For the third consecutive year, the Xavier Saints made their way into the state playoff semifinals, meaning their season got to end at the UNI Dome. In fact, 7 of the previous 9 seasons had ended in the Dome (4A champions in 2006, losses to Cedar Falls in 2007 first round and 2008 quarterfinals, a loss in the 2009 semis to Iowa City High). Only first-round playoff losses in 2010 and 2011 did not finish the year on the north end of Interstate 380. The last two years, in fact, Xavier advanced past the semis into the 4A championship game. This year, though, as a new member of Class 3A, the Saints weren't so fortunate.
Instead, Xavier faced an unbeaten Pella squad that had been ranked number 1 in the state pretty much all season. The Dutch had started the year shutting out last year's runner-up team Washington 35-0, and it just went on from there. Pella had scored over 70 points in one game, and over 50 in five. They had won every game by double digits (the closest was a 17-6 win over Carlisle), led Class 3A in scoring, and had not allowed more than 14 points in any game all year. Their three top rushers (Noah Clayberg, Quinton Murphy and Nathan Henry) each had 800 yards or more coming into the semifinal, and both Clayberg and Murphy averaged over 11 yards a carry. The Dutch also featured a Division 1 talent on the line, with University of Cincinnati recruit Garret Jansen playing offensive and defensive tackle.
Meanwhile, Xavier was coming in beat up. Leading rusher Jay Kortemeyer was still out with an injury. Starting fullback and defensive team leader Nic Ekland suited up (and even got in a few plays), but with a broken leg he'd suffered 10 days earlier he wasn't able to contribute much.
While there were some parallels to earlier Xavier opponents here (Iowa City Regina, perhaps), including some wins (such as the victory over Bettendorf in last year's semis), everybody knew this was going to be a tough match. Could Xavier's defense stop this high-powered Pella attack? Could the Saints get out fast again, as they had in all three previous playoff games with 14-0 first quarter leads? Would Xavier's special teams prove to be dominant?
The answer would be no on all three counts. It was Pella that came out of the box fast, with a 27-yard Clayberg run on the first play setting the tone. Although the Dutch didn't score on that first drive, they did reach the end zone on their next two possessions, making it 14-0 Pella by the time Xavier had run six offensive plays for a total of minus 6 yards. Xavier's special teams didn't get much room to do anything, with Pella kicker Seth Johnson routinely reaching the end zone on kickoffs, and while Connor Foley continued to punt well, the Xavier punt teams gave up plenty of yards on returns.
Xavier did hold Pella to a field goal midway through the third quarter (again, total yards for Xavier at this point: minus 8), then coupled a good return on the kickoff and the Saints' first 1st down of the game to actually move into Pella territory. Bryce Schulte got sacked immediately after that, though, and Xavier would not cross the 50 again until the 4th quarter. The Saints did intercept Clayberg in the end zone on the ensuing possession, but being unable to pick up a first down, gave Pella another short field and another field goal before the half.
The third quarter wasn't much better for Xavier. They did get a sack of Clayberg on Pella's first possession, but again were unable to get a single first down in the entire quarter. Meanwhile, the Dutch responded with a grinding 13-play drive, converting three 3rd downs on the way, to pick up another touchdown to make it 27-0 late in the third.
After being pinned at the 1 midway through the fourth quarter on a great pooch punt, Xavier's best play of the entire game was a 40-yard pass from Schulte to Nick Stark. The Saints actually got two more first downs on this drive, reaching the Pella 31 before Schulte was sacked on both 3rd and 4th downs. I believe Pella sacked Schulte 7 times in the game, and forced an intentional grounding call as well, which is pretty much another sack.
Pella is a fast, talented, athletic team with a quick defense and an offense that does a lot of things out of the shotgun. It will be very interesting to see how they match up against Bishop Heelan of Sioux City in the championship ... Heelan is defending their 3A title, with their only loss this season in the first game to 4A Sioux City East. The Crusaders absolutely demolished Creston in the other semifinal, forcing turnovers galore and showing an explosive offense. It should be a fun game.
Of course, I thought Xavier might give Pella a competitive game, and see how that turned out.
So, Xavier's season ends at 9-4, the most losses since a 5-5 season in 2011. Looking forward to next year, Bryce Schulte, Nick Stark and Sean Murphy will return with a year's experience under their belts. Joe Constant, Caleb Billick and Bryce Charipar saw considerable time on the field this year, with big contributions. Add on athletes from this year's 8-1 sophomore squad (with a couple of dandy running backs), and the Saints will be looking for another successful season in 2015.
Sunday, November 16, 2014
Saturday, November 8, 2014
A Gritty, Gutsy Win
Well, the Iowa State game is a disgrace, and the Arizona State-Notre Dame game is a blowout, so ... guess I will update my blog on a great Xavier quarterfinal win last night.
