Saturday, September 26, 2015

Playoff Thoughts at the Halfway Point

We're just past halfway through the 2015 high school football regular season. With a month of games yet to play, doesn't it seem like a great time to predict everything that's going to happen with 16- and 17-year old high school students playing contests of skill (and luck) in the entire state over the next four games? And then figure on what will happen with playoff matchups? Why, certainly! What could go wrong?

It's a way too early guess at how things might shake out. Only a guess, though ... I'm far too certain of my own fallibility to ever try and gamble at sports. Or much of anything else, really.

But, hey ... let's go! Records are district-only; playoff qualifiers are in bold; ties are broken by my best guess.


DISTRICT 1                                                                
     Sergeant Bluff-Luton                   6-0              
     Bishop Heelan, Sioux City           5-1                          
     Boyden-Hull-Rock Valley            4-2                  
     Spencer                                          3-3                              
     Storm Lake                                     2-4                            
     Le Mars                                          1-5
     Denison-Schleswig                         0-6


DISTRICT 2                                                                      
     Webster City                                6-0                          
     Carroll                                          4-2                          
     Algona                                           4-2                        
     Greene County                             3-3                  
     Boone                                             2-4                    
     Humboldt                                       2-4                        
     Perry                                               0-6                        


DISTRICT 3                                                                      
     West Delaware                             6-0                          
     Independence                               5-1                          
     Crestwood                                     4-2                        
     Decorah                                         3-3                              
     Waverly-Shell Rock                       2-4                          
     Vinton-Shellsburg                          1-5                              
     Charles City                                    0-6                          


DISTRICT 4                                                                        
     Xavier                                            6-0                              
     Solon                                              5-1                                
     Maquoketa                                    4-2                          
     Dubuque Wahlert                         3-3                                
     Western Dubuque                           2-4                                
     Central DeWitt                               1-5                              
     Marion                                            0-6                                


DISTRICT 5
     Davenport Assumption               6-0
     Washington                                  5-1
     Clear Creek-Amana                    4-2
     Keokuk                                          3-3
     Fairfield                                         2-4
     Mt. Pleasant                                   1-5
     Ft. Madison                                    0-6


DISTRICT 6
     Bondurant-Farrar                       6-0
     Gilbert                                           5-1
     Ballard                                          4-2
     Grinnell                                         3-3
     Benton Community                        2-4
     Nevada                                           1-5
     Newton                                           0-6


DISTRICT 7
     Pella                                              6-0
     Norwalk                                        5-1
     Carlisle                                         4-2
     Chariton                                       2-4
     Oskaloosa                                      2-4
     Knoxville                                       2-4
     Saydel                                            0-6


DISTRICT 8
    Glenwood                                       5-1
    Dallas Center-Grimes                   5-1
    Harlan                                            5-1
    Creston                                           3-3
    Winterset                                         2-4
    ADM                                               1-5
     Atlantic                                           0-6


PLAYOFF PAIRINGS

A few things to remember: in the first round, travel is limited to 125 miles. While the state will attempt to avoid rematches, especially within districts, sometimes there just isn't any alternative. The first round is 4th place at 1st place and 3rd place at 2nd place.

In the second round, while the 125-mile limit does not apply, the state will still try to keep travel reasonable and avoid rematches to the extent possible. Also, district champions are not allowed to face each other in the second round. Home teams are determined by highest district finish - ties are broken by alphabetical order, this year.

By the quarterfinals, all bets are off. The state will just try to set pairings that make some geographic sense.

Here we go, along with my wild-eyed shots in the dark at who might win in the first two rounds:

FIRST ROUND
     Greene County at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
     Spencer at Webster City
     Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware
     Decorah at Xavier
     Keokuk at Davenport Assumption          (district rematch: it's either this, or Decorah goes to West Delaware with Keokuk at Xavier and Wahlert at Assumption. Since D-3 already has to have a rematch in the 2-3 game, I went this way)
    Grinnell at Pella
    Chariton at Bondurant-Farrar
    Creston at Glenwood                               (district rematch: Glenwood is far away from everybody)

    Boyden-Hull-Rock Valley at Sioux City Heelan    (district rematch)
    Carlisle at Carroll
    Crestwood at Independence                    (district rematch: Crestwood is far away, too)
    Clear Creek-Amana at Solon
    Maquoketa at Washington
    Algona at Gilbert
    Harlan at Norwalk                                  (this would be a fantastic first-round matchup)
    Ballard at Dallas Center-Grimes

SECOND ROUND (with my wacky predicted first-round winners)
    Harlan at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
    Carlisle at Webster City
    Washington at West Delaware
    Independence at Xavier
    Solon at Davenport Assumption
    Gilbert at Pella
    Dallas Center-Grimes at Bondurant-Farrar
    Sioux City Heelan at Glenwood

QUARTERFINALS
     Sioux City Heelan at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
     Carlisle at Dallas Center-Grimes
     West Delaware at Davenport Assumption
     Xavier at Pella

That is a standout assortment of quarterfinal games, right there, that is.

And that's what I have for you here, after Week 5 of the 2015 season. More updates will be coming as conditions warrant - and they will! Nothing ever goes to plan, you know.

1 comment:

  1. I know I'm way late and a dollar short on this, but after spending time thinking about the quarterfinals: if it is indeed Pella, Xavier, West Delaware and Assumption as district champions lasting to the final eight, I change my mind and think West Delaware plays Xavier (just like last year, although it would be in Manchester this time) and Pella goes to Assumption. It's a little longer trip for Pella/Davenport than Xavier/Pella, but it's a straight shot down I-80, and the overall travel is actually less (since West Del to Davenport is pretty far). So they'd probably do that, instead of sending West Delaware to Davenport.

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