Yes, The Playoffs Are Coming

In past seasons, I've usually been excited to put out my playoff predictions and prognostications as we roll into the final weeks of the high school football season. While I've done my work and posted it on the Iowa Preps message board, I have fallen short by not putting it up here for all my blog followers. All ... there's one or two of you, I know.

So now there's only one week left, and things are almost set as far as qualifiers go. What's not decided, though, are those pesky at-large spots, which causes a lot of uncertainty as far as bracketing and possible playoff opponents go. In the past two seasons, you knew a fourth-place district finisher would have to play a district champion in the first round, with a third-place team at a second-place team. The options were limited. It's different now ... you'll have seven district champions and seven second-place teams, with two at-large, so the at-larges will be at district champions, and five of the second-place teams will be at district champions, with two second-place teams facing each other, with geography driving the decisions, not to mention we can't know the at-large teams until after Friday night's games ... no wonder the state is going to have a televised playoff bracket show this Saturday morning.

Anyway, let's look at what we've got at the moment:

DISTRICT 1

• Storm Lake and Sergeant Bluff/Luton are in the playoffs. They play each other Friday to decide the district champion.
• Sioux City Heelan can get to 5-2 in the district and make the at-large pool with a win over Spirit Lake.

DISTRICT 2

• Boone is in the playoffs. They'll win the district if they beat Webster City.
• Webster City wins the district if they beat Boone. They are in the playoffs unless they lose and Gilbert beats Dallas Center/Grimes, and even then they're in the at-large pool.
• Gilbert is in the at-large pool at least if they win. If Webster City also loses, they finish second and are in for certain.
• Dallas Center/Grimes can make the at-large pool by beating Gilbert.

DISTRICT 3

• Xavier has won the district.
• Benton will finish second.
• Waverly-Shell Rock can get in the at-large pool with a win over Charles City.

DISTRICT 4

• West Delaware wins the district if they beat Maquoketa. If they lose they are at worst in the at-large pool, and that only if Davenport Assumption beats Marion and Clear Creek/Amana beats Central De Witt. In that case, Assumption and Clear Creek/Amana are the top two finishers and West Delaware is in the at-large pool; in all other cases, West Delaware is in at least a tiebreak for an assured playoff spot and would likely get first or second.
• Davenport Assumption is in if they beat Marion or if West Delaware loses. They'd still be in the tiebreaker pool with a loss and a West Delaware win.
• Clear Creek/Amana is in at worst a tiebreak situation if they win and West Delaware loses. They're in the at-large pool with a win and a West Delaware win.
• Marion is in if they beat Davenport Assumption.

DISTRICT 5

• Solon has won the district.
• Oskaloosa will finish second.

DISTRICT 6

• Pella has won the district.
• The winner of the Norwalk-Carlisle game will finish second. The loser will be in the at-large pool.

DISTRICT 7

• The winner of the Creston/OM-Carroll game wins the district, the loser will be second.
• Glenwood can get into the at-large pool with a win over ADM.

To recap: ASSURED PLAYOFF SPOTS

• Storm Lake
• Sergeant Bluff/Luton
• Boone
• Xavier (district champion)
• Benton
• Solon (district champion)
• Oskaloosa
• Pella
• Creston/OM
• Carroll

ASSURED AT LEAST AT-LARGE CONSIDERATION

• Webster City
• Davenport Assumption
• Norwalk
• Carlisle

IN AT-LARGE POOL (at least) WITH A WIN

• Sioux City Heelan
• Gilbert
• Dallas Center/Grimes
• Waverly-Shell Rock
• Marion (in playoffs for certain with a win)
• Clear Creek/Amana
• Glenwood

So, your likely district champions are Storm Lake/Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Boone/Webster City, Xavier, West Delaware (probably), Solon, Pella, and Creston-OM/Carroll.

Likely second-place finishers are Sergeant Bluff-Luton/Storm Lake, Webster City/Boone, Benton, Davenport Assumption (likely), Oskaloosa, Norwalk/Carlisle, and Carroll/Creston-OM.

Here's the issue with matchups: the state is going to bracket. They can't have more than two district champions in any of the four brackets, for balance. We'll likely have Xavier/Solon/West Delaware all grouped in the east. One of those three will have to be bracketed with Pella, most likely (perhaps Boone instead of Pella, depending on how things shake out) - which means if it's Xavier (which is the westernmost team of those three) you're looking at a potential matchup of 10-0 teams facing each other in an elimination game in the quarterfinals, with one of them not even making the Dome. Sad!

(Note of interest: if that Pella-Xavier matchup did happen, it would be at Saints Field. Playoff sites between teams of equal district records/finishes is based on the alphabet, starting with the letter "J" for 2016. The team LAST alphabetically is the host team; Pella comes after "J,", and Xavier, Cedar Rapids comes after that, so Xavier would be the home team. Should the state put Xavier in a bracket with Boone instead, and those teams met in the quarterfinals, that would be at Boone.)