Wednesday, July 22, 2015

It Takes Two To Tango. Or Play Football.

Okay, technically, 22. Eleven on each side and all. But the bigger point is, having already examined Xavier's prospects for 2015 - how do the opponents look?

The Saints went 6-3 in the 2014 regular season. Xavier rolled to easy wins against Central-DeWitt, Maquoketa and Marion. They shut out traditional power Solon, used a bevy of turnovers to cruise past an injury-riddled Davenport Assumption, and came back from an early touchdown deficit to thump Dubuque Wahlert. The defense played pretty well in a loss at 4A state champion Dowling. Western Dubuque took a one-point win at Saints Field, preventing Xavier from even completing a pass. And 1A state champ Iowa City Regina broke open a tie game in the fourth quarter to take that decision.

So ... how do all those teams look this year? Davenport Assumption was missing about half their team due to injuries when they played Xavier last year. You know Solon is looking for revenge after being shut out by the Saints. Can Western Dubuque knock off Xavier twice in a row?


DOWLING

The Maroons are, well, a 4A powerhouse in central Iowa. They've won 9 games or more and made the playoffs for seven straight seasons. They've won the state title the past two years, going 27-1 (with only a loss to West Des Moines Valley last season). So, even though they've lost Mr. All-Everything Ryan Boyle to the Iowa Hawkeyes - Dowling's leading passer and rusher last year - you know the Maroons are going to be big, tough, and solid.

The passing game will be a question for the opening game of the year. Returning players had a total of 10 pass attempts all last year. Whoever is the quarterback does have a good returning target in Eric Fardal, with 45 catches for 739 yards and 8 TDs last year. The ground game doesn't bring a lot back, either - Cole Deskin had 511 yards and 8 TDs, while Christian Cavan had 368 yards and 4 scores. On defense, a couple of names you should remember from last year's contest are back (Michael Zachary and Jacob Shedenhelm).

In addition to Boyle, big contributors like Max Morris, Rodney Harris and Gray Gochenour are gone. But Dowling is still the defending 4A champion, and still a strong, dangerous team. I don't think Xavier matches up very well against the Maroons, but if the defense can play as well as they did in 2014, they ought to make it a contest.

I'm most looking forward to the Dowling fans making the trip to Saints Field. The one-way in, the lack of parking, the crowned field - this is no CIML road trip.

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION

The Knights were just crippled by injuries early last year. Down to something like their third-string quarterback by kickoff against Xavier, they ended up playing two other guys at the position by the time the game ended. They have the capability to be a much better team than we saw in 2014. Remember, this is a program that won 23 games between 2011 and 2013 in a 4A conference - their 5-5 record last year is an aberration.

Joe Argo will be back at quarterback. He threw for 876 yards and 9 TDs in an injury-shortened season, while also rushing for 654 yards. Will Ontiveros is also a terrific offensive threat, with 32 catches for 414 yards and another 232 yards on the ground. Carter Kilfoy and Chris Bridges anchor a defense that had issues last year, but return quite a few good contributors (although leading tackler Jake Poster was a senior). Assumption is a proud program, and I expect they will bounce back from last year.

SOLON

You just know Solon is itching to get back at Xavier for that 28-0 shutout last year. The Spartans were also facing some injuries when they came to Saints Field, but even so Xavier played pretty inspired football that night.

Brandon Childs completed 86 of 149 passes for 991 yards and 10 scores, and he is back. He's also the Spartans kicker, connecting on 42 extra points and a field goal, while averaging nearly 34 yards a punt. The ground game will be starting fresh without departed senior Brandon Kramer, as Childs and three other backs combined for 575 yards total. The very tall and usually open Jacob Coons had 17 catches for 198 yards, but needs to improve his hands to be a real threat. Nate Christensen had 13 pass receptions. On the defensive side, leading tackler Spencer Lawson is back (52 tackles and 7 sacks), along with Tanner Wymer and Bo Black.