First off, Xavier came into this game severely hurt. Starting fullback and linebacker Nic Ekland broke his leg in the Waverly-Shell Rock game last Monday. Starting tailback Jay Kortemeyer also was hurt, and out for the rest of the year. Kortemeyer was the team's leading rusher, with over 1000 yards on the season. Ekland was a fearsome tackler, a ferocious blocker, and had scored four times in the two playoff games (including a school-record 97-yard run against Charles City). These were huge losses.
And, Coach Schulte and his staff had only three days to get the team prepared and get a game plan in, to get ready for a West Delaware squad that averaged well over 400 yards per game on offense. The Hawks featured the duo of Coy Roussell and Brent Lammers, who had accounted for 2300-some yards and 31 touchdowns on the ground, while Lammers had also thrown for 1100 yards and 11 more TDs. West Delaware had lost once all season - a 10-0 decision to Independence in a game where neither Lammers nor Roussell were able to play, a game where Independence barely mounted 100 yards of total offense, a game where the only touchdown came on a turnover.
In all seriousness, I would not have been surprised if this game turned out to be the end of the road for Xavier. Those key injuries, this truly tough opponent in West Delaware ... it could easily have been a Saints loss, and nobody would have felt cheated for the way the season ended.
Instead, Xavier gutted out a tremendous tough, gritty, hard-hittingly physical win, taking the quarterfinal 27-17 and moving on to the semifinals in the UNI Dome next week. Xavier took command early, which is so important in these closely matched games. After holding the Hawks to a three and out to start the game, the Saints took over in great field position at the West Delaware 46. Coach Schulte said go for it on first down, and Bryce Schulte found Matt Downey wheeling out of the backfield for the lightning-strike touchdown on Xavier's first play. After again forcing a West Delaware punt, Schulte went deep again on the very first play and just barely overthrew his receiver, on what likely would have been another score. Schulte later found Joe Welch for a 42-yard gain on that drive, then added a nice 22-yard run on his own. Xavier tallied another touchdown on that drive, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead.
Xavier forced a fumble on the next WD possession (the 10th turnover for Xavier in the past four games), but couldn't do anything with it. Things settled down some after that, as West Delaware started to click better on offense and slow the Saints down more on defense. The Hawks rolled on an 11-play drive to reach inside the Xavier 20, but the Saints stopped Lammers for a loss on 4th down. West Delaware then got an iffy kick catch-interference penalty to start inside the Xavier 40, but again were stopped on 4th down at the 8. Then came the first of two true gut-check drives by the Saints. Starting at the 8, Xavier drove all the way to the West Delaware 15 in 8 plays. The Saints tried three straight passes into the end zone, one of them off-target, the other two just barely knocked away by Hawk defenders. Dallas Klein then booted a 32-yard field goal, tying his longest of the season, to give Xavier a 17-0 lead. West Delaware quickly got back to the Xavier 21 with seconds left, but Lammers was sacked twice to end the half.
The third quarter saw momentum shift in about as dramatic a fashion as you'll ever see. Xavier punted after a three-and-out, forcing West Delaware to start at their 8. The Hawks quickly got out of the hole, but saw themselves with a 4th and 9 at the 35. On the punt, the Saints were flagged for running into the punter, which gave West Delaware a 4th and 4 at the 39. Then Lammers used a hard count and pulled the Saints defensive line offside for a free first down. Roussell rambled for 45 yards on the next play, and Lammers finished with a 10-yard TD run to get WD on the board.
Two plays later, Schulte fumbled on the option fake-handoff (just the third turnover by Xavier in the past nine games), and West Delaware jumped on the ball at the Xavier 10. Three plays later Lammers threw to Trent Curley for the score, and suddenly it was just 17-14 Xavier. The huge West Delaware crowd was roaring, while the Xavier fans were getting quietly nervous. The teams exchanged three-and-outs, but the field position was creeping ever closer to the West Delaware end zone. The Hawks had to punt from their own three, and a good return coupled with a personal foul penalty on West Delaware set Xavier up at the 21. Three plays later Schulte carried in from the four and the Saints had breathing room again, up 24-14.
The Hawks responded with a 58-yard pass play from Lammers to Curley, and on the second play of the fourth quarter West Delaware tried their first field goal of the entire season. Alex Reetz booted it through from 34 yards out, and it was back to a 7-point game. Xavier was stopped on another three and out, and West Delaware put together another decent drive with Roussell carrying the load. The fourth down try was stopped at the Xavier 36.
