Well, the state couldn't let that be. With only 5 district games now, trying to forecast the possibilities with 60 percent of your district games left was dang near impossible, at least for somebody without access to a NASA supercomputer. So, I waited another week, and with two games left in the season, the district possibilities are starting to come into focus.
Now, what I'm looking at here is district titles. At-large playoff teams are going to be chosen by RPI statewide, and while we're starting to narrow down the ranges of RPIs, there's still going to be some significant changes over the final two weeks. I may have a more definite prediction of the entire playoff field after Week 8, so we'll see.
I make no guarantees that I've found every scenario or possibility. I kind of raced through this, but I think I've got all the high points. I'll welcome corrections or comments. For now, how the districts break down:
DISTRICT 1
Sergeant Bluff-Luton wins the district with a win.
Either Heelan or Spencer can with the district with two wins if Sergeant Bluff-Luton loses twice.
Storm Lake will be eliminated with a loss to Heelan.
LeMars is eliminated.
There is a wild scenario which could result in a five-way tie: Storm Lake defeats Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Heelan; Denison-Schleswig wins over Sergeant Bluff-Luton and LeMars; Spencer loses to Heelan but defeats LeMars. That's a five-way tie at 3-2 in the district, and five playoff qualifiers from District 1 alone. Yikes.
DISTRICT 2
Carroll wins the district with a win.
Boone can win the district by winning twice if Carroll loses twice.
Humboldt can win the district by winning twice, Carroll losing twice, and Boone losing once.
The loser of Webster City/Dallas Center-Grimes is eliminated. There are some scenarios where the winner might be involved in a tie.
Perry is eliminated.
DISTRICT 3
Either Independence or Decorah wins the district with two wins.
If Independence and Decorah both win this week, Week 9's game between the two decides the district title. An Independence win this week also eliminates Waverly-Shell Rock.
If Waverly Shell Rock wins twice and Independence beats Decorah, there will be a three-way tie.
West Delaware, Charles City, and Waterloo East are all eliminated.
DISTRICT 4
No matter what happens this week, if Xavier defeats Marion in Week 9 the Saints win the district.
Marion wins the district with two victories.
Western Dubuque wins the district with two wins and two Xavier losses.
If Western Dubuque wins twice and Xavier defeats CPU and loses to Marion, there will be a three-way tie.
Center Point Urbana, Maquoketa, and Dubuque Wahlert are eliminated.
DISTRICT 5
Clear Creek-Amana wins the district with a win.
North Scott wins the district with two wins.
If North Scott beats Clear Creek-Amana and loses to Davenport Assumption, while Assumption beats Iowa City Liberty and Clear Creek-Amana defeats Central DeWitt, there will be a three-way tie.
Central DeWitt, Iowa City Liberty, and Clinton are eliminated.
DISTRICT 6
Solon wins the district with a win over Fairfield.
Mount Pleasant wins the district with two wins plus two Solon losses; they can tie with two wins and two Fairfield wins.
Washington wins the district with two wins and two Solon losses.
Fairfield needs to win twice, have Solon lose to Keokuk and Mount Pleasant lose once. They can force a three-way tie with two wins, a Solon win over Keokuk, and two Mount Pleasant wins.
If Solon loses twice there's a variety of scenarios for ties involving Washington, Mount Pleasant, and Fairfield.
Fort Madison and Keokuk are eliminated.
DISTRICT 7
Oskaloosa wins the district with a win.
If Oskaloosa loses twice, either Pella or Newton can win the district with two wins.
If Oskaloosa loses twice, Pella beats Newton but loses to Grinnell, then Oskaloosa, Pella, Grinnell and the Newton-Knoxville winner all tie. If Newton beats Pella but loses to Knoxville, then Oskaloosa, Newton, Knoxville and the Pella-Grinnell winner all tie (both assuming Grinnell defeats South Tama).
South Tama is eliminated.
DISTRICT 8
Norwalk wins the district with a win.
Bondurant-Farrar wins with two wins and two Norwalk losses.
If Norwalk loses twice, several tie scenarios are in play involving the Ballard-North Polk winner, Gilbert if they defeat Bondurant-Farrar, and Carlisle if they win twice.
DISTRICT 9
Lewis Central wins the district with a win.
Either Harlan or Winterset can win the district with two wins and two Lewis Central losses.
If Lewis Central loses twice and Glenwood beats Creston, tie scenarios come into play including Winterset, Creston, and Harlan.
If Creston beats Glenwood, Lewis Central will win all possible tiebreakers.
No matter what happens this week, if Xavier defeats Marion in Week 9 the Saints win the district.
Marion wins the district with two victories.
Western Dubuque wins the district with two wins and two Xavier losses.
If Western Dubuque wins twice and Xavier defeats CPU and loses to Marion, there will be a three-way tie.
Center Point Urbana, Maquoketa, and Dubuque Wahlert are eliminated.
DISTRICT 5
Clear Creek-Amana wins the district with a win.
North Scott wins the district with two wins.
If North Scott beats Clear Creek-Amana and loses to Davenport Assumption, while Assumption beats Iowa City Liberty and Clear Creek-Amana defeats Central DeWitt, there will be a three-way tie.
Central DeWitt, Iowa City Liberty, and Clinton are eliminated.
DISTRICT 6
Solon wins the district with a win over Fairfield.
Mount Pleasant wins the district with two wins plus two Solon losses; they can tie with two wins and two Fairfield wins.
Washington wins the district with two wins and two Solon losses.
Fairfield needs to win twice, have Solon lose to Keokuk and Mount Pleasant lose once. They can force a three-way tie with two wins, a Solon win over Keokuk, and two Mount Pleasant wins.
If Solon loses twice there's a variety of scenarios for ties involving Washington, Mount Pleasant, and Fairfield.
Fort Madison and Keokuk are eliminated.
DISTRICT 7
Oskaloosa wins the district with a win.
If Oskaloosa loses twice, either Pella or Newton can win the district with two wins.
If Oskaloosa loses twice, Pella beats Newton but loses to Grinnell, then Oskaloosa, Pella, Grinnell and the Newton-Knoxville winner all tie. If Newton beats Pella but loses to Knoxville, then Oskaloosa, Newton, Knoxville and the Pella-Grinnell winner all tie (both assuming Grinnell defeats South Tama).
South Tama is eliminated.
DISTRICT 8
Norwalk wins the district with a win.
Bondurant-Farrar wins with two wins and two Norwalk losses.
If Norwalk loses twice, several tie scenarios are in play involving the Ballard-North Polk winner, Gilbert if they defeat Bondurant-Farrar, and Carlisle if they win twice.
DISTRICT 9
Lewis Central wins the district with a win.
Either Harlan or Winterset can win the district with two wins and two Lewis Central losses.
If Lewis Central loses twice and Glenwood beats Creston, tie scenarios come into play including Winterset, Creston, and Harlan.
If Creston beats Glenwood, Lewis Central will win all possible tiebreakers.
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