I expect this game to be a tough one. Xavier has to go on the road to Solon, with the Spartan team and fans howling for revenge for 2014.

CENTRAL CLINTON-DeWITT

The Sabers have had their challenges over the past years. While they won their district in 2007-08, and lost to the eventual state champion in the playoffs in 2007, 2010 and 2012, they've won only 4 games in three of the past four seasons. What makes it worse for 2015 is the fact that basically last year's entire team graduated. Logan Sheppard, James Grell, Ryan Burke ... all seniors in 2014.

Gage Fuller's 16 pass attempts make him the top returning quarterback. Eliot Arensdorf and Levi White ran for just shy of 80 yards apiece, and that makes them the top two returning rushers. Arensdorf and Fuller are also the top two returning pass receivers, with 5 catches between them. Addison Templeton did have 35 tackles last year, so he brings some experience on the defensive side, and Keegan Lass has 24 extra points and three field goals to his credit. But Xavier scored a school-record 59 points on the Sabers last year ... it may not be much better for Central-DeWitt this season.

MAQUOKETA

Maquoketa is another team that had a rough go of 2014. The Cardinals had a run of five straight playoff appearances snapped by last year's 1-8 record - Maquoketa had actually won 22 games in the three seasons prior, with three playoff wins. In 2014, though, the Cardinals had the district's worst ground game, worst total offense, worst passing defense, and worst overall defense (giving up nearly 375 yards a game).

One huge reason for last year's dip was a lack of experience. That won't be the issue in 2015. Leading passer Justin Snyder returns (466 yards), as does leading rusher Jacob Kloft (394 yards) and leading receivers Matt Ambrosy (15 catches) and Skyler Bronson (11 catches for 192 yards). Snyder, Andy Ahrens and Lane Dundee bring experience back on the defensive side, as well.

I expect Maquoketa to have a much better season this year. Xavier has to play them on the road, where anything can happen, so the Saints should not take them lightly.

WESTERN DUBUQUE

This was probably the game that surprised most Xavier fans last year. The Bobcats hadn't really shown their mettle prior to coming to Saints Field - they barely pulled out a win against Dubuque Wahlert - but they played a terrific game, had a near-perfect game plan, and ended up knocking off the Saints 7-6. However, like Central-DeWitt, Western Dubuque loses a lot of their players from the 2014 squad that led the district in total offense.

Leading passer Nolan Baumhover, leading rusher Ben Burds, and top tackler (and All-Name Team member) McKade Bockenstedt have graduated. Returning players have a total of three varsity pass attempts. Reid Hoefler ran for 448 yards and 6 TDs last year, and Mitch Kramer was the leading receiver with 24 catches for 376 yards and 5 scores. Keaton Deutmeyer (7 sacks) and Jake Westhoff were strong players on the defensive side.

A couple of things in the Bobcats' favor ... they don't play Xavier until Week 6, so they'll have the opportunity to get their new starters up and running. And they get Xavier at home in Epworth.

DUBUQUE WAHLERT

Ah, Xavier's old MVC mates, the Golden Eagles. A district opponent that has some history with the Saints - most of it good for the Cedar Rapids team. Xavier is 5-0 against Wahlert since 2008, outscoring the Golden Eagles 180-36. Ouch. Wahlert did make the playoffs in their first year in 3A, although they lost their first-round game to West Delaware and finished 3-7.

Like we mentioned with a couple of other district teams, the Golden Eagles will be missing some key players from 2014. Leading passer Jacob Nemmers - graduated. Star running back Riley Hasken - graduated. Key defender Nathan Gerlach - graduated. Wahlert is going to have to piece together an offense from players who have never thrown a varsity pass, and Mason Flynn's and Lyle Klein's 359 yards rushing - total.

