Wrapping Up The Year

The last three games of Xavier's regular season feature a recent 4A playoff team (which is also the only 3A team that's ever handed Xavier a regular season defeat), a team that just moved up to 3A two years ago that has never faced Xavier, and a rising metro squad that's just missed the playoffs the last two years.

WESTERN DUBUQUE BOBCATS

Friday, October 5

at Saints Field, Xavier High School, Cedar Rapids

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (LIVE)

Western Dubuque returns to 3A after two seasons as a 4A school; in fact, if the state had left 4A with 48 members instead of cutting that class to 42, they'd probably still be there. It's not like they struggled with the big schools, with winning records both seasons and even a district title and playoff berth in 2016. But Xavier fans probably still associate the Bobcats with one specific game, the 2014 homecoming contest at Saints Field, Xavier's first year in 3A - the weird, rainy game where Bryce Schulte didn't complete a single pass and somehow Western Dubuque came away with a 7-6 win. To this day that remains the only regular season defeat by a 3A school that Xavier has ever suffered (they also have losses to 1A Regina and playoff losses to Pella and Decorah, but still ...).

Now Western Dubuque moves back to 3A and back into Xavier's district. The Bobcats have a solid 21-15 regular season mark over the past four years (.583) with playoff appearances in 2014 and 2016. Coach Justin Penner took over as head coach in 2014 after five years at Carroll Kuemper and four seasons at Mason City - and he'll have a bit of a rebuilding job on offense this year.

Drake George will be back as the team's leading receiver (57 catches and 12 TDs last year), but there's not a lot of other statistical returnees. Sam Goodman was 3 for 9 passing; Ben DeSollar ran for 152 yards and Ben Bryant added 89 more; other returning players caught only three more passes.

On defense things look more experienced. Three of the top four tacklers are back, led by Jason Simon-Rassler (59.5 tackles, 3 sacks), DeSollar and Zack Butcher. Butcher also led the team with three interceptions and was the punter last year, averaging over 31 yards a kick.

Xavier is 1-1 against the Bobcats, with a 35-12 win in Epworth in 2015 evening the mark after that one-point loss the year before.

CENTER POINT-URBANA STORMIN' POINTERS

Friday, October 12

at Center Point

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (LIVE)

A new opponent for the Saints, Center Point-Urbana is a longtime 2A program that got moved up to 3A in 2016 - but even though they're just a few minutes apart on I-380, the two schools were put in different districts (don't get me started on how the IHSAA draws their district lines). CPU has been, well, let's say mediocre in recent seasons: after a 6-3 record and a playoff game in 2014, they haven't won more than 4 games in a season since, going 16-20 over the past four years (.444).

The Stormin' Pointers do bring back some experience from last year's 4-5 squad, led by quarterback Caleb Andrews, who passed for 999 yards and ran for 85 more. Alex Wade led the team in rushing as a sophomore, with 506 yards, and Devin Smith ran for 122. Maverick Gatrost (there's a guy for the All-Name team) was the top receiver with 22 catches, while Wade had 17.

Three of last year's top six tacklers return, with Brandon Moore, Max Chesmore, and Gatrost combining for 133 tackles (Gatrost had four sacks). Two of last year's juniors have kicking experience - Logan Peterson was 10 for 13 on extra points, while Tristan Miller was 4 out of 5. Gatrost was last year's punter, averaging nearly 34 yards per kick.

Xavier has never faced CPU on the football field, and while it will be a short trip up the interstate in mid-October, it will be a fresh experience all around.

MARION INDIANS

Friday, October 19

at Thomas Park, Marion

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (LIVE)

Marion is a team on the move, and the move is up. The Indians went 1-17 in 2014-15, leaving longtime coach Tony Perkins (at 104-59) one game short of the school coaching record held by Les Hipple. Perkins retired after 2015, with Tim Lovell taking over. Lovell led the team to a 5-4 record in 2016 and then just missed the playoffs with a 6-3 mark last year (making Marion 12-24 over the past four seasons, or .333).

