Yes, The Playoffs Are Coming

In past seasons, I've usually been excited to put out my playoff predictions and prognostications as we roll into the final weeks of the high school football season. While I've done my work and posted it on the Iowa Preps message board, I have fallen short by not putting it up here for all my blog followers. All ... there's one or two of you, I know.

So now there's only one week left, and things are almost set as far as qualifiers go. What's not decided, though, are those pesky at-large spots, which causes a lot of uncertainty as far as bracketing and possible playoff opponents go. In the past two seasons, you knew a fourth-place district finisher would have to play a district champion in the first round, with a third-place team at a second-place team. The options were limited. It's different now ... you'll have seven district champions and seven second-place teams, with two at-large, so the at-larges will be at district champions, and five of the second-place teams will be at district champions, with two second-place teams facing each other, with geography driving the decisions, not to mention we can't know the at-large teams until after Friday night's games ... no wonder the state is going to have a televised playoff bracket show this Saturday morning.

Anyway, let's look at what we've got at the moment:

DISTRICT 1

• Storm Lake and Sergeant Bluff/Luton are in the playoffs. They play each other Friday to decide the district champion.
• Sioux City Heelan can get to 5-2 in the district and make the at-large pool with a win over Spirit Lake.

DISTRICT 2

• Boone is in the playoffs. They'll win the district if they beat Webster City.
• Webster City wins the district if they beat Boone. They are in the playoffs unless they lose and Gilbert beats Dallas Center/Grimes, and even then they're in the at-large pool.
• Gilbert is in the at-large pool at least if they win. If Webster City also loses, they finish second and are in for certain.
• Dallas Center/Grimes can make the at-large pool by beating Gilbert.

DISTRICT 3

• Xavier has won the district.
• Benton will finish second.
• Waverly-Shell Rock can get in the at-large pool with a win over Charles City.

DISTRICT 4

• West Delaware wins the district if they beat Maquoketa. If they lose they are at worst in the at-large pool, and that only if Davenport Assumption beats Marion and Clear Creek/Amana beats Central De Witt. In that case, Assumption and Clear Creek/Amana are the top two finishers and West Delaware is in the at-large pool; in all other cases, West Delaware is in at least a tiebreak for an assured playoff spot and would likely get first or second.
• Davenport Assumption is in if they beat Marion or if West Delaware loses. They'd still be in the tiebreaker pool with a loss and a West Delaware win.
• Clear Creek/Amana is in at worst a tiebreak situation if they win and West Delaware loses. They're in the at-large pool with a win and a West Delaware win.
• Marion is in if they beat Davenport Assumption.

DISTRICT 5

• Solon has won the district.
• Oskaloosa will finish second.

DISTRICT 6

• Pella has won the district.
• The winner of the Norwalk-Carlisle game will finish second. The loser will be in the at-large pool.

DISTRICT 7

• The winner of the Creston/OM-Carroll game wins the district, the loser will be second.
• Glenwood can get into the at-large pool with a win over ADM.

To recap: ASSURED PLAYOFF SPOTS

• Storm Lake
• Sergeant Bluff/Luton
• Boone
• Xavier (district champion)
• Benton
• Solon (district champion)
• Oskaloosa
• Pella
• Creston/OM
• Carroll

ASSURED AT LEAST AT-LARGE CONSIDERATION

• Webster City
• Davenport Assumption
• Norwalk
• Carlisle

IN AT-LARGE POOL (at least) WITH A WIN

• Sioux City Heelan
• Gilbert
• Dallas Center/Grimes
• Waverly-Shell Rock
• Marion (in playoffs for certain with a win)
• Clear Creek/Amana
• Glenwood

So, your likely district champions are Storm Lake/Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Boone/Webster City, Xavier, West Delaware (probably), Solon, Pella, and Creston-OM/Carroll.

Likely second-place finishers are Sergeant Bluff-Luton/Storm Lake, Webster City/Boone, Benton, Davenport Assumption (likely), Oskaloosa, Norwalk/Carlisle, and Carroll/Creston-OM.

Here's the issue with matchups: the state is going to bracket. They can't have more than two district champions in any of the four brackets, for balance. We'll likely have Xavier/Solon/West Delaware all grouped in the east. One of those three will have to be bracketed with Pella, most likely (perhaps Boone instead of Pella, depending on how things shake out) - which means if it's Xavier (which is the westernmost team of those three) you're looking at a potential matchup of 10-0 teams facing each other in an elimination game in the quarterfinals, with one of them not even making the Dome. Sad!

(Note of interest: if that Pella-Xavier matchup did happen, it would be at Saints Field. Playoff sites between teams of equal district records/finishes is based on the alphabet, starting with the letter "J" for 2016. The team LAST alphabetically is the host team; Pella comes after "J,", and Xavier, Cedar Rapids comes after that, so Xavier would be the home team. Should the state put Xavier in a bracket with Boone instead, and those teams met in the quarterfinals, that would be at Boone.)

