I figure, with only about six weeks until the start of the high school football season, it must be about time to take a look at Xavier's prospects for 2015. Will the Saints defend their Class 3A District 4 title? Is there another strong playoff run in the cards this fall? Can Xavier get to the Dome for the fourth year in a row? Could this be a championship season?
Who knows? High school sports is a story of change - last year's seniors and team leaders graduate and move on, while last season's sophomores and juniors step up in ways no one can predict. But we'll take a look anyway. What else have we got to do?
Xavier is only returning 3 or 4 starters from last year's 9-4 state semifinal squad, none of them up front in the offensive or defensive lines. Jay Kortemeyer, Nic Ekland, Joe Welch, Thomas Ickes, Cam Stovie, Dylan Eller, Louis Hasley, Tim Otting, Matt Downey, Michael Maher ... these guys and so many more that brought so much to the 2014 Saints have graduated. Last year's sophomores had another fine 8-1 season, so there looks to be some talented juniors on the field this year. Also, due to injuries late in the fall, several of this year's seniors who didn't begin 2014 as starters got to see valuable playing time in pressure situations.
First off, Bryce Schulte is back at quarterback. He led the offense as a sophomore last season, and showed a lot of smarts in taking care of the ball. He threw two interceptions in the opener against Dowling, but did not throw another one until the first round of the playoffs. He started pretty slowly as a passer, rarely throwing the ball downfield (and completing zero passes in the loss to Western Dubuque), but over the last weeks of the season and playoffs Schulte found great success with deeper passes and really opened up the offense. Just as an example, he threw for 403 yards and 6 touchdowns in his first three playoff games, with another 142-yard performance against Regina in Week 8. He finished with 1151 yards passing and 14 touchdowns, while also rushing for 168 yards and 12 more TDs (plus one touchdown receiving!).
Otherwise on offense, Sean Murphy showed a lot of speed and a lot of promise. He gave senior Jay Kortemeyer a rest at times early in the season, then stepped into the starting tailback role when Kortemeyer was injured in the playoffs. Murphy averaged nearly 6 yards per carry, gaining 479 yards on the year. Speedy Nick Stark is another returning starter, leading the team last year with 26 receptions for 423 yards. The sophomore team also had a few fine offensive players, particularly Maliki Wilson at running back (seeing a lot of the sophomore games last year, he was a treat to watch. He's going to be really good). The real key - as it is every season - is finding the guys on the line to protect Schulte and open holes for Murphy. Replacing players like Otting and Hasley is never easy, but it happens year in and year out.
The Saints were respectable on offense last year. Not great, but respectable. Their 2407 yards rushing was 14th in Class 3A, while their 3639 total yards put them 16th in the state. But as mentioned, Schulte's passing skills took a giant leap forward in the final weeks. If he's able to begin 2015 close to where he left off, the passing game could be much improved. Murphy should be fine at tailback, and as mentioned, Wilson's going to see the field as well.
Defense ... well, the Xavier defense is historically darn good. "But," you say, "who do they have coming back? Isn't Murphy the only guy who started last year? All those linebackers are gone. All those defensive linemen are gone. Who they got?" This would be a reasonable point of view. The entire starting front seven has graduated. Both cornerbacks have moved on. Shall we throw up our hands and say, "It's chaos!"
Well, let's see. Last season Nic Ekland was the only returning starter from a simply dominating defense, one that rung up 8 shutouts in 2013. Eight shutouts in 14 games! Are you kidding me? So what did these 10 new starters do last year? Only gave up under 90 yards per game each rushing and passing during the regular season, leading District 4 by far. Allowed only 24 points to a Dowling team that achieved the 35-point mercy rule in every other regular season game but one. Gave up a total of 40 points in seven regular season games vs. 3A competition. Allowed less than 3 touchdowns in 9 of their 13 games (only Dowling, Regina, Waverly-Shell Rock and Pella were able to get 3 TDs on the Saints ... and three of those squads are state champions. Just sayin'). Yeah, I think that one returning starter didn't really tell the whole story about Xavier's defensive philosophy and style.
And that isn't going to change. While Murphy was the only starter last August, guys like Bryce Charipar (36 tackles, 1 sack) and Caleb Billick (24 tackles, 2 sacks) got a lot of time on the field late in the season. Coach O'Connell is going to have these guys ready once again, and the Saints defense is going to continue to be hard-hitting, tough to gain yards on, tough to score on, and sniffing for turnovers. Never count out the Xavier defense.
So, from where I sit, Xavier comes into 2015 with a lot of promise and a lot of questions. Replacing both the offensive and defensive lines is going to be the biggest question - somebody has to be up front protecting the passer and opening running lanes. Somebody has to be strong on defense to pressure the quarterback and stop breakaway runs. If the line play comes around well at least by the time district play starts September 11, the Saints should be in good shape. Pull for Bryce Schulte to build on his improving passing skills from last October and November, and the running game to hold it's own (improving just a bit to about 200 yards per game would be huge). We don't know who might emerge on defense, but as I said, I don't worry too much about what's going to happen there.
Next up, I'll have a look at what Xavier's opponents are returning for 2015. Spoiler alert: Ryan Boyle, Dante Campero and Max Morris don't play for Dowling anymore. Additional spoiler alert: The odds that Dowling finds some fine replacements for their seniors are pretty high.
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