The second-round playoff game outcome was certainly unexpected, but this was no fluke. The Decorah Vikings used their oversized offensive line and a lot of sorcery in the backfield to run over, through and past the Xavier Saints in their 30-21 upset victory. Decorah keeps on going after a 4-5 regular season finish, having now knocked off 8-1 Independence and 9-0 Xavier.
After last Wednesday's struggle with a tough, hard-nosed Waverly-Shell Rock team, you might expect Xavier to come out prepared for another battle. Instead, the Saints fumbled (and recovered) the opening kickoff, then fumbled (and lost) the ball on their first play. Decorah recovered in Saints territory and drove 29 yards in six plays to take a quick 7-0 lead. The Saints went rhree and out on the next possession, and the Vikings put together a 14-play drive capped by a 28-yard field goal to take a 10-0 first quarter lead.
The mention of driving is crucial. The Saints defense, which had been so good throughout the year, simply couldn't get the Vikings off the field. Decorah converted on 5 out of 8 third down plays in the first half, and on one of the three they didn't get, they converted on 4th down. So Xavier had 8 chances to stop drives, and could only do it twice.
The second quarter, though, did go Xavier's way. After finally forcing a three and out and getting great field position at the Decorah 45, Bryce Schulte evaded a pass rush, doubled back across the field, and threw a strike to a diving Blake Whitten right at the pylon to make it 10-7. Sean Murphy then intercepted Cole Steffen on Decorah's next possession, and Maliki Wilson led a nice Xavier drive down to the 9. There Schulte faked the quick throw/wide receiver screen (which the Saints have run a lot in recent games), then ran straight upfield on the quarterback draw for the score. Xavier took the lead 14-10.
But Decorah answered. On 2nd and 10 on their own 49, Steffen gave to Zach Lea on a quick fullback trap. It was the same type of play that worked well for Xavier this year, especially against Regina. It worked against the Saints this time, as Lea found no defenders on the left side of the field once he got past the line of scrimmage and ran 51 yards to put the Vikings back up 17-14. Xavier got another interception late with a shot to get back in the end zone, but a long Schulte throw was incomplete as the clock expired.
The third quarter was a struggle. Both teams traded possessions, unable to get much positive yardage going until Xavier took over at their 36. The Saints picked up a couple of first downs, then Wilson was stopped for a 1-yard gain on 3rd and 5 at the Decorah 28. Dallas Klein came in to try a 41-yard field goal on the first play of the final period - he had nailed a 40-yarder against Marion at the end of the first half - but while he had the distance here, the kick was just wide right.
Decorah went to the air. Steffen connected with Shawn Sindelar on a wide-open throw to the middle of the field, and Sindelar went for 40 yards. On the next play, Steffen found Garrett Wise sneaking out of the backfield down the right sideline, and he took it in from 36 yards out. Decorah was back up by 10, 24-14.
Now the Saints came back. Schulte found Whitten on two big first-down conversions to get to the 5, then Erik Rodriguez pounded the ball in from the 4. The lead was now just 24-21, with still over 8 minutes to play. Xavier had been in worse positions before (Solon, Regina) and had gotten big turnovers or defensive stops late as well (Assumption, Waverly-Shell Rock). Could the defense step up here again?
Decorah once again had the answer. The Vikings went on a 12-play, 73-yard drive, converting on a 4th and 4 to stay alive, and finished it with a 7-yard Steffen run. The extra point was blocked, but it was still a two-possession game at 30-21 with under 4 minutes left.
Xavier started with a reverse, then Schulte went to the air, moving the ball downfield, picking up four first downs and driving to the 21. A short pass to Wilson got 5, then two iincompletions (including a near-catch by Nick Stark, who had to turn around and leap for what might have been a touchdown if the pass was just a touch closer). Klein came out to try the 33-yard field goal to cut the lead to 6 - but Marshall Johnson came in hard from the left side and blocked the kick.
Xavier still had a couple of time outs with a chance to force a punt, but that Decorah offense just kept pushing. Wise's 5-yard carry on 3rd and 4 sealed the game.
An entertaining, competitive game, to be sure - but hardly anybody expected this outcome. Decorah had been outscored and outgained on the year, giving up over 300 yards per game. The Vikings had lost their first three (including to a couple of 2A programs), then won four in a row, then lost their final two regular-season matchups, including a 28-7 loss to a, frankly, bad Charles City team. They had no business winning their first round matchup against an Independence squad that had already beat them once, and had only lost a close game to powerhouse West Delaware. They certainly had no business, on paper, coming down to Saints Field and controlling the line of scrimmage and handing Xavier their first loss with a nine-point win.
But here we are. Decorah moves on, facing a rematch with that strong West Delaware team. Xavier's season ends, at Saints Field for the first time since 2010 (they dropped a first-round game to Kennedy that year, in what is still one of the oddest, most dumbfounding games I've seen Xavier play, losing a fumble late that allowed Kennedy to drive for the winning score). Since then their seasons have ended at Pleasant Valley in 2011, and then in the Dome the past three years. Alas, there will be no Dome trip for the Saints in 2015.