Marion has a real star coming back this year in Trevor Paulsen. Paulsen threw for 1448 yards and 19 TDs last year. He also rushed for 322 yards and 6 more scores, and was the team's punter. While leading rusher Chris Mohwinkle has graduated, JuCorey Higgins and Patrick Bleadorn return with their combined 573 yards rushing (along with Paulsen) providing some oomph in the ground game. The Indians do lose 82 receptions to graduation, with four returning players having a total of 18 catches between them.

Some solid players are back on the defensive side, including Nicholas Cole and Nate Miller (who had four sacks each) along with Dalton Cannon, Connor Whalen, and Higgins. Carson Gorton got a bit of time kicking extra points as a sophomore last season, making 9 of 13.

Xavier easily handled Marion in 2014-15, with wins of 37-6 and 55-0, but those were very different Marion football teams than what we've seen the past two years. I expect Coach Lovell will have his team ready to fight on their home field to close out the season, and it's quite possible that there might be a playoff spot on the line for the Indians as well.

The Heart Of The Season

And now we move into the middle of the season and the start of district play. First, though, yet another perennial power in Class 3A:

WEST DELAWARE HAWKS

Friday, September 14

at West Delaware, Manchester

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (LIVE)

You should mark your calendars for this one, folks. Xavier's last non-district game of the season means a trip to Manchester to meet the Hawks of West Delaware, one of the most consistent 3A programs you'll find. The Hawks have a 10-year playoff streak going, winning 13 playoff games in that span. After going 6-3 in 2008, West Delaware hasn't had a year with more than 2 regular season losses since - that's a record of 75-15 (.833) over that period.

Doug Winkowitsch has been head coach for the Hawks since 2003, with a career record of 124-39 at West Delaware. And for this season, Winkowitsch gets a truckload of returning experience from last year's 7-2 squad. Nick Casey returns at quarterback, throwing for 1914 yards and 15 TDs last year. Caleb Kehrli was a monster at running back, with 1209 yards rushing and 18 TDs; Jordan Bries added 686 yards, and Mitch Mangold and Kale Rempe teamed for 163 more. They're all back this season. Mangold also caught 43 passes, along with 10 receptions from Logan Winn.

On the defensive side, Bries led the team in tackles last year along with 8 sacks; Winn and Ben Ridenour had 76 more tackles between them. Winn had 5 interceptions and Mangold 4. Casey is also the returning punter for the Hawks.

On paper, this looks like it could be the season's strongest challenge for Xavier; on the road, against a quality opponent, with a ton of returning talent. It's almost weird that these top 3A programs in the same general area of the state haven't met more than once before (a 27-17 Xavier victory in the first round of the 2016 playoffs); while there were several situations in the playoffs since 2014 when it looked like the Saints and the Hawks might get paired up, it ended up only happening once. Anyway, you should tune in on September 14 - I fully expect this to be a battle of 3-0 teams for the last week of non-district play.

MAQUOKETA CARDINALS

Friday, September 21

at Goodenow Field, Maquoketa

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (LIVE)

District play finally gets started with a trip through Grant Wood country to one of the most picturesque small-town football stadiums you'll ever see. The Cardinals have suffered some indignities in recent years. In 2015, Maquoketa went 6-3, taking second place behind Xavier in their district, and then won their first-round playoff game. That was pretty much the highlight of the recent past, as Maquoketa won just two other games since 2014 for a mark of 8-28 (.222) over those four years.

One thing the Cardinals do have going for them is a lot of returning experience, including quite a few juniors who got playing time as sophomores last year. Nicholas Ehrlinger threw for 619 yards to lead the team last season, rushing for another 120. Ryne Gruenwald was everywhere as a sophomore: he passed for 69 yards, led the team with 259 yards rushing, was the third-leading receiver with 6 catches, and had 2 interceptions. Another sophomore, Isaac Crist, ran for 159 yards, caught 5 passes, and was the third-leading tackler, with 27.5 tackles and two sacks. Liam Aunan and Aaron Bramer had 11 more pass receptions.

On defense, the top eleven tacklers from last year are all back, led by Abe Michael's 52.5 tackles. Zac Gavin and Taven Rich are also among the top four (with Crist).