Now came gut-check drive number two. With about 7 minutes to play, and protecting a 7-point lead, Xavier moved the ball steadily down the field. Sean Murphy, replacing Kortemeyer, bore almost all the load on the drive, converting twice on third downs and picking up four first downs total as the Saints moved the ball down to the 9. Klein finally finished off the 12-play drive with a 25-yard field goal, giving Xavier a 27-27 lead with under 2 minutes to play.
West Delaware tried to respond. The Hawks converted on a 4th-down throw thanks to another iffy pass-interference call, then converted another 4th-down play on a 29-yard pass from Lammers to Curley. Lammers was sacked on the next play, though, and that's when the clock ran out.
What a great performance by the Saints, stepping up to respond to season-ending injuries to two of their captains. What a tough performance by the Hawks, with a defensive line raising havoc throughout the contest, and Lammers getting knocked out of the game not once, but twice, and coming back both times on a hobbled ankle, trying to will his team to the end zone.
So the Saints move on. Their next opponent will be Pella, the number one team in Class 3A all season long. The Little Dutch are the only undefeated team left in 3A, and have rolled over pretty much all their opponents all season long. They have outscored their competition by an average 47-8 score, topped 50 points five times, and have yet to allow over 14 points to any team. Pella will be a stern test for the Saints, and sets up what looks like a dandy semifinal matchup on Thursday.
First off, Xavier came into this game severely hurt. Starting fullback and linebacker Nic Ekland broke his leg in the Waverly-Shell Rock game last Monday. Starting tailback Jay Kortemeyer also was hurt, and out for the rest of the year. Kortemeyer was the team's leading rusher, with over 1000 yards on the season. Ekland was a fearsome tackler, a ferocious blocker, and had scored four times in the two playoff games (including a school-record 97-yard run against Charles City). These were huge losses.
And, Coach Schulte and his staff had only three days to get the team prepared and get a game plan in, to get ready for a West Delaware squad that averaged well over 400 yards per game on offense. The Hawks featured the duo of Coy Roussell and Brent Lammers, who had accounted for 2300-some yards and 31 touchdowns on the ground, while Lammers had also thrown for 1100 yards and 11 more TDs. West Delaware had lost once all season - a 10-0 decision to Independence in a game where neither Lammers nor Roussell were able to play, a game where Independence barely mounted 100 yards of total offense, a game where the only touchdown came on a turnover.
In all seriousness, I would not have been surprised if this game turned out to be the end of the road for Xavier. Those key injuries, this truly tough opponent in West Delaware ... it could easily have been a Saints loss, and nobody would have felt cheated for the way the season ended.
Instead, Xavier gutted out a tremendous tough, gritty, hard-hittingly physical win, taking the quarterfinal 27-17 and moving on to the semifinals in the UNI Dome next week. Xavier took command early, which is so important in these closely matched games. After holding the Hawks to a three and out to start the game, the Saints took over in great field position at the West Delaware 46. Coach Schulte said go for it on first down, and Bryce Schulte found Matt Downey wheeling out of the backfield for the lightning-strike touchdown on Xavier's first play. After again forcing a West Delaware punt, Schulte went deep again on the very first play and just barely overthrew his receiver, on what likely would have been another score. Schulte later found Joe Welch for a 42-yard gain on that drive, then added a nice 22-yard run on his own. Xavier tallied another touchdown on that drive, taking a 14-0 first quarter lead.
Xavier forced a fumble on the next WD possession (the 10th turnover for Xavier in the past four games), but couldn't do anything with it. Things settled down some after that, as West Delaware started to click better on offense and slow the Saints down more on defense. The Hawks rolled on an 11-play drive to reach inside the Xavier 20, but the Saints stopped Lammers for a loss on 4th down. West Delaware then got an iffy kick catch-interference penalty to start inside the Xavier 40, but again were stopped on 4th down at the 8. Then came the first of two true gut-check drives by the Saints. Starting at the 8, Xavier drove all the way to the West Delaware 15 in 8 plays. The Saints tried three straight passes into the end zone, one of them off-target, the other two just barely knocked away by Hawk defenders. Dallas Klein then booted a 32-yard field goal, tying his longest of the season, to give Xavier a 17-0 lead. West Delaware quickly got back to the Xavier 21 with seconds left, but Lammers was sacked twice to end the half.
The third quarter saw momentum shift in about as dramatic a fashion as you'll ever see. Xavier punted after a three-and-out, forcing West Delaware to start at their 8. The Hawks quickly got out of the hole, but saw themselves with a 4th and 9 at the 35. On the punt, the Saints were flagged for running into the punter, which gave West Delaware a 4th and 4 at the 39. Then Lammers used a hard count and pulled the Saints defensive line offside for a free first down. Roussell rambled for 45 yards on the next play, and Lammers finished with a 10-yard TD run to get WD on the board.