A lot to look forward to, though. Schulte will be back, with 20 TD passes this year and 34 for his career, to go with nearly 2700 passing yards. Wilson will also return after amassing 1200+ rushing yards and 14 total touchdowns. Three-fifths of the offensive line is back, and while they will need to replace most of the defense, that's been the case for the past three seasons. Dallas Klein will no longer be the kicker (a perfect 42 for 42 on extra points this year, and 14 field goals for his career) but Ryan Jasper did a nice job as punter as a junior. There's plenty to be excited about for 2016.
Tuesday, November 3, 2015
Thursday, October 29, 2015
Survive And Advance
It certainly wasn't easy. In fact, it was darned difficult. But the Xavier Saints managed to stay undefeated and advance to the second round of the state 3A football playoffs with a hard-fought 14-7 win over Waverly-Shell Rock at cold, wet, windy Saints Field.
And so the playoff grind rolls on. Iowa has a rigorous or insane football playoff schedule, depending on who you ask. Winning teams end up playing four games in two weeks - the final regular season game on a Friday, the first round on the following Wednesday, the second round on the next Monday, and finally, just four days later, the quarterfinal round on that Friday. Four games, 15 days. For a violent, physical sport like football, the injuries really start to mount up under this regimen.
As far as the first round, Waverly-Shell Rock was going to be a tough first round opponent for some district champion somewhere - it just ended up being Xavier. I thought the GoHawks would probably get send to Webster City, with Xavier getting Fairfield, but the district finish situation in southwestern Iowa didn't go the way I thought and the state travel limitations kind of forced this matchup. Waverly-Shell Rock beat two 4A teams to start the season, then lost only to the three teams that finished above them in District 3. So for a fourth-place team, they were pretty good.
They showed that to the Saints, for sure. A bitter wind from the northwest swept across the field during the entire game, turning the football into a wet, hard rock that became almost impossible to catch with cold, stiff hands. The number of dropped passes had to be close to double digits. The usually reliable Xavier passing attack was limited to 24 yards on the night; not only by the weather, mind you, but by a top-notch Waverly-Shell Rock secondary that played tight coverage on the Saints receivers.
Xavier's defense was no slouch, either, holding the GoHawks to only one first down in the entire first half (that coming on the third play of the game). The Saints struggled as well, finally moving the ball some as the second quarter arrived. Bryce Schulte ran an option play - the same play that worked so well against Regina - and kept it over the right side. Then he kept running. And running. And shifting his hips, and cutting to the far side, and cutting back to the middle of the field. Schulte ended up carrying the ball 65 yards downfield (and probably 85 yards total zig-zag distance) for the game's opening touchdown.
Xavier held Waverly-Shell Rock, who then punted and pinned the Saints back at the 3 yard line. Going into the stiff wind, Xavier answered the challenge. Erik Rodriguez had a couple of big runs during an 11-play drive that covered the entire 97 yards. Sean Murphy finished it off with a 14-yard TD run, and the Saints led 14-0 at the half.
Things continued to go Xavier's way to start the third quarter. After being forced to punt, the GoHawk receiver muffed the ball at the 15 and the Saints recovered. Penalties (again, penalties! Thirteen of them on the night) kept Xavier from advancing much ... and then the GoHawks blocked Dallas Klein's field goal attempt.
That seemed to wake up Waverly-Shell Rock. Two possessions later, starting at their own 17, the GoHawks put together one of the most clutch drives you'll ever see. They converted on 4th and short. They converted on 4th and 15 with a 16-yard pass play. They drove inside the 10, then had a touchdown play called back by a penalty. They faced a 4th and goal from the 21 - and converted when Tanner Krueger lofted a fade pass to Cole Havlovic along the right side of the end zone. The drive took 17 plays and used up the end of the third quarter and about half of the fourth, and the GoHawks were back in it at 14-7.
With the help of (yet another) penalty, the energized Waverly-Shell Rock defense held Xavier to three and out. Back came the offense, moving back down the field, picking up four first downs on the way. Inside the 15 yard line, down by 7, threatening to tie or take the lead, looking to be the rare fourth seed that can knock off a district champion in the first round.
The Xavier defense stood up when they had to. First down, Jamiir Moore was taken down for a loss of 3. Second down, Krueger's pass was incomplete. Third down, another incompletion. Fourth down and 13, ball at the Xavier 14, about a minute and half left. Waverly-Shell Rock called their final timeout. Xavier's defensive coordinator Jim O'Connell dialed up a blitz. Krueger dropped back to throw, and linebacker Bryce Charipar came racing in untouched to sack the GoHawk quarterback back at the 23. That finally sealed the game for Xavier, keeping their record perfect at 9-0 while Waverly-Shell Rock ended at 6-4.
Xavier had to fight every inch to pull this one out, but in a weird night in Iowa, it wasn't the strangest first-round outcome. Sioux City Heelan, for example, last year's state runner-up, dropped their game to Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley. Ballard held on over a weak Algona team, winning by just a point. Harlan, winner of District 8, ended up losing to Creston, the fourth-place team in District 8, by 23 points. The 7-2 Washington Demons dropped a 17-14 decision to 5-5 Solon in overtime. When first round matchups usually aren't that competitive (twelve of the 16 winners in 4A scored over 40 points, and five were over 50), a lot of close games highlighted 3A. Xavier was fortunate to escape the upset.
