Spinning Round Like New School Records

This wasn’t looking to set up as a record-setting season for Xavier back in August. Hopes were high, sure, with the defending state 3A champions bringing back some key parts from last year. There was speculation the Saints would be really good again, perhaps even better than 2017.

Let the record show not only are the 2018 Saints looking like a cut above the 2017 state champs, in some respects this may be one of the best Xavier teams ever. And they’ve made their mark in the school record book to stake their claim. Let’s go through some of the new records this year’s squad is making.

WIN STREAK

• Xavier actually surpassed their old win-streak record several games ago, and are currently at 22 games and counting. The Saints’ last loss came in the 2016 semifinal, when Pella mounted a furious drive and scored on the final play to defeat Xavier 34-30.
• Xavier also has a 36-game regular season win streak going into the 2019 season. Their last regular-season loss came in Week 8 of the 2014 season, when the Saints lost to Iowa City Regina. Xavier won the next week against Marion; opened the 2015 season with a game against West Des Moines Dowling that was canceled by weather; then went 8-0 in 2015, 9-0 in 2016, 9-0 in 2017, and 9-0 again this year.
• The Saints have lost one district game in five years of 3A play (7-6 to Western Dubuque in 2014).

TEAM SCORING (added Oct. 26)

• With so many other numbers to total (plus trying to do this in the middle of three other things, like, you know, work) I totally spaced off the fact that Xavier’s offense set a new regular-season scoring record this year. The previous record (383 points), set in 2012, has been surpassed by this season’s total of 395 points. The 13-game record of 531 was also set in 2012; Xavier can move above that by scoring over 34 points per game in four playoff games.

TEAM DEFENSE

• The regular season record for fewest points allowed was shattered - Xavier gave up just 28 points in nine games, blowing past the 2006 mark of 47. The Saints allowed four touchdowns (with just one successful point after) and a field goal. Only 3 points were scored in the first quarter (by Decorah); just 6 in the second (by West Delaware); and zero points were allowed in the third. The other 19 points all came in the fourth quarter (another West Delaware TD plus scores by Iowa City Regina and Dubuque Wahlert). The record for fewest points allowed in 13 games is 88, set in 2006. If Xavier gives up fewer than 15 points per game and plays 4 playoff games, they'll set a new record.
• The Saints defense also set new regular season marks for fewest rushing yards allowed (458, beating the 2006 record by some 50 yards) and fewest total yards allowed (1168, topping the 2013 record by over 200 yards). The mark for fewest rushing yards in 13 games is 909, and fewest total yards in 13 games is 1831. That makes those marks pretty tough to hit, requiring the Saints to give up less than 110 rushing yards per game or 166 total yards per game over four playoff contests.
• While I don’t know if there’s an actual regular season record for most shutouts, this year’s team posted five, including three in a row to end the season (and almost shut out all five district opponents in a row, save the late TD scored by Wahlert). Five shutouts in the regular season matches the 2013 squad, who holds the overall shutout record with 8 in 14 games.

BEN CONRAD

• Conrad is becoming one of the most prolific kickers in Xavier history. He tied one school record in 2017 with three field goals in a game (vs Independence). This year he has been perfect on extra points (52-52). The 52 PATs are a new regular season school record. Add to that his 9 field goals (also a regular season record) and he has 79 kicking points, another regular season record. For 13-game season records, including playoffs, Ryan Persick had 11 field goals in 2012 along with 66 extra points and 93 kicking points.
• Conrad also has, I believe, five field goals of 40 yards or longer in his career, which is remarkable for a high school kicker. He tied the school record for longest field goal with a 48-yarder against Maquoketa, and also had field goals of 47 and 45 yards. His only miss of the year came on a 46-yard attempt vs. Dubuque Wahlert.
• For career records, Conrad still is behind Ryan Persick (2011-13); Persick had 120 career extra points (Conrad currently has 106), 23 field goals (Conrad has 18), and 189 kicking points (Conrad has 160).