Two plays later, Schulte fumbled on the option fake-handoff (just the third turnover by Xavier in the past nine games), and West Delaware jumped on the ball at the Xavier 10. Three plays later Lammers threw to Trent Curley for the score, and suddenly it was just 17-14 Xavier. The huge West Delaware crowd was roaring, while the Xavier fans were getting quietly nervous. The teams exchanged three-and-outs, but the field position was creeping ever closer to the West Delaware end zone. The Hawks had to punt from their own three, and a good return coupled with a personal foul penalty on West Delaware set Xavier up at the 21. Three plays later Schulte carried in from the four and the Saints had breathing room again, up 24-14.
The Hawks responded with a 58-yard pass play from Lammers to Curley, and on the second play of the fourth quarter West Delaware tried their first field goal of the entire season. Alex Reetz booted it through from 34 yards out, and it was back to a 7-point game. Xavier was stopped on another three and out, and West Delaware put together another decent drive with Roussell carrying the load. The fourth down try was stopped at the Xavier 36.
Now came gut-check drive number two. With about 7 minutes to play, and protecting a 7-point lead, Xavier moved the ball steadily down the field. Sean Murphy, replacing Kortemeyer, bore almost all the load on the drive, converting twice on third downs and picking up four first downs total as the Saints moved the ball down to the 9. Klein finally finished off the 12-play drive with a 25-yard field goal, giving Xavier a 27-27 lead with under 2 minutes to play.
West Delaware tried to respond. The Hawks converted on a 4th-down throw thanks to another iffy pass-interference call, then converted another 4th-down play on a 29-yard pass from Lammers to Curley. Lammers was sacked on the next play, though, and that's when the clock ran out.
What a great performance by the Saints, stepping up to respond to season-ending injuries to two of their captains. What a tough performance by the Hawks, with a defensive line raising havoc throughout the contest, and Lammers getting knocked out of the game not once, but twice, and coming back both times on a hobbled ankle, trying to will his team to the end zone.
So the Saints move on. Their next opponent will be Pella, the number one team in Class 3A all season long. The Little Dutch are the only undefeated team left in 3A, and have rolled over pretty much all their opponents all season long. They have outscored their competition by an average 47-8 score, topped 50 points five times, and have yet to allow over 14 points to any team. Pella will be a stern test for the Saints, and sets up what looks like a dandy semifinal matchup on Thursday.
Wednesday, November 5, 2014
I Said I'd Let You Know
So, I told you once we got our new washer set up, I'd let you know how things were going.
Well, it's different. These high-efficiency washers load differently, you use soap differently, they work differently. I think we've kinda figured things out. We've run several different types of loads through it, and it seems to do okay.
I have discovered, though, that if you know you have some stains, you better pretreat those suckers. These types of washers use far less water, so you don't have your clothes necessarily covered by water through the wash cycle. And yes, that is going to mean it doesn't clean quite so effectively. I had a small tomato sauce stain on a white sock (it's a long story), and while the wash cycle improved it, it didn't come all the way clean.
So, plenty of Shout will be on hand from here on out. Just like Tears for Fears sang back in the 1980s, "Shout ... shout ... get those stains out. These are the stains I can do without ... Come on!"
Well, it's different. These high-efficiency washers load differently, you use soap differently, they work differently. I think we've kinda figured things out. We've run several different types of loads through it, and it seems to do okay.
I have discovered, though, that if you know you have some stains, you better pretreat those suckers. These types of washers use far less water, so you don't have your clothes necessarily covered by water through the wash cycle. And yes, that is going to mean it doesn't clean quite so effectively. I had a small tomato sauce stain on a white sock (it's a long story), and while the wash cycle improved it, it didn't come all the way clean.
So, plenty of Shout will be on hand from here on out. Just like Tears for Fears sang back in the 1980s, "Shout ... shout ... get those stains out. These are the stains I can do without ... Come on!"
Playoffs Come Thick and Fast
Yes, I know, I have been remiss in keeping this updated. Iowa's compressed playoff schedule is partly to blame - you go from the regular season finale on a Friday, to the first round the next Wednesday, to the second round the following Monday, then the third round the Friday after that. Teams advancing to the quarterfinals play four games in two weeks. It's borderline insane.
Anyway, Xavier is one of those quarterfinal teams. Even though the state threw out the "sister district" concept for this year, where two districts would be paired up for playoff matches through the first three rounds, it didn't make any difference to the Saints. All three of their playoff opponents so far hail from District 3.
In the first round, Xavier took on Charles City. The Comets finished fourth in D-3, but suffered their three district losses by only 10 points total (falling by 6 to West Delaware and only by 2 each to Independence and Waverly-Shell Rock). Charles City came in with a pretty good quarterback in Levi Blaine, who led the team in both passing and rushing, and quite the top receiver in Shane Feller.