And the quick rounds continue. It's just Monday for the next game, again vs a District 3 opponent, this time the Decorah Vikings. Decorah has a proud program, with some 15 appearances in the playoffs, five times in the title game and a state championship in 2012. The Vikings actually missed the playoffs last year, for the first time in a while, but returned this year and upset an 8-1 Independence team 14-0 to move on. Decorah has a tremendous rushing attack (over 2000 yards), but are frustrating inconsistent to categorize. They've rolled over some teams, and been rolled over by others. They've passed for 144 yards in a game, and they've averaged 47 yards passing in six others. They've given up rushing totals of 389 and 337 yards, and they've held teams to 57 and 90 yards on the ground. They beat this same tough Waverly-Shell Rock team by 3, and they lost to a rather woeful Charles City squad by three touchdowns. They're just weird.
And so the playoff grind rolls on. Iowa has a rigorous or insane football playoff schedule, depending on who you ask. Winning teams end up playing four games in two weeks - the final regular season game on a Friday, the first round on the following Wednesday, the second round on the next Monday, and finally, just four days later, the quarterfinal round on that Friday. Four games, 15 days. For a violent, physical sport like football, the injuries really start to mount up under this regimen.
As far as the first round, Waverly-Shell Rock was going to be a tough first round opponent for some district champion somewhere - it just ended up being Xavier. I thought the GoHawks would probably get send to Webster City, with Xavier getting Fairfield, but the district finish situation in southwestern Iowa didn't go the way I thought and the state travel limitations kind of forced this matchup. Waverly-Shell Rock beat two 4A teams to start the season, then lost only to the three teams that finished above them in District 3. So for a fourth-place team, they were pretty good.
They showed that to the Saints, for sure. A bitter wind from the northwest swept across the field during the entire game, turning the football into a wet, hard rock that became almost impossible to catch with cold, stiff hands. The number of dropped passes had to be close to double digits. The usually reliable Xavier passing attack was limited to 24 yards on the night; not only by the weather, mind you, but by a top-notch Waverly-Shell Rock secondary that played tight coverage on the Saints receivers.
Xavier's defense was no slouch, either, holding the GoHawks to only one first down in the entire first half (that coming on the third play of the game). The Saints struggled as well, finally moving the ball some as the second quarter arrived. Bryce Schulte ran an option play - the same play that worked so well against Regina - and kept it over the right side. Then he kept running. And running. And shifting his hips, and cutting to the far side, and cutting back to the middle of the field. Schulte ended up carrying the ball 65 yards downfield (and probably 85 yards total zig-zag distance) for the game's opening touchdown.
Xavier held Waverly-Shell Rock, who then punted and pinned the Saints back at the 3 yard line. Going into the stiff wind, Xavier answered the challenge. Erik Rodriguez had a couple of big runs during an 11-play drive that covered the entire 97 yards. Sean Murphy finished it off with a 14-yard TD run, and the Saints led 14-0 at the half.
Things continued to go Xavier's way to start the third quarter. After being forced to punt, the GoHawk receiver muffed the ball at the 15 and the Saints recovered. Penalties (again, penalties! Thirteen of them on the night) kept Xavier from advancing much ... and then the GoHawks blocked Dallas Klein's field goal attempt.
That seemed to wake up Waverly-Shell Rock. Two possessions later, starting at their own 17, the GoHawks put together one of the most clutch drives you'll ever see. They converted on 4th and short. They converted on 4th and 15 with a 16-yard pass play. They drove inside the 10, then had a touchdown play called back by a penalty. They faced a 4th and goal from the 21 - and converted when Tanner Krueger lofted a fade pass to Cole Havlovic along the right side of the end zone. The drive took 17 plays and used up the end of the third quarter and about half of the fourth, and the GoHawks were back in it at 14-7.
With the help of (yet another) penalty, the energized Waverly-Shell Rock defense held Xavier to three and out. Back came the offense, moving back down the field, picking up four first downs on the way. Inside the 15 yard line, down by 7, threatening to tie or take the lead, looking to be the rare fourth seed that can knock off a district champion in the first round.
The Xavier defense stood up when they had to. First down, Jamiir Moore was taken down for a loss of 3. Second down, Krueger's pass was incomplete. Third down, another incompletion. Fourth down and 13, ball at the Xavier 14, about a minute and half left. Waverly-Shell Rock called their final timeout. Xavier's defensive coordinator Jim O'Connell dialed up a blitz. Krueger dropped back to throw, and linebacker Bryce Charipar came racing in untouched to sack the GoHawk quarterback back at the 23. That finally sealed the game for Xavier, keeping their record perfect at 9-0 while Waverly-Shell Rock ended at 6-4.
Xavier had to fight every inch to pull this one out, but in a weird night in Iowa, it wasn't the strangest first-round outcome. Sioux City Heelan, for example, last year's state runner-up, dropped their game to Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley. Ballard held on over a weak Algona team, winning by just a point. Harlan, winner of District 8, ended up losing to Creston, the fourth-place team in District 8, by 23 points. The 7-2 Washington Demons dropped a 17-14 decision to 5-5 Solon in overtime. When first round matchups usually aren't that competitive (twelve of the 16 winners in 4A scored over 40 points, and five were over 50), a lot of close games highlighted 3A. Xavier was fortunate to escape the upset.