Falling Behind

There's a double meaning in my title for this blog. First, the fact I've been falling behind in posting. That's on me (of course - who else would it be on?). With a trip out of state immediately following the Xavier-Waverly/Shell Rock game on the 7th, and the necessities of life piling up over the following week, well ... I didn't get to this.

So let's quickly go over the Waverly/Shell Rock game. It looked like perhaps Xavier's toughest game of the season, and almost certainly their toughest game in District 3. The Go-Hawks had the district's toughest defense (giving up fewer than 35 passing yards per game!) and a balanced offense featuring the district's leading passer in John Stensland and one of the leading rushers in Gabe Santioemma. Waverly/Shell Rock needed a win to keep hopes of a top-two finish in the district and a playoff spot.

So, naturally, the game turned out to be almost a carbon copy of Xavier's dominating win over the last-place Independence Mustangs the week before. Actually, Xavier set a record by allowing the fewest yards in a game ever (just 22 yards from the Go-Hawk offense, including -1 on the ground) as the Saints cruised to a 42-0 victory. Xavier's defense harassed Stensland all night, and stopped the ground game cold. Maliki Wilson, the state's leading rusher in Class 3A, ripped his way to a new career rushing mark and Bryce Schulte threw for nearly 100 yards.

On to the second meaning of my title. Xavier rolled into Friday's home game against a 2-5 Vinton/Shellsburg squad on a pretty high note; coming off two straight shutouts, the offense setting records, an undefeated season continuing with a playoff spot assured. The Vikings, on the other hand, were struggling with one of the district's poorest season performances - although they were coming off a shutout win of their own, a 39-0 blanking of poor Independence. It looked like another mismatch on the Saints' road to a deep playoff run.

Vinton/Shellsburg took the opening kickoff, and used their deceptive single-wing/wing-T offense to immediately rip off a 12-yard gain on the first play. On the fourth play, fullback Wes Edwards took a handoff up the middle, burst through the line, and found a wide-open field. He didn't stop until reaching the end zone 71 yards later. The Vikings went for two, and Xavier trailed 8-0. It's the first time the Saints had fallen behind (Aha! There it is!) an opponent since the third quarter of their game against Linn-Mar all the way back on September 2.

Okay, so, big play, big deal. Xavier would certainly respond, as they had scored on their opening possession of the game all seven times this season. They'd outscored opponents 122-6 in first quarters over the year, shutting out everyone except Iowa City Regina in the opener. So the Saints rolled out for their first possession and ... went three and out. On their second possession, they drove 47 yards, but missed a field goal try. On their third possession - hold on now, we're in the second quarter already? And still trailing 8-0?

The Saints realized they had their hands full. Vinton/Shellsburg, led by former Cedar Rapids Jefferson coach Jim Womochil, was prepared and fired up. While their offense slowed down a little after breaking the big-play TD run, defensively the Vikings were on top of nearly everything Xavier tried to run. Wilson was trapped at or behind the line of scrimmage multiple times. Screen passes to the slot receiver were stopped at the point of the catch. Option plays had a man on both Schulte and Wilson.

Finally, midway through the second quarter, Xavier got their heads in the game and buckled down. It started after the Vikings drove to the Saints 20-yard line after a personal foul penalty. Edwards ran for 5 to the 15, Tanner Davis ran for 1, Will Edwards was tackled for a loss of 1, then Blake Bohnsack's 4th down pass fell incomplete. Xavier took over on downs and started a 9-play, 85-yard drive. A clutch 15-yard pass from Schulte to Brett Burns on 3rd and 8 was a big play, then Schulte found his brother Quinn down the middle between two defenders, with a nice throw and a nice catch combining for a 37-yard TD. Wilson took the ball to try for the two-point conversion, but was stuffed. Xavier still trailed 8-6 with 3:15 left in the first half.

Still in the bank for Xavier's defense was their turnover ratio. Over the season the Saints had forced 16 turnovers, while turning the ball over only twice themselves. Nine of those 16 turnovers led directly to points, with the Saints getting 59 points from turnovers in the first seven games. So, here, with less than 3 minutes left in the half and trailing 8-6, it was the perfect time for Josh Gerke to nab Bohnsack's overthrown pass for an interception inside Vinton/Shellsburg territory.

A penalty on the return moved Xavier back to their 49, where Schulte found Schulte for 11 yards on 3rd and 10. A Wilson 15-yard run got into the red zone, and after another penalty, Schulte found Burns beating his defender for a 25-yard TD pass. The two-point conversion failed again, but Xavier had retaken the lead at 12-8 with 31 seconds to go in the half.