QUINN SCHULTE

• Schulte has totaled up some impressive scoring records, thanks to three years of varsity play (as a receiver his sophomore year in 2016 with his brother Bryce at quarterback, Quinn caught 52 passes for 546 yards and 5 TDs). He is tied with Will Martin for career touchdowns, with 42, as well as career points, with 252. His 37 career rushing TDs are just two behind Martin's 39. He also tied Martin for the school regular season rushing touchdown mark, with his two scores against Marion giving him 17 for the season.
• In total yards (rushing, receiving and passing) Schulte is moving up on his brother Bryce's career mark of 5103 yards. Quinn has 4670 going into the 2018 playoffs, putting him just 433 yards back (he's averaging over 205 yards of total offense per game this season).
• While Schulte's passing yards and TDs don't quite measure up to his brothers' Reggie and Bryce, it's kind of interesting to see how many scores Quinn has accounted for. While he's scored 42 himself (37 rushing and 5 receiving), he's also thrown for 35 ... so he's been involved in 77 touchdowns in his three seasons at Xavier. I don't think anybody keeps track of that as a record, but it's an impressive number.

The March Continues

Xavier’s streak lives on, as the Saints won their 21st consecutive game (and 35th straight regular season game) with a 41-0 shutout of Center Point-Urbana. The victory sets up the final game of the season between Xavier (8-0, 4-0 in D-4) and Marion (4-4, 3-1 in the district). Xavier wins the district outright with a win (that would be their fifth straight district title in Class 3A) while Marion gets at least a share of the championship and a playoff spot if they win (couple a win by Marion with a Western Dubuque loss to Maquoketa and Marion is the champion).

Xavier rolled over CPU without much difficulty, scoring on all six first-half possessions and starting the continuous clock for the eighth time with a third-quarter touchdown. That touchdown was special ... Braden Stovie had a chance to carry the ball in, but went down at the 2. On the next play, Quinn Schulte tossed a scoring pass to Kyle Thompson, a player who means a lot to the Saints. Thompson is a converted lineman who has spent his years working away on the scout team, and it obviously pleased the Xavier side for him to get a score. The players on the field (and the Xavier coaches next to me in the booth) celebrated that quite a bit.

Schulte had another big game, with 200+ yards passing for the second straight week. Perhaps the best drive was in the second quarter, when a nice CPU punt had Xavier backed up at the 1. Schulte threw three consecutive passes to Kyle Moeder, covering the entire 99 yards and ending with a 27-yard TD pass. The defense put up their fourth shutout of the year (and could have had two more, with late scores by Regina and Dubuque Wahlert coming against the scout defense). The Saints added four or five sacks, too ... Jon Bell leads D-4 with six (officially, although I think he’s got eight or nine) and Kyle Krezek has five (again, at least).

I’ve been a little slack in my usual tracking of potential school records, so let me rectify that a bit. Ben Conrad booted two field goals against CPU (including a 45-yarder at the end of the first half), making him 9 for 10 on field goal attempts. Those nine kicks equal the school record for field goals in a regular season (Ryan Persick in 2012), so another one this week sets a new mark. Conrad already has surpassed the school record for kicking points in a regular season, with 72 going into Friday night (61 was the old mark, again by Persick). Meanwhile, Schulte is on the precipice of breaking Will Martin’s 2006 record for rushing touchdowns in the regular season. Schulte has 16, one behind Martin’s total.

So this Friday brings the end of the regular season and the beginning of the postseason. Xavier is, I think, assured of a playoff spot regardless of what happens Friday - with a win they’ll have one of the top 3 RPIs in the class, probably, which means they’d host the first two rounds of the playoffs. The only way they go on the road for the first round is a loss to Marion plus a Maquoketa win over Western Dubuque, which is vanishingly unlikely. Who will the opponent be? Well ... the 3A field is going to be stacked. Xavier, Solon, and Lewis Central are likely to be undefeated; Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Sioux City Heelan, Waverly-Shell Rock, North Scott, Clear Creek-Amana, Oskaloosa, and Pella could all be 8-1. That’s 10 teams out of 16 with one loss or fewer (the rest of the field looks to be Decorah, Western Dubuque, and Harlan at 7-2, then Norwalk, Carroll, and Spencer all at 6-3). Given the restrictions of RPI seeding, who gets home field, and geography, Xavier’s first-round opponent could very well be ...

