Anyway, here's a look at how I think things might shake out in Class 3A. All predictions are tentative. Many of the teams I list as "out" of the playoffs already might technically still have an outside shot, should they get in a multiple-team tie that has to go to the points tiebreaker. I might also still win the Powerball someday. Please, no wagering!
DISTRICT 1
- Sergeant Bluff-Luton 7-0
- Heelan, Sioux City 5-2 (head-to-head over Storm Lake)
- Storm Lake 5-2
- Spencer 4-3
- Spirit Lake 3-4
- Algona 2-5 (head-to-head over Humboldt)
- Humboldt 2-5
- Le Mars 0-7
Le Mars has been eliminated from the playoffs. Several teams can be counted out based on this coming Friday's results: A Heelan win over Algona eliminates Algona; a win by SB-L over Humboldt eliminates Humboldt; the loser of Spirit Lake at Storm Lake is also out.
BIG GAMES LEFT: Spirit Lake at Storm Lake this week; Spencer at Storm Lake Oct. 13; Storm Lake at SB-L Oct. 20.
DISTRICT 2
- Dallas Center-Grimes 7-0
- Boone 6-1
- Webster City 5-2
- Ballard 4-3
- Perry 2-5 (head-to-head over Gilbert)
- Gilbert 2-5
- Greene County 1-6
- Iowa Falls-Alden 0-7
Perry, Greene County, and Iowa Falls-Alden have already been eliminated (Gilbert still has a slight chance, as they still play DC-G, but they are eliminated this week if DC-G defeats IF-A). A Boone win over Ballard this week eliminates Ballard.
BIG GAMES LEFT: Boone at DC-G Oct. 13; Webster City at Boone Oct. 20.
DISTRICT 3
- Xavier, Cedar Rapids 7-0
- Waverly-Shell Rock 6-1
- Decorah 5-2
- Benton 4-3
- Independence 3-4
- Charles City 1-6
- South Tama 1-6
- Vinton-Shellsburg 1-6
Bentonis already out of playoff contention (they'd lose every possible tiebreaker). Any loss by Independence takes the Mustangs out. A Waverly-Shell Rock win over Xavier Friday knocks out Charles City, while a Xavier win eliminates Vinton-Shellsburg and a Decorah win over South Tama knocks out South Tama.
BIG GAMES LEFT: Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier this Friday could decide the district champion.
DISTRICT 4
- West Delaware 7-0
- Assumption, Davenport 6-1
- Wahlert, Dubuque 5-2
- Marion 4-3
- Clear Creek-Amana 3-4
- Center Point-Urbana 2-5
- Central DeWitt 1-6
- Maquoketa 0-7
Central DeWitt and Maquoketa are out of the playoffs. An Assumption victory over CPU this Friday will end CPU's playoff hopes.
BIG GAMES LEFT: Wahlert at West Delaware this Friday; West Delaware at Marion Oct. 13, Marion at Assumption Oct. 20.
DISTRICT 5
- Solon 7-0
- Oskaloosa 6-1
- Washington 5-2
- Mt. Pleasant 4-3
- Ft. Madison 3-4
- West Burlington/ND 2-5
- Fairfield 1-6
- Keokuk 0-7
Everybody here is still technically alive for the playoffs, but who's a technician when it comes to football (plus Ft. Madison, Fairfield, and Keokuk are all so far behind with point differentials that they pretty much have no hope at this time)? The loser of the Fairfield at Ft. Madison game Friday is done; Ft. Madison is done even if they win out, should Oskaloosa defeat Washington Oct. 13. A Solon victory over Mt. Pleasant Friday mathematically eliminates Mt. Pleasant, while an Oskaloosa win over Keokuk eliminates Keokuk.
BIG GAMES LEFT: Oskaloosa at Washington Oct. 13 will probably decide second place. They are very evenly matched, it appears; I give a very slight edge to Oskaloosa.
DISTRICT 6
- Pella 7-0
- Norwalk 6-1
- Carlisle 5-2
- Nevada 3-4 (head-to-head over Bondurant-Farrar)
- Bondurant-Farrar 3-4
- Grinnell 2-5 (head-to-head over North Polk)
- North Polk 2-5
- Knoxville 0-7
Knoxville, Grinnell, and Bondurant-Farrar are out of the playoffs. Either a Pella win or a North Polk loss eliminates North Polk.
BIG GAMES LEFT: Norwalk at Pella this Friday probably decides the district title; Norwalk at Carlisle Oct. 20 could be a game for second place.
DISTRICT 7
- Harlan 7-0
- Glenwood 6-1
- Winterset 5-2
- Denison-Schleswig 4-3
- Carroll 3-4
- Atlantic 2-5
- Creston OM 1-6
- ADM 0-7
ADM, Carroll, and Creston are all out of playoff contention. A Harlan win or Atlantic loss eliminates Atlantic.
BIG GAMES LEFT: Harlan at Winterset this Friday; Winterset at Glenwood Oct. 13; Denison-Schleswig at Winterset Oct. 20 (yep, Winterset really has control of their destiny).
PLAYOFF QUALIFIERS: District champions SB-L, DC-G, Xavier, West Delaware, Solon, Pella, Harlan; Second place finishers Heelan, Boone, Waverly-Shell Rock, Assumption, Oskaloosa, Norwalk, Glenwood.
WILD CARD POOL: The 5-2 teams - Storm Lake, Webster City, Decorah, Wahlert, Washington, Carlisle, Winterset. Using the 17-point differential as it currently stands, that would put Winterset and Carlisle in as wild-card teams (Carlisle and Wahlert have the same differential, but Carlisle would get the alphabetical order).
FIRST ROUND POSSIBLE MATCHUPS:
- Glenwood at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Waverly-Shell Rock at West Delaware
- Carlisle at Xavier
- Assumption at Solon
- Oskaloosa at Pella
- Winterset at Dallas Center-Grimes
- Norwalk vs. Boone
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