And the quick rounds continue. It's just Monday for the next game, again vs a District 3 opponent, this time the Decorah Vikings. Decorah has a proud program, with some 15 appearances in the playoffs, five times in the title game and a state championship in 2012. The Vikings actually missed the playoffs last year, for the first time in a while, but returned this year and upset an 8-1 Independence team 14-0 to move on. Decorah has a tremendous rushing attack (over 2000 yards), but are frustrating inconsistent to categorize. They've rolled over some teams, and been rolled over by others. They've passed for 144 yards in a game, and they've averaged 47 yards passing in six others. They've given up rushing totals of 389 and 337 yards, and they've held teams to 57 and 90 yards on the ground. They beat this same tough Waverly-Shell Rock team by 3, and they lost to a rather woeful Charles City squad by three touchdowns. They're just weird.
Wednesday, October 28, 2015
Wrapping Up At 8-0
Xavier closed out their third perfect regular season last Friday with a damp, foggy 55-0 victory over an outmanned Marion squad. The Saints ended at 8-0 on the year, with the canceled opener vs. Dowling still remaining as an open spot on that record.
Marion fought hard, but with 6 or 8 injured starters on the sidelines looking on in street clothes, it was hardly a fair contest. The Saints were forced to punt on their first series, but recovered a fumble a couple of plays later and were off to the races. Bryce Schulte found Ryan Stulken and Nick Stark for touchdown passes, both of them ridiculously wide open. Maliki Wilson ran for two scores, giving him 12 rushing TDs on the year. Special teams got in on the fun, too, as Iman Juenger forced a fumble on the second-half-opening kickoff and Connor Vogl scooped up the ball and returned it for a touchdown. And then the scout team players added two second half scores, with a 4th-down pass from Spencer Dempewolf to Mike Fettkether and a TD run from Shane Scott.
Dallas Klein continued his late-season roll, with two field goals (one a 40-yarder) giving him three successful FG tries in a row (starting with his clutch 35-yarder to win the game at Regina), and seven more extra points. He's 38 for 38 on extra point kicks for the year.
This game could have been considered the ultimate trap game for Xavier. The Saints were coming off an exhausting, emotional come-from-behind win over previously undefeated Iowa City Regina a week prior, and knew they were heading for a home playoff game just five days later. The team didn't fall into that trap, however, with a solid performance all around.
And now the playoffs begin. Speculation about a possible opponent, at least in my view, was focused on the loser of the Fairfield-Clear Creek Amana game. Xavier, as a district champion, would be matched against a fourth-place team from another district. The loser of that game would finish fourth in District 5, while the way the other districts looked to finish it seemed to make sense for that first round game. Waverly-Shell Rock, the fourth-place team in District 3, was looking to be sent to D-2 champ Webster City; Creston, the fourth-place finisher in District 8, would probably go to D-7 winner Pella. Benton Community from D-6 would go to D-3 champ West Delaware, and the other central Iowa teams would be sorted amongst themselves.
Until ... the other results from Friday. Dallas Center-Grimes, which appeared to be heading for a 6-0 district championship in D-8, lost to Glenwood. This resulted in a three-way tie for the district at 5-1, and when it was all sorted out, Harlan got the crown. This meant the only possible matchup to fit the state's travel restrictions was Creston vs. Harlan, in a district rematch. That took Creston off the table for Pella, and the dominoes resulted in Fairfield being sent to Pella ... and now the only logical opponent for Xavier was Waverly-Shell Rock.
The Go Hawks finished fourth, true - but they still were 6-3 on the year. Their only three losses were to the teams that finished above them in District 3; in addition to a 22-point loss to unbeaten West Delaware, W-SR lost to Independence by just 7 points and Decorah by only 3. The Go Hawks also beat two 4A teams this year in Mason City and Waterloo West. They rode their defense mostly, giving up only 13 points and about 70 yards passing per game - take out the West Delaware loss and those numbers drop to 9 points and 58 yards passing. They have three backs with over 200 yards rushing, and quarterback Tanner Krueger has thrown for over 1100 yards.
Not to mention, field conditions are going to be a big factor tonight. Cedar Rapids has received over an inch and a half of rain over the past 36 hours - luckily, Saints Field hasn't been used for at least a week, so it's not torn up. While it drains well (it does have that crown, you know) that much rain is going to mean muddy, slippery conditions. Then add the wind - winds of around 30 miles an hour are expected this evening. Couple a wet, slick ball with high winds, and the kicking/passing games are going to be affected.
Just looking at the numbers and the overall performance this year, you have to expect Xavier should win and move on to the second round. You can't forget the possibility of an upset, though - Kennedy managed to knock off favored Xavier at Saints Field in the first round in 2010, I believe it was, when field conditions played a similar role. The Saints have to hope their size and confidence will add to the talent they display to overcome any drawbacks during the evening.
Up next; Playoff results and musings about the upcoming rounds.
Marion fought hard, but with 6 or 8 injured starters on the sidelines looking on in street clothes, it was hardly a fair contest. The Saints were forced to punt on their first series, but recovered a fumble a couple of plays later and were off to the races. Bryce Schulte found Ryan Stulken and Nick Stark for touchdown passes, both of them ridiculously wide open. Maliki Wilson ran for two scores, giving him 12 rushing TDs on the year. Special teams got in on the fun, too, as Iman Juenger forced a fumble on the second-half-opening kickoff and Connor Vogl scooped up the ball and returned it for a touchdown. And then the scout team players added two second half scores, with a 4th-down pass from Spencer Dempewolf to Mike Fettkether and a TD run from Shane Scott.