Pella. Yep, a rematch of last year’s championship game is certainly a possibility for the first round, and considering Pella’s only loss came by one point in overtime to Oskaloosa, that’s a dangerous foe to start the playoffs with. But we will see. Pairings should be out in the early morning hours Saturday.

EDIT ABOUT RECORDS: For some reason, the list of Xavier records I have is a little wonky ... it showed Ryan Persick with the regular season records of 9 field goals and 49 extra points, but it also showed his regular season kicking-points record as 61. When that total of kicks above is 76. So I must have messed up in filling out my record sheet sometime ...

Anyway - Conrad's 9 field goals through 8 games do appear to set a new Xavier regular season record (it looks like the previous regular season record was 6, not 9). Also, his 72 kicking points sets a new record (61 was indeed the previous mark, as Persick had just 4 regular season field goals in 2012). Persick is the only Xavier kicker to make more than 9 field goals in any season, including playoffs - he had 10 in 2012 and 12 in 2013. Conrad is certainly within striking range, particularly if the Saints go well into the playoffs. Conrad's 45 extra points are 4 behind Persick's regular season record of 49, with one game yet to go.

Career-wise Conrad has 153 kicking points; Persick's outstanding years in 2012-13 (plus one field goal in 2011) gives him a total of 189, so he's 36 points behind with a potential five games left to play. Conrad also has five field goals of 40 yards or more, including a 47-yarder last year and 45- and 48-yarders this season.

How Things Stand At The Final Week

Six of the nine districts in Class 3A are settled after the games of Week 8; only D-3, D-4, and D-5 still have question marks about who is going to be the champion. That also means that, in general, we have a good idea about who is going to be in the playoff field. What we don't know, however, is exactly how the state is going to bracket things.

Let's start with what we know. The district champions and automatic playoff qualifiers are:

Sergeant Bluff-Luton, D-1 (Sioux City Heelan can tie them with a win over Spencer and an SBL loss to Storm Lake, but SBL has the head-to-head tiebreaker)

Carroll, D-2 (Boone could tie with a win over Webster City and a Carroll loss to Dallas Center-Grimes, but Carroll has the head-to-head tiebreaker)

Solon, D-6 (the winner of Washington-Mount Pleasant could tie if Solon loses to Fairfield, but Solon has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both of them)

Oskaloosa, D-7 (Pella could tie with a win over Grinnell and an Oskaloosa loss to South Tama, but Oskaloosa holds the head-to-head tiebreaker)

Norwalk, D-8

Lewis Central, D-9 (Harlan could tie with a win over Winterset and a Lewis Central loss to ADM, but Lewis Central has the head-to-head tiebreaker)

So what about the other districts? They have exactly the same scenarios:

In D-3, Decorah plays Independence on Friday; a Decorah win gives them the title. Should Independence win, along with a Waverly-Shell Rock victory over Charles City, there would be a three-way tie for the championship; Waverly-Shell Rock would be named the champion due to RPI, and Decorah and Independence would both be playoff qualifiers. If both Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock lose, Independence would be the district champion.

In D-4, a Xavier win over Marion gives the Saints the district crown. If Marion wins, along with a Western Dubuque win over Maquoketa, there would be a three-way tie. Xavier would be the champion with the best RPI, and Western Dubuque and Marion would both be in the playoffs. Losses by both Xavier and Western Dubuque would give the district title to Marion.

In D-5, a North Scott victory over Davenport Assumption means North Scott wins the district. An Assumption win, along with a Clear Creek-Amana win over Central DeWitt, sets up a three-way tie, with CCA probably taking the championship with their RPI. Assumption and North Scott would also be in the playoffs. Losses by both North Scott and CCA would give Assumption the championship.

