Sizing Up The Playoffs

It's hard to believe, but there's just two weeks left in the high school football regular season. That means we can make some pretty good guesses at who's going to be in and who's going to be out when the playoffs kick off on November 1.

A reminder of the system in Iowa, at least for Class 3A: All nine district champions are automatic qualifiers, while the next seven teams with the highest RPI are selected as at-large teams, for a playoff field of 16. If there's a tie for the title in any district, the first tiebreaker is head-to-head - if any team in the tie beat all the other teams involved, they are crowned as the champion. In any other case, the state will select the team with the best RPI as the district winner, and the other teams will go into the at-large pool.

For playoff bracketing, the state will attempt to set up as close to a truly seeded 1 through 16 bracket as possible, but there are some complications:

• Since there are 8 first-round games but 9 district champions, the district winner with the lowest RPI will have to travel in the first round.
• That means a district runner-up with a particularly high RPI might end up on the road against a district champion that's actually seeded lower.
• If it's at all possible, the first- and second-place finishers in a district won't be paired together in the first round.
• Geography is a final factor. The state will try to avoid huge travel distances in setting up the brackets.

That's about it. Here's how things look as we get ready for the last two games.

DISTRICT 1

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON can win the district this week with a win over Denison-Schleswig plus a Storm Lake loss to Sioux City Heelan. Regardless of what happens this Friday, Sergeant Bluff-Luton will also win the district if they beat Storm Lake next week.

STORM LAKE needs to win this week and next, plus a Spencer loss to either Le Mars or Heelan, to take the district outright.

SPENCER can win the district outright with two wins plus two losses by Sergeant Bluff-Luton.

There are several tie scenarios, some with three teams, some with four. Since there is no way to have a tie where one team defeated all the others, all of these would end up being decided with the highest RPI taking the district. From my rough calculations, I think Sergeant Bluff-Luton would come out on top of every tie scenario.

Heelan is mathematically eliminated; Denison-Schleswig and Le Mars are RPI eliminated.

If Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Storm Lake, and Spencer all win this week, they could end up in a tie if both Storm Lake and Spencer win in Week 9. Those same three teams would also tie if Spencer wins this week while Sergeant Bluff-Luton and Storm Lake both lose, should Storm Lake defeat Sergeant Bluff-Luton, Spencer lose to Heelan, and Le Mars defeat Denison-Schleswig in Week 9. 

There's a very unlikely three-way scenario. Sergeant Bluff-Luton loses twice, and Storm Lake loses to Heelan before defeating Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Should Spencer lose to both Le Mars and Heelan, the winner of the Le Mars vs Denison-Schleswig game would be involved in a tie with SBL and Storm Lake. 

Then we have the four-way tie scenarios:

• Sergeant Bluff-Luton has to lose to both Denison-Schleswig and Storm Lake
• Storm Lake has to lose to Heelan this week before beating Sergeant Bluff-Luton next week
• Spencer loses to either Le Mars or Heelan
• Either Le Mars wins twice (over Spencer and Denison-Schleswig) or Denison-Schleswig defeats Le Mars (in addition to Sergeant Bluff-Luton)

DISTRICT 2

This basically boils down to the winner of DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES vs CARROLL in Week 9. Either the winner of that game has zero district losses, or they each have one loss with the outcome deciding the head-to-head winner.

WEBSTER CITY has a narrow path: they have to beat Dallas Center-Grimes and Boone, then hope Carroll loses to Humboldt this week before defeating Dallas Center-Grimes in Week 9. There's no other way for Webster City to make it.

A three-way tie results if Webster City beats Dallas Center-Grimes and Boone; Carroll defeats Humboldt; and Dallas Center-Grimes wins over Carroll. That tie would be resolved by RPI, and it would almost certainly be Dallas Center-Grimes. That means a Carroll win this Friday probably eliminates Webster City completely.

Humboldt, Boone, and Perry are all eliminated.

DISTRICT 3

If INDEPENDENCE defeats Waverly-Shell Rock Friday while DECORAH loses to Waterloo East, Indee will take the district. If Decorah wins over Waterloo East, the winner of next week's Indee-Decorah game takes the title.