Dallas Klein continued his late-season roll, with two field goals (one a 40-yarder) giving him three successful FG tries in a row (starting with his clutch 35-yarder to win the game at Regina), and seven more extra points. He's 38 for 38 on extra point kicks for the year.
This game could have been considered the ultimate trap game for Xavier. The Saints were coming off an exhausting, emotional come-from-behind win over previously undefeated Iowa City Regina a week prior, and knew they were heading for a home playoff game just five days later. The team didn't fall into that trap, however, with a solid performance all around.
And now the playoffs begin. Speculation about a possible opponent, at least in my view, was focused on the loser of the Fairfield-Clear Creek Amana game. Xavier, as a district champion, would be matched against a fourth-place team from another district. The loser of that game would finish fourth in District 5, while the way the other districts looked to finish it seemed to make sense for that first round game. Waverly-Shell Rock, the fourth-place team in District 3, was looking to be sent to D-2 champ Webster City; Creston, the fourth-place finisher in District 8, would probably go to D-7 winner Pella. Benton Community from D-6 would go to D-3 champ West Delaware, and the other central Iowa teams would be sorted amongst themselves.
Until ... the other results from Friday. Dallas Center-Grimes, which appeared to be heading for a 6-0 district championship in D-8, lost to Glenwood. This resulted in a three-way tie for the district at 5-1, and when it was all sorted out, Harlan got the crown. This meant the only possible matchup to fit the state's travel restrictions was Creston vs. Harlan, in a district rematch. That took Creston off the table for Pella, and the dominoes resulted in Fairfield being sent to Pella ... and now the only logical opponent for Xavier was Waverly-Shell Rock.
The Go Hawks finished fourth, true - but they still were 6-3 on the year. Their only three losses were to the teams that finished above them in District 3; in addition to a 22-point loss to unbeaten West Delaware, W-SR lost to Independence by just 7 points and Decorah by only 3. The Go Hawks also beat two 4A teams this year in Mason City and Waterloo West. They rode their defense mostly, giving up only 13 points and about 70 yards passing per game - take out the West Delaware loss and those numbers drop to 9 points and 58 yards passing. They have three backs with over 200 yards rushing, and quarterback Tanner Krueger has thrown for over 1100 yards.
Not to mention, field conditions are going to be a big factor tonight. Cedar Rapids has received over an inch and a half of rain over the past 36 hours - luckily, Saints Field hasn't been used for at least a week, so it's not torn up. While it drains well (it does have that crown, you know) that much rain is going to mean muddy, slippery conditions. Then add the wind - winds of around 30 miles an hour are expected this evening. Couple a wet, slick ball with high winds, and the kicking/passing games are going to be affected.
Just looking at the numbers and the overall performance this year, you have to expect Xavier should win and move on to the second round. You can't forget the possibility of an upset, though - Kennedy managed to knock off favored Xavier at Saints Field in the first round in 2010, I believe it was, when field conditions played a similar role. The Saints have to hope their size and confidence will add to the talent they display to overcome any drawbacks during the evening.
Up next; Playoff results and musings about the upcoming rounds.
Thursday, October 22, 2015
One Final Thought About The Playoffs
The home stretch is here. Washington plays at Davenport Assumption tonight (Thursday) in a game that will decide the champion of District 5. Plenty of games tomorrow will help sort out the top four in districts across the state, and the eggheads in Boone will work late into the night setting up the first round of playoffs set to go next Wednesday.
So, of course, I decided to waste a lot of time and brainpower on thinking through how things might play out. If I was really good at this, I'd live in Vegas and wear about a dozen rings and a shirt open to my belt and hang out with showgirls and Sinatra impersonators. Yeah, I'd be a successful gambler, is what I'm saying.
Anyhoo - here's the dillyo for Class 3A leading into the final week of the season:
THE QUALIFIERS
Teams listed in bold are locked into the listed finish in their district. Teams in italics need help to get in. We actually already know 29 of the 32 playoff teams; there are seven teams fighting over the last three spots.
DISTRICT 1
DISTRICT 2
So, of course, I decided to waste a lot of time and brainpower on thinking through how things might play out. If I was really good at this, I'd live in Vegas and wear about a dozen rings and a shirt open to my belt and hang out with showgirls and Sinatra impersonators. Yeah, I'd be a successful gambler, is what I'm saying.
Anyhoo - here's the dillyo for Class 3A leading into the final week of the season:
THE QUALIFIERS
Teams listed in bold are locked into the listed finish in their district. Teams in italics need help to get in. We actually already know 29 of the 32 playoff teams; there are seven teams fighting over the last three spots.
DISTRICT 1
- Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Sioux City Heelan
- Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley or Spencer
- Spencer or Boyden-Hull/Rock Valley
Spencer has a shot to get third, if they beat Sergeant Bluff-Luton and BHRV loses to Denison-Schleswig. Probably not gonna happen.
DISTRICT 2
- Webster City
- Carroll
- Algona, Greene County, Humboldt or Boone
- Humboldt, Greene County, Boone, or Algona
A lot could happen for the final two spots here. Humboldt will most likely beat a woeful Perry team this week, while Greene County probably loses to Carroll and Boone almost certainly loses to Webster City. If that happens, Algona takes third and Humboldt fourth.