On the plus side, Austin Kluck and Judd White each caught 25 passes last year, and scored 6 TDs between them (one of Kluck's was an absolutely beautiful diving catch in the end zone against Xavier). White also added 15.4 yards per kick return and Kluck averaged 12.7 yards on punt returns. Flynn returns as the team's top tackler in his linebacker spot, with 75 tackles last year. Travis Warden had 61.5 tackles and a sack as well.

IOWA CITY REGINA

It doesn't matter that Regina plays in a class two levels below Xavier. What matters is Regina is 101-6 since the 2007 season began. What matters is Regina has won five consecutive state championships. What matters is Regina's total offense had the second-most yards in the state in 2014 - not the second-most in 1A, the second-most of any school of any size in the state. The Regals are the definition of a dynasty.

That said, Drew Cook, Jake Brinkman and Michael Adam - all huge contributors in Regina's 21-7 win over Xavier - have moved on. The top returning player with varsity experience is Nick Phillips, who is no slouch himself. Phillips had 52 catches for 650 yards and 8 TDs last year, and added 412 yards rushing and 6 more scores. Phillips also averaged 26.2 yards on kick returns and 19.7 on punt returns, and scored three times on returns. Nathan Stenger saw time, too, accounting for 17 touchdowns (11 pass receiving, 3 rushing, 3 more passing). Justin Hunter is the top returning tackler for the second straight year, with 70.5 tackles, one sack and one interception in his junior season.

Regina is definitely a dynasty, and they don't rebuild - they reload. I have to say, though, if there is a year where Xavier might be able to catch the Regals down just a tad, it might be this season. By Week 8, though, nobody will be a "new" starter anymore.

MARION

The Indians are another team that had a tough go if it in 2014, finishing 1-8. After winning 35 games between 2007 and 2010, Marion sandwiched an 8-3 mark in 2012 between two 4-win seasons, then dropped all but one game last year.

The Indians do return some firepower, though. Gage Kray was the leading passer, with 302 yards and 4 TDs to his credit. Kory Walsh (the top ground-gainer for the past two seasons) led the way rushing, picking up 755 yards and 7 scores. That's really about it for statistical returnees, however ... Ryan Whalen caught 5 passes last year, while Kray had 37 tackles. Marion is going to miss players like Hayden Meister, Nick Kramer, John Carstenson and Devin Quinn. It might be another long season at Thomas Park.


A caveat: the one thing for you to remember, dear reader, is that all these statistical returnees (as well as those that have graduated) are just that, the players who get the statistics. As football fans and students of the game, we all know the real keys to a season are those guys up front, the linemen, the ones who protect the quarterback and open holes for the running backs, the ones who plug up the line on the defensive side and harass the opposing passer into throwing the ball away. Those are the guys who don't show up in the numbers game, and those are the guys who can make the real difference on the field.

I don't know if a team that lost most of their ball-handling players like Central-DeWitt or Western Dubuque is returning a bunch of experienced starters on the lines or not. I don't know if Dowling or Regina has nobody coming back who ever blocked a varsity player or made a varsity tackle. I just don't know ... but those factors will make a huge difference in how the games play out. I do know Xavier is going to have to replace their entire offensive and defensive line, but I also know a lot of last year's juniors got to play quite a bit (even if they didn't start) and last year's sophomore team was pretty darn good.

So they got that going for them, which is nice.

We'll start to figure this stuff out on the field in just about a month.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

A Quick Preview of the 2015 Saints

I figure, with only about six weeks until the start of the high school football season, it must be about time to take a look at Xavier's prospects for 2015. Will the Saints defend their Class 3A District 4 title? Is there another strong playoff run in the cards this fall? Can Xavier get to the Dome for the fourth year in a row? Could this be a championship season?

Who knows? High school sports is a story of change - last year's seniors and team leaders graduate and move on, while last season's sophomores and juniors step up in ways no one can predict. But we'll take a look anyway. What else have we got to do?

