tier 6 team from Group 5). The groupings and the assigned games can be found here.

* In addition to the five games already set by the IHSAA, each Class 5A team will schedule 4 other games. I don't believe there's any tier restrictions as far as that goes (so that Tier 6 team in a group could play the Tier 1 team, if both were willing ... it's just not part of the "success model" scheduling that the state put together).

* Your record within your group means nothing as far as playoff qualifying goes; in other words, being champion of your "group" doesn't get you an automatic playoff spot. All 16 playoff teams in Class 5A will be determined by RPI.

Since there aren't really "districts" it's difficult to have a map mean much of anything, but what I've done here is illustrated the pre-scheduled games put together by the IHSAA. The colors go with the group assignments, with the non-group tier matchups shown in purple.

Yeah, it's not great, but what are you gonna do?

CLASS 4A

Now we get to districts like we're used to. We've got six districts of six here. The top two district finishers automatically make the playoffs, then there will be four additional playoff qualifiers determined by RPI to make the total of 16.

District assignments can be seen here. My map shows the extent of travel for each district member.

CLASS 3A

Same as 4A - six districts of six, top two in each district make the playoffs, four at-larges using RPI. The district assignments are here.

CLASS 2A

The next two classes have 48 members instead of 36. This works out to eight districts of six. There are 32 playoff teams here, which means the top four in each district make it in - no RPI involved. They also only play an 8-game regular season, instead of 9 (to allow for an extra week of playoffs) - teams that do not qualify for the playoffs can match up for a 9th game if they want to.

Class 2A district assignments are here.

CLASS 1A

Things are set up here exactly the same as in 2A. You can find assignments here.

CLASS A 

This class has the remainder of the 11-player teams left after the other classes are determined (36 in 5A, 4A, and 3A; 48 in 2A and 1A). This year that worked out to 56 teams total, which the state sorted into eight districts of seven. Having 8 districts makes it easy for the state, since they'll just send the top four finishers into the playoffs. That also  means there will be a non-district game for at least one member of each district every week of the season, since there's an odd number of district teams. Again, 8 regular season games, to allow for 32 playoff teams, with a 9th game allowed for non-playoff teams if they want to match up.

Class A assignments are here.

EIGHT-PLAYER

Ah, eight-player ... when the IHSAA originally released the classifications, they had just 71 teams in this class. That's not a big problem, but it would mean (since it's an odd number) that somebody in the state would have an off-week every Friday of the season. Now that the districts are out, though, Woodward Academy has appeared as a 72nd 8-player team. So now things are even again!

There are 10 districts here, eight districts with seven members and two with eight. The top three finishers in each district are automatic qualifiers ... then for the two remaining at-larges, the state is going to go with the best point differential in your district games (capped at a 17-point spread, to eliminate the incentive to run up the score). Eight games, 32 playoff teams, a ninth game would be allowed.

Here's the 8-player district list. And here's your map.

Iowa Football Classifications for 2021

Well, it took until March 5, but finally it's happened - the Iowa High School Athletic Association has released the seven classes for the 2021 high school football season (and, I'm assuming with a return to the two-year cycle, 2022 as well ... but there still might be questions about that).

In January the IHSAA announced the addition of a Class 5A, splitting the 36 largest schools off into their own new class; then 4A (previously the largest designation) would contain the next 36, followed by another 36 schools in 3A. Classes 2A and 1A would consist of 48 teams each, with the remaining 11-player teams in Class A. Eight-player remains its own class.

Now, here's some complicating background. In early 2020 the IHSAA said that football season would be a one-year outlier, rather than the two-year cycle they'd used since, well, forever. The idea was that an IHSAA study group would examine ways to improve competitive balance, perhaps by using socioeconomic factors (such as free and reduced lunch percentages) or previous success in football, to create a more balanced assortment of schools in the largest classes, at least. While that work was going on, 2020 was to see a different approach in 4A, the largest class: Instead of assigning districts, teams would be put into tiers (based on prior won-loss records), and there would be some limits on how many tiers up or down a team could choose their opponents from. It was explained as a temporary experiment, with a more permanent change coming for 2021 and beyond.

Then came the COVID-19 pandemic, which threw everything upside down. Schedules were rearranged, the first couple of weeks of the fall season were made optional, and the Class 4A experiment was put on the shelf. Yet, still, there didn't seem to be anything preventing the IHSAA from going forward with their study groups to put together a more comprehensive competitive balance proposal out for this year.

Except ...