DISTRICT 3
- West Delaware
- Independence
- Decorah
- Waverly-Shell Rock
DISTRICT 4
- Xavier
- Maquoketa
- Solon or Dubuque Wahlert
- Dubuque Wahlert or Solon
Friday's Solon at Wahlert game is for third place in the district.
DISTRICT 5
- Davenport Assumption or Washington
- Washington or Davenport Assumption
- Clear Creek-Amana or Fairfield
- Fairfield or Clear Creek-Amana
Tonight's Washington-Assumption game is for first place, while tomorrow's Fairfield-CCA game is for third.
DISTRICT 6
- Gilbert
- Ballard
- Bondurant-Farrar
- Benton Community
DISTRICT 7
- Pella
- Norwalk
- Carlisle or Oskaloosa
- Chariton or Knoxville or Carlisle
Likely wins by Carlisle, Norwalk and Pella would result in Carlisle taking third and Chariton fourth. Carlisle is in regardless. An upset by Oskaloosa over Carlisle puts Osky in play for 3rd; a Knoxville upset of Norwalk gives them a chance at 4th.
DISTRICT 8
- Dallas Center-Grimes or Harlan or Glenwood
- Harlan or Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes
- Glenwood or Dallas Center-Grimes
- Creston
We know the qualifiers, just not the order. Friday's Dallas Center-Grimes vs Glenwood game is big; a win by DCG gives them the title and puts Harlan into second. A Glenwood win, depending on the score, could result in about any outcome, depending on point differential.
Okay, I'm assuming Assumption beats Washington tonight. I think the Knights are a really good team, and this is their year to win the district. In other games that matter, I also predict wins by BHRV, Humboldt (plus Carroll and Webster City), Solon, CCA, Carlisle (and Norwalk), and Dallas Center-Grimes.
Here's my playoff predictions for next Wednesday. Keep in mind it's 4th place finishers at district champions, 3rd place at 2nd place, with a 125-mile travel restriction. If there aren't any other opponents within 125 miles, a team may end up playing someone from their district (again).
4v1
Spencer at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Waverly-Shell Rock at Webster City
Benton Community at West Delaware
Fairfield at Xavier
Wahlert at Assumption
Humboldt at Gilbert
Creston at Pella
Chariton at Dallas Center-Grimes
3v2
BHRV at Heelan
Glenwood at Carroll
Decorah at Independence
CCA at Maquoketa
Solon at Washington
Algona at Ballard
Bondurant Farrar at Norwalk
Carlisle at Harlan
Now, if Washington beats Assumption tonight, that would mean only minor changes. Wahlert would then go to West Delaware, while Benton would travel to Washington and Solon would go to Assumption.
Should Fairfield beat CCA tomorrow, I think CCA then ends up going to Xavier. That result would shake up the 3v2 matchups, though, and I haven't felt up to digging that deep into there.
We shall see. With 29 teams already assured (and all the home teams except for District 8 set), there's not a whole lot of wiggle room with who can go where - but the state can still surprise me.
Wednesday, October 21, 2015
Well, That Was Something
Do you remember the Cardiac Kids of Xavier? The guys who needed four turnovers - two in the end zone - to hold on to a 7-point win over Davenport Assumption? The ones who came back from a two-touchdown deficit in the 4th quarter to take the lead over Solon, then sealed it with another interception inside the ten? Those guys?
Turned out they aren't gone. They just took a month off.
The Saints stormed back from a 35-7 halftime deficit to score 31 unanswered points - the final 3 on a Dallas Klein field goal as time expired - as Xavier knocked off defending 1A state champion and undefeated Iowa City Regina last Friday. This after four straight games of taking big leads by halftime and coasting to continuous-clock victories in District 4. That's partly why I didn't file a blog for the Dubuque Wahlert game two weeks ago; it was a near carbon copy of the games against Central DeWitt, Maquoketa and Western Dubuque.
(Does anybody even know what a carbon copy is any more? Is it going to just live on as a saying? If so, when will people not really know what it's supposed to mean?)
The Regals and Saints traded touchdowns on their first possessions, but after that, it was all Regina. Nick Phillips was unstoppable, dashing through the Saints for over 200 yards and 3 TDs in the first half. Phillips zipped through small cracks in the offensive line time after time, finding himself 12 yards downfield before the Saints seemed to react. Nathan Stenger was also proving extremely difficult to tackle, as he added a couple of scores on the ground himself. Meanwhile, the Saints were having trouble getting any offense going, as the Regina defense was very quick to react to Xavier's trusty counter plays, and Bryce Schulte (unlike his huge passing day against Regina last year) was misfiring on his throws.
The one bright spot, if there was any, was the fact that Stenger was having difficulty finding his receivers as well. He completed just one pass in the first half. Another event that loomed much larger about an hour after it happened was Emilio Tover's first field goal miss of the year. Tover had kicked 47 extra points and 5 field goals in the previous 7 games for Regina, only missing one extra point and with a long field goal of 39 yards. As the first half drew to a close, the Saints finally held the Regals out of the end zone (for the first time all game), forcing a field goal try from the 8 yard line. Tover, a left-footed kicker kicking from the right hash, actually missed the 25-yarder wide right. At the time, this seemed only to make the difference between 35-7 and 38-7 at the half - but those three points would be huge at the end of the game.