Even with a loss this Friday Indee can take the district outright as long as they beat Decorah next week. Waterloo East could match Indee's district record by beating Decorah and West Delaware, but Indee takes that head-to-head.

WATERLOO EAST has an outside shot at the championship; they need to beat Decorah and West Delaware, while Independence loses to both Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah.

With two losses by Independence, it's possible for a three-way, or even a five-way tie for the district title. Any of those possibilities would come down to RPI, and Independence would almost certainly come out on top.

Charles City is mathematically eliminated; Waverly-Shell Rock and West Delaware are essentially RPI eliminated. 

Here are the specific tie scenarios: In addition to two Indee losses, Decorah must lose to Waterloo East, while West Delaware has to defeat Waterloo East (otherwise either Decorah or Waterloo East would actually win the district). In this scenario, it's possible - perhaps even likely - to result in a five-way tie (given West Delaware and Waverly-Shell Rock also defeating Charles City). In all the tie scenarios, there's no clear-cut head-to-head winner, so it goes to RPI - almost certainly Independence.

DISTRICT 4

WESTERN DUBUQUE wins the district with one more victory, either this Friday over Marion or next week over Maquoketa.

If Western Dubuque loses twice, the winner of XAVIER vs CENTER POINT-URBANA wins the district with a win in Week 9 (Xavier plays Marion; CPU takes on Wahlert).

Even with two losses, Western Dubuque would win any potential three-way tie scenario, if Maquoketa loses this week to Wahlert. If Maquoketa defeats Wahlert and Western Dubuque, and the winner of Xavier vs CPU loses in Week 9, having Maquoketa involved throws that tie situation to RPI ... and Xavier would take the district in that scenario.

Marion is mathematically eliminated, while Maquoketa and Wahlert are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 5

If NORTH SCOTT defeats Clear Creek-Amana or if DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION beats Iowa City Liberty this week, Liberty is eliminated (even with a potential three-way tie, North Scott will have the best RPI).

Unless they both lose Friday, Week 9's Assumption-North Scott game will be for the district title.

IOWA CITY LIBERTY has a slim shot - they have to defeat Assumption this Friday and have North Scott lose, then have Assumption defeat North Scott next week while Liberty wins over Clinton. That puts Liberty in a tie with Assumption, and Liberty takes the head-to-head.

Clear Creek-Amana, Central DeWitt, and Clinton are all eliminated.

DISTRICT 6

SOLON wins the district with a victory, either this week over Keokuk or next Friday over Fairfield.

If Solon loses twice, WASHINGTON can take the district with wins over Fairfield and Mount Pleasant; MOUNT PLEASANT can win the championship by beating Fort Madison and Washington.

Even with two losses, Solon wins any tiebreaker with possible 3-2 district teams, except Keokuk (who would have to defeat Solon to get to 3-2). In that case, though, either Washington or Mount Pleasant would also have to be involved in the tie, which throws it to RPI, and Solon is a solid leader there.

Fairfield is mathematically eliminated; Keokuk and Fort Madison are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 7

A PELLA win over Newton plus a Grinnell loss to South Tama this week gives Pella the title.

Even with a loss this week, if Pella defeats Grinnell in Week 9, Pella wins the district.

GRINNELL can win the district with a win this week plus a win over Pella next week, as long as Oskaloosa loses to either Knoxville or South Tama.

OSKALOOSA needs two wins plus two Pella losses. That would put Oskaloosa into a tie with Grinnell, which Osky wins by head-to-head.

I believe all the potential tie scenarios would go to RPI. It appears Pella has the edge in those instances.

Pella over Newton/losing to Grinnell, along with Grinnell over South Tama and two Oskaloosa wins would be the three-way scenario. If Pella loses twice, along with a Grinnell loss to South Tama, an Oskaloosa loss, and two wins by either Newton or Knoxville, there could be a five-way tie.

South Tama is mathematically eliminated; Newton and Fort Madison are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 8

If NORWALK defeats Ballard this Friday, they win the district.