Xavier has only played Maquoketa twice, as district foes in 2014-15, scoring over 40 points in both games to win them easily.

WAHLERT, DUBUQUE GOLDEN EAGLES

Friday, September 28

at Saints Field, Xavier High School, Cedar Rapids

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (LIVE)

Here's a familiar opponent for the Saints, a former MVC foe that dropped down to 3A in 2014 as well. Although Xavier didn't play Wahlert the past two seasons, they shared a district in 2014-15 in addition to their long association in the MVC. Xavier has an overall record of 9-3 against the Golden Eagles, and they've gone 6-0 since 2006. The Saints have outscored Wahlert 204-32 in their last five contests.

While Wahlert started seeing some real difficulties competing as a small parochial school in 4A prior to 2014, the move to 3A didn't change things much, with consecutive 3-6 seasons those first two years (although they did reach the playoffs both seasons, with quick first-round exits). In 2016-17, though, the Golden Eagles seem to have gotten their feet under them with back-to-back 5-4 seasons, making their regular-season mark 16-20 (.444) over the past four years.

Wahlert will be challenged a bit this year coming up with replacements for graduates, however. There are hardly any returning defenders coming back - last year's juniors had a grand total of 48 tackles last season. They'll also be missing over 1800 yards rushing, with Isaac Ripley the top returnee in the backfield with 118 yards (Isaac Walsh and Coby Adams had another 150 yards between them).

Their quarterback is returning, however, with Bryce Osterburger's 885 yards passing and 7 TDs bringing some experience. Danny McDermott was last year's leading receiver with 27 catches, but basically every other pass receiver from last season has moved on. Cameron Haugen shared kicking duties last year, but was 15 for 15 on extra point tries and made his only field goal attempt, a 31-yarder.

The Rest of the First Third

Continuing my look at Xavier's upcoming season opponents, with a bit of a nod towards how these opponents could help with RPI and playoff qualifying:

DECORAH VIKINGS

Friday, August 31

at Saints Field, Cedar Rapids Xavier High School

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (delayed after Kernels baseball)

There's a big change in the program at Decorah this year, and that's the fact that the Vikings have their first head coaching change in 25 years. Bill Post, an IHSAA Hall of Fame coach, has stepped away after recording a 188-71 (.726) head coaching record in 24 years at Decorah. When you add in assistant coaching time, Post had something over 40 years of experience - that's a lot of knowledge and leadership for a program that's been one of the most consistently solid in Class 3A.

New coach Pat Trewin isn't exactly new - he's been an assistant under Post for the past 22 years, so don't expect radical changes in philosophy or style. Of course, there's really no need for such changes when you consider Decorah's record. The Vikings won the state 3A title in 2012 with a perfect 14-0 mark. In the six years since kicking off that championship season, Decorah has a regular season mark of 39-15, with four playoff appearances. Saints fans no doubt remember the Vikings' playoff run in 2015; after finishing fourth in their district with a 4-5 mark, they then won two playoff games (including an upset of then-undefeated Xavier at Saints Field) and reached the quarterfinal round. Decorah also represented for Xavier's tough District 3 last year, reaching the playoffs as one of the state's two wild cards in 3A last year after a 7-2 regular season mark.

Trewin faces something of a rebuilding challenge this year, similar to what we saw in my last post with Iowa City Regina. Last year's starting quarterback Brannan Hogan has graduated, leaving Jace Johnson as the only player with any varsity passing attempts (2, although he did complete both). Top rusher Jake Muhlbauer is also gone, along with Dawson Holkesvik and pretty much every other Viking with a varsity pass reception.

Decorah does return some talent in the offensive backfield, with Kailer McCabe (445 yards, 5 TDs), Drake Shelton (227 yards, 2 TDs) and Clay Johansen (165 yards, 4 TDs) back for their senior seasons. Shelton and McCabe were also solid defensive contributors in 2017. On special teams, Cameron DeLong was 7 for 7 on extra point kicks and hit two field goals last season, including a 38-yarder.

The Vikings are always tough, well-coached, and play Xavier hard, and I don't expect anything different even after the retirement of Bill Post.