They didn't. Or, at least, they haven't yet. The addition of the new 5A simply splits the largest 36 schools into their own class, using the same enrollment numbers they've always used to determine classes; there's no adjustment for socioeconomic factors, no arrangement for past success or struggle, nothing different than what's been done for the past several decades. Now, might some of these things be addressed when districts are released in a week or so? Perhaps ... maybe the state will bring up another system similar to last year's shelved "tier" plan for 5A. We'll have to see.

In any event, here we are. A couple of surprises arise here, I suppose: Cedar Rapids Washington drops out of the largest class into 4A, joining metro mates Xavier and Marion (although I'm not convinced all three will be in the same district); Council Bluffs Thomas Jefferson will also be 4A, no doubt joining Lewis Central and Glenwood in a district; previous big-class schools Fort Dodge and Indianola will also be in 4A this fall. Meanwhile, Solon, a perennial power in the second-largest class, now falls into the number-three class (3A), while Harlan, last year's runner-up in what was the second-largest class, also moves into the third-largest class (it's still 3A, but today's 3A is last year's 2A, so ...).

Let's go to the maps. Districts aren't out yet, but you can make your own!

CLASS 5A

Here's the 36 5A schools. I'm assuming there'll be six groupings of six teams each, although it may not be "districts" as we've been used to; perhaps the IHSAA will go to some kind of grouping with "tiers" as they planned to do last season. Teams will play 9 regular-season games, with 16 playoff qualifiers.

CLASS 4A

The next 36 schools by size are in 4A. Again, I'm guessing six districts of six teams, with 9 regular season games and 16 playoff qualifiers. The districts could be a bit tricky; while it's a cinch to make nice, tidy groups of five, adding that sixth one causes all kinds of domino effects around different regions, so I don't know what's actually going to happen there. You also have to find three teams to join Mount Pleasant, Burlington, and Fort Madison in a district, which is going to be lots of travel fun. Decorah's location makes it hard to find five other schools within a reasonable distance, too - is it Webster City or one of the Cedar Rapids/Marion schools that ends up thrown into that northeastern district?

CLASS 3A

Same story again, 36 teams, probably six districts of six, 9 games, 16 playoff qualifiers. A couple of teams are going to have long drives for district games in Keokuk ... (there's four obvious district mates down there, but what two do you add? Assumption? Solon? Knoxville?)

CLASS 2A

Now things change up a bit. There's 48 teams in this class; six districts of eight, or eight districts of six. Only 8 regular-season games, with 32 playoff qualifiers (so if you had eight districts, you could just take the top four finishers in each district and Bob's your uncle, no RPI required). With that extra week of playoffs, non-playoff qualifiers would be permitted to add a ninth regular-season game with another non-qualifier, should they choose.

CLASS 1A

The same setup as Class 2A, 48 teams, 32 qualifiers, 8 regular-season games, yadda yadda.

CLASS A

Class A has the remainder of the 11-player football schools, which (just coincidentally) happens to be a nice even 56 for 2021. So you're looking at seven districts of eight, most likely. Once again, 32 playoff qualifiers and 8 regular-season games, with that optional ninth game for non-qualifiers. You're going to have some at-large qualifiers here (with the top four from seven districts you have 28, leaving you four remaining playoff spots), so I guess RPI will need to be a thing.

Wayne, Corydon continues to be basically all alone there in southern Iowa, so whatever district gets them will see some long road trips.

EIGHT PLAYER

Ah, yes, the eight-player schools. This group continues to grow; while the IHSAA does have an enrollment limit for this class, it continues to be more of a guideline than an actual rule. There was talk prior to January that the state might actually split 8-player into two classes, but that's not happening.

In any event, there are 71 schools planning to play 8-player football in 2021. This is somewhat problematic, because an odd number means each week one of those teams won't have an opponent. I'm not going to try to work out all the math here for non-district games, but eight 8-team districts and one 7-team district might work (it might not, too, considering each team in the 8-team districts only has one non-district available and the seven teams in the small district would need two apiece). It might take creative math, but I'm sure somebody can figure it out.

So this is what we know as of today, March 5. We expect to have districts made available in about a week; hopefully in the same timeframe we might have information on how playoff qualifiers are determined, which would then lead to schools making their wish-lists for non-district games and then actual schedules ... sometime ... maybe ... before summer.

Possible 4A Teams For 2021

 Here's a map showing the schools possibly making the cut for the new Class 4A in Iowa high school football for 2021. This list is based on a Cedar Rapids Gazette story, with the classifications based on unofficial BEDS numbers spotted by a coach on the IHSAA website.