Xavier picked up where they left off the season, though. Remember how they forced four turnovers against Marion in the second half? Well, they forced four more in the first half here, making it eight turnovers in the span of four quarters. Bryce Schulte threw for three touchdowns in the half as Coach Schulte decided to keep forcing the ball downfield against a defense stacking the line of scrimmage.
In the third quarter, the Saints ran it to 35-0, including a school-record 97-yard TD run by Nic Ekland, before Charles City was finally able to get on the board. The Comets got their score on a 47-yard pass where the Saint defender gambled on undercutting the play to try for the interception, but missed, allowing Dallas Nehls to run it in the rest of the way. The final tally was 35-6 Xavier.
On to the second round, this time facing Waverly-Shell Rock, the second-place team in D-3. The Go-Hawks had lost only to West Delaware and Class 2A #1 Clear Lake, and averaged over 330 yards per game coming in. Xavier didn't pile up more of the turnovers in this game, but still came firing out of the gate for a big first quarter. On the second possession, Kortmeyer carried all but one play on a 52-yard scoring drive to make it 7-0. After forcing a three and out, Schulte completed passes to Noah Clasen and Ekland for a quick 42-yard TD drive. After another three and out, Nick Stark's 41-yard end around run set up Schulte for another TD pass to Ekland. This one was a beaut, floated between two defenders right into Ekland's hands at the 4, where he took it the rest of the way. It was 21-0 early in the second quarter.
But for those noticing, there's been a little trend developing in playoffs. Charles City put together three strong drives in their loss, turning the ball over on downs at the 7 and the 4, then throwing an interception inside the 16 after a 14-play drive. Waverly-Shell Rock begins the first of four long drives of their own, this one aided by a dumb personal foul penalty on Xavier near midfield. The Saints still hold, forcing a 4th and 6 at the 7 yard line, when Jake Velky makes like Fran Tarkenton. The Go-Hawk QB escapes the Saints rush, retreating all the way back to the 40, then crosses the field from right to left. He finally buys enough time to find Jay McNally in the end zone for the score to make it 21-7. That caps an 11-play, 79-yard drive.
A couple of possessions later Schulte's 52-yard pass to Stark sets up Dallas Klein for a 29-yard field goal, which makes the halftime score 24-7. Some key things happen in the second half. It becomes apparent Ekland - starting fullback and linebacker - is out of the game, unlikely to return. About five plays into the third quarter, Kortemeyer - starting tailback - also hobbles out of the game. It's time for next man in, as Sean Murphy takes over at tailback and rips off a 48-yard run on the way to a 76-yard scoring drive.
Waverly-Shell Rock answers, in nearly a carbon copy of their first scoring drive. This time it's an offsides penalty on Xavier on 4th and 4 that helps the Go-Hawks, then Velky has another scrambling, running, twisting play before finding McNally at the 1. Andrew Ragsdale pounds it in (just the second rushing TD Xavier has allowed against 3A teams all year), and suddenly it's a two-possession game at 30-14. Waverly-Shell Rock's onside kick try goes out of bounds, Xavier capitializes with another field goal to make it 33-14, the Saints intercept Velky on the next drive, and the Go-Hawks are pretty much out of chances.
Waverly-Shell Rock does add two more looooong drives in the fourth quarter - a 12-play drive ends when Velky slips on the rainy grass on 4th down, and an 11-play drive goes 77 yards for the score (on a tipped pass reception by Ryan Sprain) with only 4 seconds left. Xavier takes it 33-20.
A couple of fun notes: Xavier is plus-15 in turnover differential.That's after being minus-1 after three games, so the Saints have dominated in takeaways 18-2 in their last eight games and 9-1 in their last three. Also, Waverly-Shell Rock went for two on their last touchdown and failed, which means the Saints have faced five two-point tries this season and stopped them all.
The quarterfinal opponent is a tough, tough West Delaware team that won the D-3 title. The Hawks' only loss was a 10-0 game to Independence, on a night when West Delaware's quarterback and running back were unable to play. The running back, Coy Roussell, actually missed three games, I think, with mono - and has still run for over 1300 yards. The Hawks average close to 440 yards a game - 440!- which leads the state in Class 3A. The tandem of Roussell and QB Brent Lammers have scored 31 touchdowns on the ground, and Lammers has passed for 11 more. This is a fearsome offensive team, and the Xavier defense, as good as they are, are going to have their hands full.
Not to mention the injury side of things. There's no telling if Ekland or Kortemeyer will be able to play for Xavier. Ekland is a huge loss, both as a blocker and receiver on offense and a hard hitter at the linebacker position. Both guys have contributed tremendously in Xavier's playoff wins. Ryan Williams and Murphy stepped up in the second half Monday night, but they will have to step up even more to give Xavier a chance to move on to the semifinal round in the UNI Dome.