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION KNIGHTS

Friday, September 7

at Saints Field, Cedar Rapids Xavier High School

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (LIVE unless the Kernels are in a playoff game that night)

Assumption is yet another program that is consistently good; much like Xavier, they were a smaller school contender in a 4A conference prior to 2014, and have continued with good success in 3A. The Knights have a playoff streak going back at least to 2007 (the IHSAA's website archives fall apart prior to that), although in those 11 playoff appearances they've only won five games, and 2015 was the only year they advanced past the first round.

Xavier and Assumption are familiar with each other - they've played the last four years (two years as non-district foes, then Xavier ended the Knights' season in the playoffs the last two seasons). Coach Wade King has been head coach since 2002, with a record of 119-49 (.708). Since 2012, Assumption has a regular season mark of 41-13, which is even two games better than Decorah in the same time span.

Again, graduation has hit the Knights pretty hard, with Brandon Schlichting's 158 yards passing leading the way for returning quarterbacks. Johnny Hua returns for his senior season after rushing for 339 yards last year, while three juniors combined for 98 yards rushing as sophomores. Nick Gotilla is the leading returning receiver, as he caught 13 passes last season.

Assumption should be frightfully sturdy on defense, though. Returning players accounted for 182 tackles last year, ranking from 3rd to 6th on the team tackle list. Anthony Valanis led the Knights with five sacks, while Seth Adrian, Adam Metivier, and Nathan Schlichting were also adding up defensive stats (Metivier had three interceptions, while Brandon Schlichting led the team with four).

So the first third of the season - Regina, Decorah, Assumption - features three quality, traditionally strong opponents who should provide a tough challenge to the Saints, while also likely rolling up good overall season records that will help that RPI. Next time we'll finish up the non-district schedule and get started on Xavier's drive for a fifth consecutive district title.

The Season Approaches ...

Once the calendar page turns to July, football fans' attention starts to turn toward ... well, football. NFL training camps aren't far away, college football teams will start their preseason workouts in a few weeks, and high school practices get going in less than a month. So, with the Xavier Saints getting ready to defend their Class 3A state title this fall, let's get noodling about the upcoming season.

I'll be taking a little look at each of Xavier's opponents this fall, with this post focusing on the Saints' first foe, the Iowa City Regina Regals. Remember, with the changes to playoff qualifying that were made by the state, there's a lot of importance placed on how well your opponents do with the rest of their schedules - the better record your opponents have, the better your RPI will look, and if you don't nab an automatic playoff spot by winning your district, RPI is very important. Xavier has done pretty well with scheduling their non-district games, with four programs that have very solid histories in the area of winning percentage (Regina, Decorah, Davenport Assumption, and West Delaware).

IOWA CITY REGINA REGALS

Friday, August 24

at Regina High School, Iowa City

Broadcast on KMRY AM/FM (delayed after Kernels baseball)

Regina has one of the outstanding high school football programs in all of Iowa. They've made it to eight consecutive state championship games - eight! They won the first six (two in 2A, four in 1A) before losing the title game the past two years. In the past ten seasons, going back to 2008, the Regals have lost as many as two regular season games exactly once. That happened last year, when Regina lost both non-district games (to 3A Xavier and to 2A Mount Vernon) before winning 10 straight games in Class 1A leading up to the state championship.

Coach Marv Cook took over the program in 2007, and since then he's put up a record of 134-12. That's basically a 12-1 record every year for 11 years, which is insane. Obviously, for Xavier's RPI concerns, Regina will be a big plus, regardless of the outcome of the game on August 24.

Xavier is 3-1 all time against the Regals. Drew Cook took over the game at Saints Field back in 2014 to lead Regina to an exciting 21-7 win, a game that was tied 7-all with less than 10 minutes to play; the Saints responded in 2015 with probably the most thrilling comeback ever in Xavier history. An interception in the end zone with about a minute left in a tie game led to a quick drive downfield, then a 35-yard field goal from Dallas Klein as time expired for the 38-35 victory. The Saints then won 35-26 in 2016 and 23-6 last season, never trailing in either game.