Xavier took the kickoff to start the second half and settled on a steady diet of Maliki Wilson. The junior running back finished the game with 33 carries (two fewer than the school record) and nearly 150 yards. While the Saints mixed in a few fullback dives and short passes, the Regina defense appeared to start bending. Xavier scored on the opening drive to make it 35-14. Mainly, observers thought, this would help the Saints' morale as they prepared for their final game in another week. Perhaps the defense could make another stand and help the morale on that side of the ball as well.
The defense did stop Regina, after one first down, and Xavier got the ball back. Schulte threw an interception on the next play, but the defense stood up again. Phillips and Stenger were being shut down. Stenger's throws, to open receivers many times, were off-target or dropped. Xavier also turned to the option play, which the Regals seemed unable to defend. The Saints scored again with about a minute left in the third quarter, and now it was just 35-21. That's only two touchdowns. Xavier has been down by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before; this is familiar ground now.
Regina continued to struggle moving the ball, and the Saints continued to roll up yards on the ground. Schulte scored on an option keeper with about six minutes left; then, after a short punt returned to the Regina 33, he scored on another. With 3:22 to play, the Saints had come all the way back and, incredibly, tied the game.
Now Marv Cook and his men knew it was time to dig deep and find that intestinal fortitude to turn this collapse into a convincing win. Regina had not lost in regulation since the 2009 playoffs. Their only loss of any kind since then was an overtime loss to an inspired Solon team at the beginning of the 2014 season. The Regals were five-time defending state champions, running roughshod over Class 1A with multiple wins over Class 3A competition (including Xavier last year). A tie game in the fourth quarter? We can handle that.
Stenger started putting together a drive. He finally connected on a couple of big pass plays, and those (along with two big 15-yard penalties against Xavier) got the ball nearing field goal range. Still a big outside that, at the Xavier 21 with right about a minute left, Stenger dropped to pass, looking to put this game away with 6 points. He looked to the right, threw down the seam -
And Xavier's Blake Whitten stepped in front of the receiver at the goal line and picked it off. Just like the big interceptions at the end of the Assumption and Solon games, the Saints' defensive backfield came through when they needed it most. Whitten raced down the far sideline, nearly breaking it all the way before being brought down at the Xavier 42.
Still, 58 yards were between the Saints and victory, and less than 60 seconds were on the board. Xavier did still have two time outs, and that was huge. Schulte found Nick Stark along the sideline to pick up 13 yards into Regina territory. As the clock stood at 10 seconds with the ball at the Regal 48, Regina looked for a pass play that would get the Saints into field goal range.
Instead, Coach Schulte called the fullback dive, a quick-popping play that had worked for decent first-down yardage throughout the game. This time it broke big, as Sean Murphy raced down the middle of the field to the Regal 18. Immediately Xavier called time out with 3.3 seconds remaining. In came the field goal unit. Mike Fettkether made the snap, Whitten set the ball on the grass, and Klein booted it right down the middle as the scoreboard read all zeroes. The 35-yard kick was Klein's longest of his career, and just the third of this season (he'd had nine last year).
The Saints had come all the way back, keeping their record perfect at 8-0 and handing Regina a stunning loss.
All of this in a non-district battle that had no impact on postseason play. Yet, a thrilling, exciting, well-played battle between two strong, well-coached programs that was fun to watch and lasted the full 48 minutes.
Speaking of postseason; both these teams are in the state high school playoffs already. Xavier actually clinched the District 4 title the week before with their win over Wahlert; Regina could still end up in a three-way tie for their district, but that would take a loss to a 1A opponent (which actually hasn't happened ever since the Regals dropped to 1A in 2012). Xavier could wrap up an undefeated season with a win at Marion this week (8-0, true, but zero losses is zero losses). They will host a first-round game at Saints Field on Wednesday, October 28. Still some things could happen this week to change qualifiers around the edges, but I think Waverly-Shell Rock is a likely first-round opponent. The Go-Hawks will finish fourth in a tough District 3, and they'll prove to be a pretty darn good fourth-place team. Another possibility, should Fairfield knock off Clear Creek-Amana this week, is the CCA Clippers. That squad is from just down the road, and would prove an intriguing opponent should they match up against Xavier in the first round.
Turned out they aren't gone. They just took a month off.
The Saints stormed back from a 35-7 halftime deficit to score 31 unanswered points - the final 3 on a Dallas Klein field goal as time expired - as Xavier knocked off defending 1A state champion and undefeated Iowa City Regina last Friday. This after four straight games of taking big leads by halftime and coasting to continuous-clock victories in District 4. That's partly why I didn't file a blog for the Dubuque Wahlert game two weeks ago; it was a near carbon copy of the games against Central DeWitt, Maquoketa and Western Dubuque.
(Does anybody even know what a carbon copy is any more? Is it going to just live on as a saying? If so, when will people not really know what it's supposed to mean?)