Time will tell, but this is a really tough challenge for Xavier.
Anyway, Xavier is one of those quarterfinal teams. Even though the state threw out the "sister district" concept for this year, where two districts would be paired up for playoff matches through the first three rounds, it didn't make any difference to the Saints. All three of their playoff opponents so far hail from District 3.
In the first round, Xavier took on Charles City. The Comets finished fourth in D-3, but suffered their three district losses by only 10 points total (falling by 6 to West Delaware and only by 2 each to Independence and Waverly-Shell Rock). Charles City came in with a pretty good quarterback in Levi Blaine, who led the team in both passing and rushing, and quite the top receiver in Shane Feller.
Xavier picked up where they left off the season, though. Remember how they forced four turnovers against Marion in the second half? Well, they forced four more in the first half here, making it eight turnovers in the span of four quarters. Bryce Schulte threw for three touchdowns in the half as Coach Schulte decided to keep forcing the ball downfield against a defense stacking the line of scrimmage.
In the third quarter, the Saints ran it to 35-0, including a school-record 97-yard TD run by Nic Ekland, before Charles City was finally able to get on the board. The Comets got their score on a 47-yard pass where the Saint defender gambled on undercutting the play to try for the interception, but missed, allowing Dallas Nehls to run it in the rest of the way. The final tally was 35-6 Xavier.
On to the second round, this time facing Waverly-Shell Rock, the second-place team in D-3. The Go-Hawks had lost only to West Delaware and Class 2A #1 Clear Lake, and averaged over 330 yards per game coming in. Xavier didn't pile up more of the turnovers in this game, but still came firing out of the gate for a big first quarter. On the second possession, Kortmeyer carried all but one play on a 52-yard scoring drive to make it 7-0. After forcing a three and out, Schulte completed passes to Noah Clasen and Ekland for a quick 42-yard TD drive. After another three and out, Nick Stark's 41-yard end around run set up Schulte for another TD pass to Ekland. This one was a beaut, floated between two defenders right into Ekland's hands at the 4, where he took it the rest of the way. It was 21-0 early in the second quarter.
But for those noticing, there's been a little trend developing in playoffs. Charles City put together three strong drives in their loss, turning the ball over on downs at the 7 and the 4, then throwing an interception inside the 16 after a 14-play drive. Waverly-Shell Rock begins the first of four long drives of their own, this one aided by a dumb personal foul penalty on Xavier near midfield. The Saints still hold, forcing a 4th and 6 at the 7 yard line, when Jake Velky makes like Fran Tarkenton. The Go-Hawk QB escapes the Saints rush, retreating all the way back to the 40, then crosses the field from right to left. He finally buys enough time to find Jay McNally in the end zone for the score to make it 21-7. That caps an 11-play, 79-yard drive.
A couple of possessions later Schulte's 52-yard pass to Stark sets up Dallas Klein for a 29-yard field goal, which makes the halftime score 24-7. Some key things happen in the second half. It becomes apparent Ekland - starting fullback and linebacker - is out of the game, unlikely to return. About five plays into the third quarter, Kortemeyer - starting tailback - also hobbles out of the game. It's time for next man in, as Sean Murphy takes over at tailback and rips off a 48-yard run on the way to a 76-yard scoring drive.
Waverly-Shell Rock answers, in nearly a carbon copy of their first scoring drive. This time it's an offsides penalty on Xavier on 4th and 4 that helps the Go-Hawks, then Velky has another scrambling, running, twisting play before finding McNally at the 1. Andrew Ragsdale pounds it in (just the second rushing TD Xavier has allowed against 3A teams all year), and suddenly it's a two-possession game at 30-14. Waverly-Shell Rock's onside kick try goes out of bounds, Xavier capitializes with another field goal to make it 33-14, the Saints intercept Velky on the next drive, and the Go-Hawks are pretty much out of chances.
Waverly-Shell Rock does add two more looooong drives in the fourth quarter - a 12-play drive ends when Velky slips on the rainy grass on 4th down, and an 11-play drive goes 77 yards for the score (on a tipped pass reception by Ryan Sprain) with only 4 seconds left. Xavier takes it 33-20.
A couple of fun notes: Xavier is plus-15 in turnover differential.That's after being minus-1 after three games, so the Saints have dominated in takeaways 18-2 in their last eight games and 9-1 in their last three. Also, Waverly-Shell Rock went for two on their last touchdown and failed, which means the Saints have faced five two-point tries this season and stopped them all.