For 2018, Coach Cook faces quite a challenge after graduation sapped the squad of 2,008 yards rushing and 1,884 yards passing, as well as 7 of the team's top 8 tacklers. Ashton Cook looks like the frontrunner for quarterback after throwing for 640 yards as a freshman last year. Nick Milder and Kieler Brown combined for 282 yards rushing, while Alec Wick and Patrick Clark caught 56 passes between them. We've seen Regina reload again and again over the years, and I wouldn't expect any less from Coach Cook and his team this year - but there's also no doubt that numbers continue to shrink (not only for Regina, but for football teams across the state), and maintaining the standard of excellence we've seen for the past 11 years is going to truly be a challenge this season.

A Look At The 2018 Schedule

The high school football schedules for the next two years have been released by the Iowa High School Athletic Association, and there's really no big surprises. We had already known the makeup of the districts for the next two years, which made up five of the nine opponents - the schedule announcement confirmed the four non-district games as well as the home-and-away sites for 2018 and 2019.

Here's the schedule for Cedar Rapids Xavier for this fall (non-district games in blue):

• Friday, August 24:   Regina, Iowa City (at Iowa City)
• Friday, August 31:   Decorah (at Xavier)
• Friday, Sept. 7:   Assumption, Davenport (at Xavier)
• Friday, Sept. 14:   West Delaware (at Manchester)
• Friday, Sept. 21:   Maquoketa (at Maquoketa)
• Friday, Sept. 28:   Wahlert, Dubuque (at Xavier)
• Friday, Oct. 5:   Western Dubuque (at Xavier)
• Friday, Oct. 12:   Center Point-Urbana (at Center Point)
• Friday, Oct. 19:   Marion (at Marion)

• Friday, Oct. 26:   First-round playoff
• Friday, Nov. 2:   Second-round playoff
• Thursday, Nov. 9:   3A Semifinal (at Cedar Falls)
• Thursday, Nov. 16:   3A Championship (at Cedar Falls)

Interestingly enough, even with the district changes and adjustments to schedules that the state made for this two-year cycle, there's only one team on the schedule that Xavier has never played (Center Point-Urbana). The Saints have played Regina every season since moving to Class 3A in 2014, while Maquoketa, Marion, Western Dubuque, Dubuque Wahlert, and Decorah were all previous fellow district members at one time or another. Davenport Assumption has played Xavier every season since 2014, either as a non-district opponent or in a playoff game, and West Delaware faced Xavier in the playoffs in 2014.

Let's look at Xavier's all-time record against this year's opponents:

• REGINA: Xavier is 3-1 all time, losing to Drew Cook and company in 2014 then winning three in a row.
• DECORAH: Xavier is 2-1 all time, losing a playoff game to the Vikings in 2015.
• ASSUMPTION: Xavier is 4-0, with two regular season wins and two playoff victories.
• WEST DELAWARE: The Saints won their only meeting, in the 2014 playoffs.
• MAQUOKETA: Xavier went 2-0 against the Cardinals as district mates in 2014-15.
• WAHLERT: Xavier is 9-3 all-time against former MVC member Wahlert, but the Saints are 7-0 since 2006 (I couldn't find the full records to find out when Wahlert last defeated Xavier).
• WESTERN DUBUQUE: Xavier went 1-1 against the Bobcats when they shared a district in 2014-15. Western Dubuque is the only 3A program to beat Xavier during the regular season since the Saints joined 3A in 2014.
• MARION: Xavier is 2-0 all time, again as district foes in 2014-15.

Just as an extremely early heads-up for KMRY radio listeners, once again the Xavier football season starts off conflicting with broadcasts of the Cedar Rapids Kernels baseball games. The Saints' first two games, August 24 vs Regina and August 31 vs Decorah, will be heard on a tape-delay basis following baseball. The third game, September 7 vs  Assumption, will be carried live unless the Kernels make the Midwest League playoffs and the first round playoff series goes the full three games. After that, assuming the Midwest League keeps to their recent championship series schedule that leaves Friday night open, Xavier games will be heard live for the rest of the season.