So for playoff qualifiers, we know we have:

• Sergeant Bluff-Luton
• Carroll
• Solon
• Oskaloosa
• Norwalk
• Lewis Central

The other likely district champions are:

• Decorah
• Xavier
• North Scott

And to fill the rest of the field by RPI, it would look like this (going with my projections of Week 9 results):

• Sioux City Heelan (.6716)
• Waverly-Shell Rock (.6492)
• Clear Creek-Amana (.6461)
• Harlan (.6438)
• Western Dubuque (.6299)
• Pella (.6282)
• Spencer (.5894)

There still could be a few wrinkles, as you can see by the potential scenarios in D-3, D-4, and D-5. Should all three of those districts end in 3-way ties, meaning Independence, Marion, and Davenport Assumption join the playoff party, that would mean only Heelan (with a win over Spencer) or Harlan (should Heelan lose and Harlan defeats Winterset) would make the field as at-larges ... leaving Pella and Spencer out.

But it's probably going to look something like the 16 qualifiers you see above. What could be a likely playoff bracket? District champions host the first-round games, with the exception of the one with the worst RPI (that would be Carroll, by far). The state has said they want to use RPI to seed as much as they can, with geography only being a last resort. My guess is that means the priority would be to protect the top 4 RPI teams so they don't meet before the semifinals in the Dome, and then try to not put two high RPI squads together in the first round. With my projections showing the top 4 RPIs as SBL, Xavier, Lewis Central, and North Scott, here's a possible playoff bracket that might do the trick:

Carroll at Sergeant Bluff-Luton

Sioux City Heelan at Norwalk

----

Spencer at Lewis Central

Harlan at Oskaloosa

----

----

Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier

Western Dubuque at Decorah

----

Pella at North Scott

Clear Creek-Amana at Solon

A Look At The Playoff Situation

All righty, I usually like to start prognosticating playoff possibilities with about three weeks to go in the season. Back in the day, when there were 7 district games and 4 of them were in the books, it didn't take advanced calculus to figure out who might be eliminated from contention and who had an easy path to a district title.

Well, the state couldn't let that be. With only 5 district games now, trying to forecast the possibilities with 60 percent of your district games left was dang near impossible, at least for somebody without access to a NASA supercomputer. So, I waited another week, and with two games left in the season, the district possibilities are starting to come into focus.

Now, what I'm looking at here is district titles. At-large playoff teams are going to be chosen by RPI statewide, and while we're starting to narrow down the ranges of RPIs, there's still going to be some significant changes over the final two weeks. I may have a more definite prediction of the entire playoff field after Week 8, so we'll see.

I make no guarantees that I've found every scenario or possibility. I kind of raced through this, but I think I've got all the high points. I'll welcome corrections or comments. For now, how the districts break down:


DISTRICT 1

Sergeant Bluff-Luton wins the district with a win.

Either Heelan or Spencer can with the district with two wins if Sergeant Bluff-Luton loses twice.

Storm Lake will be eliminated with a loss to Heelan.

LeMars is eliminated.

There is a wild scenario which could result in a five-way tie: Storm Lake defeats Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Heelan; Denison-Schleswig wins over Sergeant Bluff-Luton and LeMars; Spencer loses to Heelan but defeats LeMars. That's a five-way tie at 3-2 in the district, and five playoff qualifiers from District 1 alone. Yikes.



DISTRICT 2

Carroll wins the district with a win.

Boone can win the district by winning twice if Carroll loses twice.

Humboldt can win the district by winning twice, Carroll losing twice, and Boone losing once.

The loser of Webster City/Dallas Center-Grimes is eliminated. There are some scenarios where the winner might be involved in a tie.

Perry is eliminated.



DISTRICT 3

Either Independence or Decorah wins the district with two wins.

If Independence and Decorah both win this week, Week 9's game between the two decides the district title. An Independence win this week also eliminates Waverly-Shell Rock.

If Waverly Shell Rock wins twice and Independence beats Decorah, there will be a three-way tie.

West Delaware, Charles City, and Waterloo East are all eliminated.

DISTRICT 4

No matter what happens this week, if Xavier defeats Marion in Week 9 the Saints win the district.

Marion wins the district with two victories.

Western Dubuque wins the district with two wins and two Xavier losses.