Xavier is only returning 3 or 4 starters from last year's 9-4 state semifinal squad, none of them up front in the offensive or defensive lines. Jay Kortemeyer, Nic Ekland, Joe Welch, Thomas Ickes, Cam Stovie, Dylan Eller, Louis Hasley, Tim Otting, Matt Downey, Michael Maher ... these guys and so many more that brought so much to the 2014 Saints have graduated. Last year's sophomores had another fine 8-1 season, so there looks to be some talented juniors on the field this year. Also, due to injuries late in the fall, several of this year's seniors who didn't begin 2014 as starters got to see valuable playing time in pressure situations.

First off, Bryce Schulte is back at quarterback. He led the offense as a sophomore last season, and showed a lot of smarts in taking care of the ball. He threw two interceptions in the opener against Dowling, but did not throw another one until the first round of the playoffs. He started pretty slowly as a passer, rarely throwing the ball downfield (and completing zero passes in the loss to Western Dubuque), but over the last weeks of the season and playoffs Schulte found great success with deeper passes and really opened up the offense. Just as an example, he threw for 403 yards and 6 touchdowns in his first three playoff games, with another 142-yard performance against Regina in Week 8. He finished with 1151 yards passing and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for 168 yards and 12 more TDs (plus one touchdown receiving!).

Otherwise on offense, Sean Murphy showed a lot of speed and a lot of promise. He gave senior Jay Kortemeyer a rest at times early in the season, then stepped into the starting tailback role when Kortemeyer was injured in the playoffs. Murphy averaged nearly 6 yards per carry, gaining 479 yards on the year. Speedy Nick Stark is another returning starter, leading the team last year with 26 receptions for 423 yards. The sophomore team also had a few fine offensive players, particularly Maliki Wilson at running back (seeing a lot of the sophomore games last year, he was a treat to watch. He's going to be really good). The real key - as it is every season - is finding the guys on the line to protect Schulte and open holes for Murphy. Replacing players like Otting and Hasley is never easy, but it happens year in and year out.

The Saints were respectable on offense last year. Not great, but respectable. Their 2407 yards rushing was 14th in Class 3A, while their 3639 total yards put them 16th in the state. But as mentioned, Schulte's passing skills took a giant leap forward in the final weeks. If he's able to begin 2015 close to where he left off, the passing game could be much improved. Murphy should be fine at tailback, and as mentioned, Wilson's going to see the field as well.

Defense ... well, the Xavier defense is historically darn good. "But," you say, "who do they have coming back? Isn't Murphy the only guy who started last year? All those linebackers are gone. All those defensive linemen are gone. Who they got?" This would be a reasonable point of view. The entire starting front seven has graduated. Both cornerbacks have moved on. Shall we throw up our hands and say, "It's chaos!"

Well, let's see. Last season Nic Ekland was the only returning starter from a simply dominating defense, one that rung up 8 shutouts in 2013. Eight shutouts in 14 games! Are you kidding me? So what did these 10 new starters do last year? Only gave up under 90 yards per game each rushing and passing during the regular season, leading District 4 by far. Allowed only 24 points to a Dowling team that achieved the 35-point mercy rule in every other regular season game but one. Gave up a total of 40 points in seven regular season games vs. 3A competition. Allowed less than 3 touchdowns in 9 of their 13 games (only Dowling, Regina, Waverly-Shell Rock and Pella were able to get 3 TDs on the Saints ... and three of those squads are state champions. Just sayin'). Yeah, I think that one returning starter didn't really tell the whole story about Xavier's defensive philosophy and style.

And that isn't going to change. While Murphy was the only starter last August, guys like Bryce Charipar (36 tackles, 1 sack) and Caleb Billick (24 tackles, 2 sacks) got a lot of time on the field late in the season. Coach O'Connell is going to have these guys ready once again, and the Saints defense is going to continue to be hard-hitting, tough to gain yards on, tough to score on, and sniffing for turnovers. Never count out the Xavier defense.