The Regals and Saints traded touchdowns on their first possessions, but after that, it was all Regina. Nick Phillips was unstoppable, dashing through the Saints for over 200 yards and 3 TDs in the first half. Phillips zipped through small cracks in the offensive line time after time, finding himself 12 yards downfield before the Saints seemed to react. Nathan Stenger was also proving extremely difficult to tackle, as he added a couple of scores on the ground himself. Meanwhile, the Saints were having trouble getting any offense going, as the Regina defense was very quick to react to Xavier's trusty counter plays, and Bryce Schulte (unlike his huge passing day against Regina last year) was misfiring on his throws.
The one bright spot, if there was any, was the fact that Stenger was having difficulty finding his receivers as well. He completed just one pass in the first half. Another event that loomed much larger about an hour after it happened was Emilio Tover's first field goal miss of the year. Tover had kicked 47 extra points and 5 field goals in the previous 7 games for Regina, only missing one extra point and with a long field goal of 39 yards. As the first half drew to a close, the Saints finally held the Regals out of the end zone (for the first time all game), forcing a field goal try from the 8 yard line. Tover, a left-footed kicker kicking from the right hash, actually missed the 25-yarder wide right. At the time, this seemed only to make the difference between 35-7 and 38-7 at the half - but those three points would be huge at the end of the game.
Xavier took the kickoff to start the second half and settled on a steady diet of Maliki Wilson. The junior running back finished the game with 33 carries (two fewer than the school record) and nearly 150 yards. While the Saints mixed in a few fullback dives and short passes, the Regina defense appeared to start bending. Xavier scored on the opening drive to make it 35-14. Mainly, observers thought, this would help the Saints' morale as they prepared for their final game in another week. Perhaps the defense could make another stand and help the morale on that side of the ball as well.
The defense did stop Regina, after one first down, and Xavier got the ball back. Schulte threw an interception on the next play, but the defense stood up again. Phillips and Stenger were being shut down. Stenger's throws, to open receivers many times, were off-target or dropped. Xavier also turned to the option play, which the Regals seemed unable to defend. The Saints scored again with about a minute left in the third quarter, and now it was just 35-21. That's only two touchdowns. Xavier has been down by two touchdowns in the fourth quarter before; this is familiar ground now.
Regina continued to struggle moving the ball, and the Saints continued to roll up yards on the ground. Schulte scored on an option keeper with about six minutes left; then, after a short punt returned to the Regina 33, he scored on another. With 3:22 to play, the Saints had come all the way back and, incredibly, tied the game.
Now Marv Cook and his men knew it was time to dig deep and find that intestinal fortitude to turn this collapse into a convincing win. Regina had not lost in regulation since the 2009 playoffs. Their only loss of any kind since then was an overtime loss to an inspired Solon team at the beginning of the 2014 season. The Regals were five-time defending state champions, running roughshod over Class 1A with multiple wins over Class 3A competition (including Xavier last year). A tie game in the fourth quarter? We can handle that.
Stenger started putting together a drive. He finally connected on a couple of big pass plays, and those (along with two big 15-yard penalties against Xavier) got the ball nearing field goal range. Still a big outside that, at the Xavier 21 with right about a minute left, Stenger dropped to pass, looking to put this game away with 6 points. He looked to the right, threw down the seam -
And Xavier's Blake Whitten stepped in front of the receiver at the goal line and picked it off. Just like the big interceptions at the end of the Assumption and Solon games, the Saints' defensive backfield came through when they needed it most. Whitten raced down the far sideline, nearly breaking it all the way before being brought down at the Xavier 42.
Still, 58 yards were between the Saints and victory, and less than 60 seconds were on the board. Xavier did still have two time outs, and that was huge. Schulte found Nick Stark along the sideline to pick up 13 yards into Regina territory. As the clock stood at 10 seconds with the ball at the Regal 48, Regina looked for a pass play that would get the Saints into field goal range.
Instead, Coach Schulte called the fullback dive, a quick-popping play that had worked for decent first-down yardage throughout the game. This time it broke big, as Sean Murphy raced down the middle of the field to the Regal 18. Immediately Xavier called time out with 3.3 seconds remaining. In came the field goal unit. Mike Fettkether made the snap, Whitten set the ball on the grass, and Klein booted it right down the middle as the scoreboard read all zeroes. The 35-yard kick was Klein's longest of his career, and just the third of this season (he'd had nine last year).
The Saints had come all the way back, keeping their record perfect at 8-0 and handing Regina a stunning loss.
All of this in a non-district battle that had no impact on postseason play. Yet, a thrilling, exciting, well-played battle between two strong, well-coached programs that was fun to watch and lasted the full 48 minutes.
Speaking of postseason; both these teams are in the state high school playoffs already. Xavier actually clinched the District 4 title the week before with their win over Wahlert; Regina could still end up in a three-way tie for their district, but that would take a loss to a 1A opponent (which actually hasn't happened ever since the Regals dropped to 1A in 2012). Xavier could wrap up an undefeated season with a win at Marion this week (8-0, true, but zero losses is zero losses). They will host a first-round game at Saints Field on Wednesday, October 28. Still some things could happen this week to change qualifiers around the edges, but I think Waverly-Shell Rock is a likely first-round opponent. The Go-Hawks will finish fourth in a tough District 3, and they'll prove to be a pretty darn good fourth-place team. Another possibility, should Fairfield knock off Clear Creek-Amana this week, is the CCA Clippers. That squad is from just down the road, and would prove an intriguing opponent should they match up against Xavier in the first round.
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