If Western Dubuque wins twice and Xavier defeats CPU and loses to Marion, there will be a three-way tie.

Center Point Urbana, Maquoketa, and Dubuque Wahlert are eliminated.



DISTRICT 5

Clear Creek-Amana wins the district with a win.

North Scott wins the district with two wins.

If North Scott beats Clear Creek-Amana and loses to Davenport Assumption, while Assumption beats Iowa City Liberty and Clear Creek-Amana defeats Central DeWitt, there will be a three-way tie.

Central DeWitt, Iowa City Liberty, and Clinton are eliminated.



DISTRICT 6

Solon wins the district with a win over Fairfield.

Mount Pleasant wins the district with two wins plus two Solon losses; they can tie with two wins and two Fairfield wins.

Washington wins the district with two wins and two Solon losses.

Fairfield needs to win twice, have Solon lose to Keokuk and Mount Pleasant lose once. They can force a three-way tie with two wins, a Solon win over Keokuk, and two Mount Pleasant wins.

If Solon loses twice there's a variety of scenarios for ties involving Washington, Mount Pleasant, and Fairfield.

Fort Madison and Keokuk are eliminated.



DISTRICT 7

Oskaloosa wins the district with a win.

If Oskaloosa loses twice, either Pella or Newton can win the district with two wins.

If Oskaloosa loses twice, Pella beats Newton but loses to Grinnell, then Oskaloosa, Pella, Grinnell and the Newton-Knoxville winner all tie. If Newton beats Pella but loses to Knoxville, then Oskaloosa, Newton, Knoxville and the Pella-Grinnell winner all tie (both assuming Grinnell defeats South Tama).

South Tama is eliminated.



DISTRICT 8

Norwalk wins the district with a win.

Bondurant-Farrar wins with two wins and two Norwalk losses.

If Norwalk loses twice, several tie scenarios are in play involving the Ballard-North Polk winner, Gilbert if they defeat Bondurant-Farrar, and Carlisle if they win twice.



DISTRICT 9

Lewis Central wins the district with a win.

Either Harlan or Winterset can win the district with two wins and two Lewis Central losses.

If Lewis Central loses twice and Glenwood beats Creston, tie scenarios come into play including Winterset, Creston, and Harlan.

If Creston beats Glenwood, Lewis Central will win all possible tiebreakers.

One Half of Lightning, Three Hours of Waiting

The matchup between two top-ten programs in Class 3A, with undefeated Xavier taking on 5-1 Western Dubuque, looked like a royal struggle for the lead in District 4. The Saints and the Bobcats had pretty much the top two offenses and defenses in the district, Xavier with an edge on the defensive side and Western Dubuque with a bit more explosive offense - in fact, the Bobcats averaged over 400 yards per game and had the second-best offense in all of Class 3A.

It all didn't live up to the hype, as Xavier scored on all four of their first-half possessions and shut out Western Dubuque 35-0, in a game delayed over three hours by lightning. The kickoff was moved up two hours, to 5 pm, in an effort to beat the oncoming weather - but the Saints provided all the lightning necessary. A ten-play drive on the first possession resulted in a touchdown pass from Quinn Schulte to a wide-open Matt Jordebrek; on Xavier's next possession it took just five plays (some big runs by Braden Stovie) until Schulte ran it in from 14 yards out; in the second quarter another long 11-play drive was capped by a 2-yard Stovie run; and that was followed by another five-play drive, including a 38-yard pass to an again wide-open Jordebrek, that was finished by Jordebrek's second TD catch of the night. It was 28-0 at halftime, and the powerful Bobcat offense had only about 50 yards of total offense.

Then came the lightning, which tormented football games across eastern Iowa on this night. The homecoming halftime festivities all went off fine, the teams came out and loosened up, Xavier received the kickoff and ran one play - and there was the lightning. The crowd and the teams were sent off to safety as the required 30-minute delay after each lightning strike was counted down. Two or three times it looked like the weather had moved through - the teams actually even came out to warm up at one point until lightning chased them back inside almost immediately - but it took over three hours before the situation was finally deemed safe enough.