Remember that note about Xavier scoring on their opening possession every game but this one? Similarly, the Saints had scored on the opening drive of the second half every game but Linn-Mar. They took the kickoff, had a great return up to the 43, but found themselves facing a 4th and 1 at the Vinton/Shellsburg 48-yard line. Now fullback Erik Rodriguez stepped up. Rodriguez put the team on his back all night, with nice lead blocks and terrific efforts every time he touched the ball, whether it be on a screen pass reception or, as in this case, he gets the carry up the middle. This time he blasted his way for the first down ... kept his feet driving ... broke a couple of tackles and got loose ... split two more tacklers downfield ... headed for the pylon ... and dove for the end zone as he was caught from behind. The ball broke the plane as Rodriguez finished an incredible 48-yard run that put Xavier up 18-8.

Now the Xavier defense stepped up again, as well. A three-and-out for the Vikings set up Xavier at the Vinton/Shellsburg 38, where a play later Wilson ran away from everyone for a 34-yard score. The next Viking play was a fumble; their next possession another three and out. Late in the third quarter Will Edwards ripped off a 22-yard run, but that was followed by a loss of a yard, a sack, and an incompletion (Vinton/Shellsburg would complete zero passes on the night, save for their two-point conversion).

The Saints weren't doing much with the ball either, with a series of three-and-outs taking us into the fourth quarter. A terrible shanked punt by Ryan Jasper gave the Vikings the ball at midfield, where Will Edwards took off on another long run to the Xavier 15. On third and 10, Bohnsack looked for his tall tight end, Nate Struve, and fired a good pass about shoulder high. It bounced off Struve, though, high into the air and intercepted by Nolan Butkowski at the goal line. Butkowski ran it back to the 27.

And Xavier applied the coup-de-grace (can I put French into this blog? Doing it). An 11-play, 73-yard drive, eating up nearly all the rest of the quarter, featuring yet another "I'm not going down, y'all" 22-yard run from Rodriguez among five first downs on the drive, ended with a 2-yard scoring pass from Schulte to Schulte. It was 32-8 and that's how it would end.

You look at the final score, you think another smooth win for Xavier. You were there to watch, you think, that was a tough win that might have exposed some things for future opponents. The Saints still have some work to do, even at 8-0 with the district title in hand.

Outgunned, outmanned

That was Independence last Friday night. The Mustangs came to Saints Field already suffering from a rough season (only one touchdown in five games), but they arrived with about a quarter of their roster missing practice for at least part of the week and their top rusher (Ethan Holt) and receiver (Cyrus Butters) both in street clothes.

It went about as you would expect. Xavier rolled to a 45-0 victory (so still just one touchdown for Independence on the year) behind two TD runs from Maliki Wilson, two TD runs from Bryce Schulte, and two TD passes from Schulte. The Saints defense held Indee to negative yards rushing, about 40 yards total offense, and gave up one first down (that came in the last half of the fourth quarter).

This week Xavier moves on to Waverly-Shell Rock, as the playoff picture starts to emerge. The Go-Hawks are in a tie for second at the moment with a 3-1 district record (along with Benton and Charles City). Waverly-Shell Rock has already lost to Benton, and the Bobcats play Charles City this week. Basically, wins by Xavier and Benton Friday almost certainly mean those two teams finish atop District 3 and earn playoff spots (Xavier has 1-5 Vinton-Shellsburg next week and finishes with 3-3 South Tama; Benton plays 0-6 Independence and finishes with Vinton-Shellsburg).

So Waverly-Shell Rock is in a must-win situation. They already lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with Benton, so dropping the head-to-head with Xavier almost guarantees they can't get into the top two spots. The Go-Hawks are no Independence, by the way - they feature the saltiest defense in District 3 (giving up 146 yards per game on the ground and a crazy 38 yards per game passing, for under 185 yards per game total), and while they're in the middle of the pack offensively, John Stensland is the leading passer in the district with 886 yards and 10 touchdowns.

On the Xavier records front, Maliki Wilson is just 122 yards away from breaking Brendan Miller's career mark of 2498 yards rushing. Considering Wilson is averaging 184 yards per game, that mark should fall this week. He's also just 4 rushing TDs away from Will Martin's 9-game season record of 17, set in the championship year of 2006, and 22 points away from Martin's 9-game record of 114. Bryce Schulte (who already this season set school career marks in total TDs and pass attempts) is 39 yards away from his brother Reggie's career record of 4092 total yards, 4 TD passes away from Reggie's career 49, 35 completions from Reggie's 265, and 543 passing yards away from Reggie's 4002. The only one of those that should fall this week is the total yardage record, but a big game could get him the passing TD mark as well. The career completions mark should be Bryce's by the time the season is over ... the passing yardage mark might take a good playoff run (or a huge passing night) before Reggie gives that up.