So, from where I sit, Xavier comes into 2015 with a lot of promise and a lot of questions. Replacing both the offensive and defensive lines is going to be the biggest question - somebody has to be up front protecting the passer and opening running lanes. Somebody has to be strong on defense to pressure the quarterback and stop breakaway runs. If the line play comes around well at least by the time district play starts September 11, the Saints should be in good shape. Pull for Bryce Schulte to build on his improving passing skills from last October and November, and the running game to hold it's own (improving just a bit to about 200 yards per game would be huge). We don't know who might emerge on defense, but as I said, I don't worry too much about what's going to happen there.

Next up, I'll have a look at what Xavier's opponents are returning for 2015. Spoiler alert: Ryan Boyle, Dante Campero and Max Morris don't play for Dowling anymore. Additional spoiler alert: The odds that Dowling finds some fine replacements for their seniors are pretty high.


Tuesday, July 7, 2015

I Can't Even Keep My Years Straight

Right off the bat - I am such an idiot. In my last post, I was so excited about the state's changes to the playoff structure (cutting the field to 16 teams per class instead of 32, eliminating the Wednesday-Monday-Friday playoff grind) that I neglected to pay full attention to the news coming out of Boone.

That isn't happening this year. That starts next year. In 2016.

So for this season, things continue as they have since 2008. Each class qualifies 32 teams, the top 4 finishers from each district. The first round playoff game is Wednesday, October 28, with the second round Monday, November 2. The quarterfinals are Friday, November 6. Class 3A semifinals will be Thursday, November 12 with the 3A championship on Thursday, November 19.

All clear now? Sorry about that.

At least that means the playoff change will come in combination with a new two-year schedule/district setup, since the state association rejiggers class and district membership and sets up the schedules anew every two seasons. Not to mention, there's rumors floating about that the state might add an additional class, in order to lessen the impact of losing 96 games' worth of ticket sales (all playoff ticket revenue goes directly to the IHSAA). One rumor is making the top 40 teams by size into a new Class 5A. The next 40 would become 4A, then distribute the rest among 3A, 2A, 1A, A and eight-player. That rearrangement would also mean coming up with some kind of at-large qualification system, rather than simply using district finish, which in my mind would be a plus. So instead of cutting playoff teams in half from the current 192 to 96, there would be 112 qualifiers under this system. That way the state loses out on 82 playoff game gates, instead of the 96 they'd lose sticking with 6 classes. (By the way, expect an increase in playoff ticket prices in 2016. You read it here first.)

Okay. So ... starting afresh. But not til next year.

Just because I've been thinking about it, let me mention that the traditional Cedar Rapids Kernels baseball conflict will continue again this year on KMRY (unless something is in the works that I don't know about). The Kernels have regular season games scheduled on Friday, August 28 and Friday, September 4, which means the Xavier games against Dowling and Assumption will be broadcast on a delay following baseball. The next Friday, September 11, when Xavier opens district play at Solon, there is a Midwest League playoff game possible. The Kernels are assured to play in the first round, but that Friday would be Game 3 of a best-of-three series (in other words, "if necessary"). We won't know until the outcome of the game Thursday, September 10 whether we'll be live with Xavier-Solon on the 11th. After that, we should be good - the Midwest League has no playoff games scheduled for Friday, September 18.

2015 Xavier football on KMRY (93.1 FM, 1450 AM, kmryradio.com, TuneIn app):
August 28 vs West Des Moines Dowling - delayed after baseball.
September 4 vs Davenport Assumption - delayed after baseball.
September 11 vs Solon - possibly delayed after baseball.
September 18 vs Central-DeWitt - live
September 25 vs Maquoketa - live
October 2 vs Western Dubuque - live
October 9 vs Dubuque Wahlert - live
October 16 vs Iowa City Regina - live
October 23 vs Marion - live
Playoffs October 28, November 2, November 6, November 12, November 19 - live as far as Xavier can go.

Friday, July 3, 2015

I'm Ba-ack!

Hey, there! Long time no see, folks ... if there are indeed any folks out there taking a peek at my little ol' blog. Anyway, it's time to fire up Third and a Mile yet again.