Things didn't change a whole lot. Western Dubuque was able to get a little bit of offense going in the second half, and their defense had a little more success in stopping the Saints, but the Bobcats never really threatened to score while Xavier was content grinding out as much of the clock as they could. The Saints tacked on another touchdown in the fourth quarter - a 24-yard rocket from Schulte to Bryson Bastian, who spun like a top past one defender and dove into the end zone - and that fired up the continuous clock for the seventh time in seven games.

So now Xavier goes to 7-0 and 3-0 in District 4, and definitely has the advantage for the district crown. Regardless of what happens at Center Point-Urbana next week, if the Saints defeat Marion in Week 9, they'll win their fifth consecutive district title and secure a playoff spot. Western Dubuque still has a chance, should Xavier lose twice and the Bobcats win out, and there is a scenario involving a three-way tie between Xavier, Western Dubuque, and Marion that would put all three into the playoffs. But Xavier holds their own destiny in their hands, and as defending state 3A champions, I doubt they'd want it any other way.

Just Like Clockwork

While some observers of high school football thought before the season that the Dubuque Wahlert Golden Eagles might be on an upswing, the first few weeks of games made it clear that Wahlert and Maquoketa were two District 4 teams still struggling and trying to find their way. So naturally, that's the first two district opponents faced by defending state 3A champion Xavier. The Saints had handled Maquoketa 41-0 the previous week (starting with a 28-point first quarter), and this past Friday rode a 35-point second quarter to a 45-6 win over Wahlert.

The game started as several this season have ... with Xavier's opponent finding room to move the ball in the first quarter. West Delaware had done it, Maquoketa had done it, Decorah had even taken a 3-0 lead in the early going. Wahlert did it here by surprise, coming in with an offense that had averaged only 24 yards a game on the ground, but running the ball play after play on the opening drive and gaining two first downs on the ground. Coach Jim O'Connell's defense was able to clamp down, though, and that was just about all the Golden Eagles were able to do. By the time Wahlert ran 12 more plays, covering four possessions, the Saints were already up 28-0.

And again, as we've seen many times this season, it was an explosive second quarter that opened things up for Xavier. The Saints had score 21 points in the second quarter against Regina, 24 points against Decorah, 31 points against Davenport Assumption - here, with an early 7-0 lead thanks to Quinn Schulte's interception of Bryce Osterberger being turned into points, Xavier blew things open with five touchdowns in the second period. Schulte found Braden Stovie down the seam, who spun away from the Wahlert safety for a long touchdown; Schulte ran for a score; Schulte threw a beautiful 40-yard bomb to Nate Skala; Stovie ran for a TD; and then finally, after a terrible shanked punt gave Xavier the ball at the Wahlert 14 with under 20 seconds to play, Schulte fired the ball to Kyle Moeder on a slant pattern for yet another score. It was 42-0 at the half, and once again the entire second half would be played with the continuous clock.

Schulte had one of his best passing games of the year, with 196 yards and 3 TDs, while the Saints gained "only" 155 yards on the ground (but Wahlert only had 24, almost all of that on the first drive). The defense was once again salty, only giving up the shutout late in the game on a pass from Osterberger to Danny McDermott after Xavier fumbled at their 25.

That second quarter ... Xavier has scored 128 points in the second over six games, by far their biggest quarter over the season. With the exception of that 28-point outburst in the first quarter against Maquoketa and a 28-point third quarter against West Delaware, the second quarter has really been the bellwether for the Saints. A couple of other things ... Xavier has given up only 3 first-quarter points all year (to Decorah) and just 9 in the first half; and Xavier's scout team has outscored opponents in the fourth quarter by 27-19.

Now the real test comes, as Xavier faces their toughest competition in District 4 - the Western Dubuque Bobcats. The Bobcats have lost just once, a 7-6 decision to District 5 favorite North Scott, and feature the 2nd most potent offense in Class 3A. Calvin Harris has been a terrific quarterback, throwing for nearly 1200 yards, Ben Bryant leads a strong ground game, and Drake George has caught 42 (!) passes in the first six games (Schulte has completed a total of 46 passes; George has caught almost that many by himself).