The quarterfinal opponent is a tough, tough West Delaware team that won the D-3 title. The Hawks' only loss was a 10-0 game to Independence, on a night when West Delaware's quarterback and running back were unable to play. The running back, Coy Roussell, actually missed three games, I think, with mono - and has still run for over 1300 yards. The Hawks average close to 440 yards a game - 440!- which leads the state in Class 3A. The tandem of Roussell and QB Brent Lammers have scored 31 touchdowns on the ground, and Lammers has passed for 11 more. This is a fearsome offensive team, and the Xavier defense, as good as they are, are going to have their hands full.
Not to mention the injury side of things. There's no telling if Ekland or Kortemeyer will be able to play for Xavier. Ekland is a huge loss, both as a blocker and receiver on offense and a hard hitter at the linebacker position. Both guys have contributed tremendously in Xavier's playoff wins. Ryan Williams and Murphy stepped up in the second half Monday night, but they will have to step up even more to give Xavier a chance to move on to the semifinal round in the UNI Dome.
Time will tell, but this is a really tough challenge for Xavier.
Tuesday, October 28, 2014
Hey! Something That's Not About Football!
If it's not the moles, it's something else. Homeowning can really be for the birds, I think.
It does seem like every time I think I'm getting a bit ahead with the old finances, having a bit of extra money to sock away (or pay down what I had to borrow) ... something comes up. This week, it turns out the great anniversary gift for my wife is a new washing machine.
Appliances break, things need maintenance, replacing stuff is part of owning a home. I get all that. Doesn't make it any more fun. The old washer had been making uncomfortable noises for a while now, but you know, it was almost 10 years old. I make uncomfortable noises, too, but I still work. But last Saturday, just as we were finishing up the week's wash ... it was making some uncomfortable noises while it wasn't actually doing anything. I just happened to be in the basement working on the computer when I heard the machine buzz and whine, then stop. But there wasn't any motion, or water running, or washing type things happening.
I knew that was bad. I went into the laundry room to find the smell of a burned-out motor, or belt, or both. Luckily ... luckily! ... the water had drained from the last load, it just hadn't spun out yet. So all things considered, it was probably the best possible part of the wash cycle for it to die.
So, off to find a new washing machine. You know there aren't any appliance stores any more. You have Sears, or Best Buy, or Lowes, or Home Depot. That's about it. Plus, in the old days, you went and looked at machines, and the salesperson told you about them, and you picked one out that had a decent price and good size. Now you check reviews online, and every model has people saying "THIS WASHER SUCKS!" and "Never buy a (brand name) again!" and "This machine tears up my clothes!" Maybe the reviews for the $1300 washers don't say that, but I'll never know. I'm not going to pay $1300 for a washing machine. Ever.
So you finally pick out one that seems to have pretty good ratings, and has a fairly decent price, and you hold your breath and hand over your credit card and you hope you didn't screw up. Because there's only about two companies in the world who actually build washing machines any more, they just stick different brand names on them, so problems people have with one model are problems you'll probably have with another, and nobody builds anything to last very long anymore, and everything has computer chips in them now that can stop working without warning and can never be fixed and ....
Crazy. Crazy buying household appliances anymore. I do not like it. This thing hasn't even been delivered yet, so who knows how long it might take to actually learn how to use it. If it works at all.
Homeownership. What a concept, huh?
It does seem like every time I think I'm getting a bit ahead with the old finances, having a bit of extra money to sock away (or pay down what I had to borrow) ... something comes up. This week, it turns out the great anniversary gift for my wife is a new washing machine.
Appliances break, things need maintenance, replacing stuff is part of owning a home. I get all that. Doesn't make it any more fun. The old washer had been making uncomfortable noises for a while now, but you know, it was almost 10 years old. I make uncomfortable noises, too, but I still work. But last Saturday, just as we were finishing up the week's wash ... it was making some uncomfortable noises while it wasn't actually doing anything. I just happened to be in the basement working on the computer when I heard the machine buzz and whine, then stop. But there wasn't any motion, or water running, or washing type things happening.
I knew that was bad. I went into the laundry room to find the smell of a burned-out motor, or belt, or both. Luckily ... luckily! ... the water had drained from the last load, it just hadn't spun out yet. So all things considered, it was probably the best possible part of the wash cycle for it to die.
So, off to find a new washing machine. You know there aren't any appliance stores any more. You have Sears, or Best Buy, or Lowes, or Home Depot. That's about it. Plus, in the old days, you went and looked at machines, and the salesperson told you about them, and you picked one out that had a decent price and good size. Now you check reviews online, and every model has people saying "THIS WASHER SUCKS!" and "Never buy a (brand name) again!" and "This machine tears up my clothes!" Maybe the reviews for the $1300 washers don't say that, but I'll never know. I'm not going to pay $1300 for a washing machine. Ever.