[Just as an aside, this does bring some interesting technical challenges for KMRY in 2019. Doing tape-delayed home games is easy, and we handled it at Regina last season (once we got a working phone cord); but delayed broadcasts of away games from Decorah and possibly Davenport next year (which will probably be on a Thursday to boot) will require some extra steps!]

PLAYOFF SITUATION

I've mentioned this probably way too much over the past couple of months, but now that we know the schedule, it's worth taking another look at how the playoff structure is changing this season and next.

Since 2016, 16 teams in each class have qualified for the playoffs. District champions (typically 7) and second-place finishers made 14 automatic qualifiers, and the rest of the field was filled through a formula based on district records and point differential in district games. The key to this system (and all playoff qualifiers going back to 2014 in all classes and much earlier than that in all classes but 4A) was that only district games counted for playoff consideration. The games outside your district weren't considered at all as far as the playoffs went.

This has now changed. The state adjusted the number of schools in each class and each district for 2018-19, reducing Class 4A from 48 to 42 members and rolling back classes 3A, 2A, and 1A from 56 to 54. District sizes dropped from 8 members to 6, meaning instead of seven districts, 3A/2A/1A now have nine districts.

This affected playoff qualifying in a number of ways. First, only district champions are automatically in. For most classes, that accounts for nine playoff teams (barring district title ties, of course). The other seven qualifiers will be chosen through an RPI (rating percentage index) formula, and for the first time ever, this formula includes all nine games on a team's schedule, district and non-district. The formula is based on a team's winning percentage (37.5% of the RPI), its opponents' winning percentage (another 37.5%), and the winning percentage of its opponents' opponents (the final 25%). So of course, the better your record, the better chance you have of qualifying, but at the same time, the quality of your opponents (and, to a lesser extent, their opponents) also comes into play.

What does this mean for Xavier, for example? Well, first off, Xavier has won their district each of the four years they've played 3A football. Another district title guarantees a playoff spot. However, if it comes down to RPI to qualify for one of the nine "wild card" positions, here's how Xavier's opponents have fared over the past three seasons:

• REGINA: 23-4 (.851)
• DECORAH: 16-11 (.593)
• ASSUMPTION: 21-6 (.778)
• WEST DELAWARE: 24-3 (.889)
• MAQUOKETA: 7-20 (.259)
• WAHLERT: 13-14 (.481)
• WESTERN DUBUQUE: 15-12 (.556)
• CENTER POINT-URBANA: 10-17 (.370)
• MARION: 11-16 (.407)

Since you can't really control who your district members are, schools do get a chance to request who they'd like to play in non-district games. Xavier has done extremely well here, with four quality non-district opponents holding an overall winning percentage of .778 over the past three seasons. If you only look at results from the last two years instead of the last three, Decorah's win percentage goes up to .667 (as does Western Dubuque's), Wahlert goes up a bit to .556 and Marion climbs to .611 (although Maquoketa's drops to a paltry .056). Regina, Assumption and West Delaware also have some quality teams on their schedule (to figure into Xavier's opponents' opponents winning percentage), but there is a bit of overlap in there, as well (West Delaware plays Wahlert and Marion, for example, while Decorah plays Western Dubuque - those will all even out in the opponents' opponents winning percentage game).

So, what are the prospects for 2018? Xavier has got to be the favorite in D-4; they are the defending state 3A champions, after all, with a 13-game winning streak (and a 27-game regular-season win streak stretching back to the Regina loss in October 2014). Marion is on the rise, with a solid 6-3 season last year that just missed the playoffs; Western Dubuque made the 4A playoff field last year; and Wahlert has good talent coming back from consecutive 5-4 seasons. Should Xavier slip during the district schedule, their RPI should put them in a good position for a wild-card playoff spot. The key, as always, is to take care of your own games. If you win all five district games, you make the playoffs regardless of how your non-district slate goes (you could be 5-4, yet you'd still be district champion). If you don't win the district, you need to handle those non-district games to get a chance at a playoff spot; a 4-1 second-place record may not be enough if you drop two non-district games to end up 6-3, as that drags down your RPI and you need to rely on your opponents having good records to battle other 6-3 (or even 7-2) playoff contenders.

This is all new, for everybody. It will be a really interesting year for Iowa high school football!