So, of course, I decided to waste a lot of time and brainpower on thinking through how things might play out. If I was really good at this, I'd live in Vegas and wear about a dozen rings and a shirt open to my belt and hang out with showgirls and Sinatra impersonators. Yeah, I'd be a successful gambler, is what I'm saying.
Anyhoo - here's the dillyo for Class 3A leading into the final week of the season:
THE QUALIFIERS
Teams listed in bold are locked into the listed finish in their district. Teams in italics need help to get in. We actually already know 29 of the 32 playoff teams; there are seven teams fighting over the last three spots.
DISTRICT 1
- Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Sioux City Heelan
- Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley or Spencer
- Spencer or Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
Spencer has a shot to get third, if they beat Sergeant Bluff-Luton and BHRV loses to Denison-Schleswig. Probably not gonna happen.
DISTRICT 2
- Webster City
- Carroll
- Algona, Greene County, Humboldt or Boone
- Humboldt, Greene County, Boone, or Algona
A lot could happen for the final two spots here. Humboldt will most likely beat a woeful Perry team this week, while Greene County probably loses to Carroll and Boone almost certainly loses to Webster City. If that happens, Algona takes third and Humboldt fourth.
DISTRICT 3
- West Delaware
- Independence
- Decorah
- Waverly-Shell Rock
DISTRICT 4
- Xavier
- Maquoketa
- Solon or Dubuque Wahlert
- Dubuque Wahlert or Solon
Friday's Solon at Wahlert game is for third place in the district.
DISTRICT 5
- Davenport Assumption or Washington
- Washington or Davenport Assumption
- Clear Creek-Amana or Fairfield
- Fairfield or Clear Creek-Amana
Tonight's Washington-Assumption game is for first place, while tomorrow's Fairfield-CCA game is for third.
DISTRICT 6
- Gilbert
- Ballard
- Bondurant-Farrar
- Benton Community
DISTRICT 7
- Pella
- Norwalk
- Carlisle or Oskaloosa
- Chariton or Knoxville or Carlisle
Likely wins by Carlisle, Norwalk and Pella would result in Carlisle taking third and Chariton fourth. Carlisle is in regardless. An upset by Oskaloosa over Carlisle puts Osky in play for 3rd; a Knoxville upset of Norwalk gives them a chance at 4th.
DISTRICT 8
- Dallas Center-Grimes or Harlan or Glenwood
- Harlan or Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes
- Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes
- Creston
We know the qualifiers, just not the order. Friday's Dallas Center-Grimes vs Glenwood game is big; a win by DCG gives them the title and puts Harlan into second. A Glenwood win, depending on the score, could result in about any outcome, depending on point differential.
Okay, I'm assuming Assumption beats Washington tonight. I think the Knights are a really good team, and this is their year to win the district. In other games that matter, I also predict wins by BHRV, Humboldt (plus Carroll and Webster City), Solon, CCA, Carlisle (and Norwalk), and Dallas Center-Grimes.
Here's my playoff predictions for next Wednesday. Keep in mind it's 4th place finishers at district champions, 3rd place at 2nd place, with a 125-mile travel restriction. If there aren't any other opponents within 125 miles, a team may end up playing someone from their district (again).
4v1
Spencer at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Waverly-Shell Rock at Webster City
Benton Community at West Delaware
Fairfield at Xavier
Wahlert at Assumption
Humboldt at Gilbert
Creston at Pella
Chariton at Dallas Center-Grimes
3v2
BHRV at Heelan
Glenwood at Carroll
Decorah at Independence
CCA at Maquoketa
Solon at Washington
Algona at Ballard
Bondurant Farrar at Norwalk
Carlisle at Harlan
Now, if Washington beats Assumption tonight, that would mean only minor changes. Wahlert would then go to West Delaware, while Benton would travel to Washington and Solon would go to Assumption.
Should Fairfield beat CCA tomorrow, I think CCA then ends up going to Xavier. That result would shake up the 3v2 matchups, though, and I haven't felt up to digging that deep into there.
We shall see. With 29 teams already assured (and all the home teams except for District 8 set), there's not a whole lot of wiggle room with who can go where - but the state can still surprise me.
No comments:
Post a Comment