A lot has happened since I last wrote in November, after Pella handed Xavier their first shutout loss since 2008. In addition to the new washer I told you about last fall, we have a new dishwasher and a new garage door spring (interestingly enough, the spring broke on a Friday afternoon just before we were about to leave on a weekend getaway ... kudos to the Overhead Door Company of Cedar Rapids, who were able to get it fixed by 5:00 that day). I am now eligible to retire from my job as an air traffic controller (eligible doesn't mean I can afford to). And we just got back from a vacation trip to the Black Hills, which was quite enjoyable (and also resulted in a brand new air conditioning system in our vehicle, to go along with our washer/dishwasher/garage door spring).

But we've entered July, which means football isn't that far away - actually eight weeks from tonight, now that you mention it. Heck, the CFL is playing now. I just saw the Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Winnipeg Blue Bombers playing last night. Three downs, twelve players, huge end zones ... weird stuff.

So, the 2015 high school football season approaches. What do we have to look forward to, as far as Xavier's second year in 3A? They finished 9-4 last year, losing in the state semifinals. The Saints have lost more games in a season only once since 2004, with a 5-5 finish in 2011. After that year, Xavier rebounded to a 13-1 mark in 2012 with one of the most exciting and enjoyable teams to watch ever. Similarly, after finishing 8-4 in 2008, the Saints rolled to the state 4A semifinal in 2009 and finished with a 10-3 mark. Will 2015 show another bounceback? I mean, if you consider 9 wins a season as something you bounce back from ... Also, just saying, but 3 of those 4 losses? They just happened to come against state champions (4A Dowling, 1A Regina, 3A Pella).

Iowa sets up their high school football schedules two years at a time, just swapping home and away. 2015 is year two of this cycle, so Xavier plays the same teams they saw last year: Defending 4A champion West Des Moines Dowling August 28, Davenport Assumption September 4, at Solon September 11, Central Clinton-DeWitt September 18, at Maquoketa September 25, at Western Dubuque October 2, Dubuque Wahlert October 9, at defending 1A champion Iowa City Regina October 16, and at Marion October 23. The difference this year is, three of the first four games are at home, which means after September 18 Xavier has only one other home game left for the entire year. While the Saints get to start with two home games, including state champion Dowling, they will have to play at state champion Regina, as well as perennial power Solon and the only district team to beat them last year, Western Dubuque. It will make for a weird schedule.

Another change this year is that the state is cutting playoff qualifiers in half. Only 16 teams from each class will advance to the playoffs, rather than the 32 we've had since 2008. That means only the top two teams from each district will move on, and one round of the playoffs will be eliminated. That also means the end of the grueling Wednesday-Monday-Friday playoff road for the first three rounds. Instead of round one on Wednesday October 28 and round two on Monday November 2, we'll see round one on Friday October 30. Then we'll move right to the quarterfinal round on Friday November 6.

That's the biggest change we're going to see this year. Putting that rule in effect with last year's results would have meant Western Dubuque - the only 3A team to beat Xavier in the regular season - would have missed the playoffs. Also, 7-2 Gilbert and 6-3 teams Newton, Fairfield and Independence would have found themselves turning in their gear instead of playing in the first round. In 4A, four 6-3 teams would have missed the playoffs. In 2A, five 6-3 teams. In 1A, three 7-2 squads and four 6-3 teams would have missed out. In A, one 7-2 team and seven 6-3 teams would have stayed home (it's a bigger class, for one thing). And in eight player, even one 8-1 team would have missed the playoffs along with five 7-2 teams (but eight player is a weird class anyway - is that even football?) It's a good change overall, I think - teams making the quarterfinals were playing four games in two weeks, which is nuts for players, coaches and fans - but there's no denying some deserving teams are going to miss out.

Okay, anyway, I'm back everyone. Next up I'll have a better in-depth look at Xavier and their opponents for this season.