BALLARD can win the district by beating Norwalk and North Polk, plus a Carlisle loss to either North Polk or Bondurant-Farrar.

CARLISLE can take the title with two wins plus Norwalk losses to Ballard and Gilbert.

 A potential three-way tie actually looks like it might give the RPI nod to Carlisle. That requires wins by Ballard and Carlisle this Friday, plus wins by Norwalk, Ballard, and Carlisle next week.

Bondurant-Farrar and North Polk have an opportunity to reach into a tie with a 3-2 district record; that requires two losses by Norwalk plus additional losses by Ballard and Carlisle. In that event, I believe Norwalk still takes the championship by RPI.

Gilbert has been mathematically eliminated; Bondurant-Farrar and North Polk are RPI eliminated.

DISTRICT 9

GLENWOOD wins the district with a victory over Lewis Central this week. They also take the title if they lose Friday, with a win over Creston plus a Lewis Central loss to ADM next week.

HARLAN wins the district by defeating Creston and Winterset if Glenwood loses to both Lewis Central and Creston.

LEWIS CENTRAL takes the outright title with wins over Glenwood and ADM, plus a Harlan loss.

Wins by Lewis Central and Harlan this Friday, along with wins by all three district leaders in Week 9, result in a three-way tie decided by RPI. There's also several unlikely scenarios for 3-2 ties, requiring two losses by Glenwood and losses by Lewis Central and Harlan, along with possibly the winner of the Winterset/ADM game. In any of the tie situations, RPI goes to Lewis Central.

Field Position For The Win

It wasn't just field position that led to Xavier's 42-0 cruising past Dubuque Wahlert Catholic last Friday night ... but it sure helped. The Saints' first possession started at Wahlert's 36 after a poor punt. Their second started at their 28 after a good punt return by Jaxon Rexroth. Right out of the box, it was 14-0, and the Golden Eagles could do nothing against the Xavier defense.

Wahlert was able to muster only two first downs - that's right, two - and they both came in the first half. Xavier took the second-half kickoff and used 15 plays to roll 66 yards, using up almost half of the third quarter, going up 35-0 and starting the continuous clock. Wahlert's second-half offense? Nine plays, including a lost fumble. Zero first downs.

Xavier was unable to rack up big offensive numbers due to the short field, so it was nothing like the record-setting Maquoketa game. Nick Lemke did run for three TDs (4, 4, and 1 yards) and Carter Diebold continued to be perfect on extra points (26 for 26).

But it was all a table setting preliminary for this week. The District 4 title will almost certainly be decided Friday in Epworth when Xavier takes on Western Dubuque. The Bobcats have been generally ranked first in almost every 3A poll since the season began, with the Saints ranked no lower than 3rd. Stat-wise, it's almost dead even: Xavier leads D-4 in rushing with 205.3 ypg, Western Dubuque is third with 174.8. Western Dubuque leads in passing with 205.3 ypg, Xavier is third with 161.7. In total offense, they're only about 13 ypg apart (WD 380.2, Xavier 367.0).

Defensively it's similar: Xavier has the top defense in the district across the board, Western Dubuque is second. While Western Dubuque is gaining about 13 yards per game more than Xavier, Xavier is allowing about 25 yards per game fewer than the Bobcats (Xavier 165.2, WD 191.0). Xavier's average score is 35-7.6, Western Dubuque's is 35.8-6.5.

The numbers don't get any closer.

And winning the district could be a big deal. District winners get a home playoff game in round 1 (well, eight of the nine district winners, anyway), whereas at-large teams have to travel. While seeding is based on RPI - and both Xavier and Western Dubuque are currently in the top 4 of RPI in the state - that doesn't matter for home field in the first round. So, whoever loses this game will probably end up with a top 8 (at worst) RPI, yet be forced to travel to play a district winner like Independence, or North Scott, or Pella. (Probably not Solon, as they'll have a high RPI and it would be unlikely to punish that with a visit from either of these two teams in the first round.)

This is what makes October football exciting! There's definitely something to play for, and this looks like the game of the year in Class 3A in the entire state.