So you finally pick out one that seems to have pretty good ratings, and has a fairly decent price, and you hold your breath and hand over your credit card and you hope you didn't screw up. Because there's only about two companies in the world who actually build washing machines any more, they just stick different brand names on them, so problems people have with one model are problems you'll probably have with another, and nobody builds anything to last very long anymore, and everything has computer chips in them now that can stop working without warning and can never be fixed and ....
Crazy. Crazy buying household appliances anymore. I do not like it. This thing hasn't even been delivered yet, so who knows how long it might take to actually learn how to use it. If it works at all.
Homeownership. What a concept, huh?
Another Take on Xavier's Season
(Subtitled: Things I Think About While I'm Raking the Yard.)
The 2012 Xavier Saints (4A): Undefeated in the regular season. Running the continuous clock on opponents week in and week out. Rolled through the playoffs, and ended up leading the championship game most of the fourth quarter before finally falling to Ankeny.
The 2013 Xavier Saints (4A): Eight shutouts by the defense. Only one loss during the regular season, to a really good, quickly improving Washington team. Rolled through the playoffs, before being rather convincingly beaten by Dowling in the championship.
It's no surprise that many people thought that having this team play in Class 3A in 2014 would be a farce - that these 4A powerhouse players would slice through the smaller class like a hot knife through butter. So to have Xavier finish at 6-3, even winning their district (on a tiebreaker), might be a little disappointing for some fans.
Hold on. Let's take another look at things.
Two of those three losses were to defending state champions.
Xavier's only 3A loss, in their district, was by a single point, with Xavier missing an extra point and a field goal. The winners of that game ended up with the top offense in the district.
Xavier was tied with Regina in the fourth quarter. It took three big plays by the Regals to pull ahead by two touchdowns late.
Dowling won quite handily in the opening game. But ... the Maroons ran the continuous clock on every team they played this year except two: West Des Moines Valley, and Cedar Rapids Xavier. The Saints held Dowling to over 200 yards below their season per-game average for rushing. With the exception of their loss to Valley, Dowling scored 45 points or more on every opponent - except for the 24 they managed against Xavier (and 14 of those came on a short field after interceptions).
Not to lessen the achievements of Dowling, Western Dubuque and Iowa City Regina. All three of those teams outplayed Xavier, and deserved the wins they got on the field. But none of them were exactly blowouts. The Saints contended hard in all three of those losses, and had a chance in two of them.
So, just some things going through my head while raking on a windy day. Now we'll see how the Saints can handle 3A playoff competition.
The 2012 Xavier Saints (4A): Undefeated in the regular season. Running the continuous clock on opponents week in and week out. Rolled through the playoffs, and ended up leading the championship game most of the fourth quarter before finally falling to Ankeny.
The 2013 Xavier Saints (4A): Eight shutouts by the defense. Only one loss during the regular season, to a really good, quickly improving Washington team. Rolled through the playoffs, before being rather convincingly beaten by Dowling in the championship.
It's no surprise that many people thought that having this team play in Class 3A in 2014 would be a farce - that these 4A powerhouse players would slice through the smaller class like a hot knife through butter. So to have Xavier finish at 6-3, even winning their district (on a tiebreaker), might be a little disappointing for some fans.
Hold on. Let's take another look at things.
Two of those three losses were to defending state champions.
Xavier's only 3A loss, in their district, was by a single point, with Xavier missing an extra point and a field goal. The winners of that game ended up with the top offense in the district.
Xavier was tied with Regina in the fourth quarter. It took three big plays by the Regals to pull ahead by two touchdowns late.
Dowling won quite handily in the opening game. But ... the Maroons ran the continuous clock on every team they played this year except two: West Des Moines Valley, and Cedar Rapids Xavier. The Saints held Dowling to over 200 yards below their season per-game average for rushing. With the exception of their loss to Valley, Dowling scored 45 points or more on every opponent - except for the 24 they managed against Xavier (and 14 of those came on a short field after interceptions).
Not to lessen the achievements of Dowling, Western Dubuque and Iowa City Regina. All three of those teams outplayed Xavier, and deserved the wins they got on the field. But none of them were exactly blowouts. The Saints contended hard in all three of those losses, and had a chance in two of them.
So, just some things going through my head while raking on a windy day. Now we'll see how the Saints can handle 3A playoff competition.
Sunday, October 26, 2014
A Season Of ... Huh. Go Figure
Xavier closed out their regular season last Friday with a convincing 37-6 win over Marion. That was about as expected - while Marion came into the night with a 7-game losing streak, they'd kept most games close with their defense. Turnovers and injuries had been a huge problem for Marion. Well, four turnovers in the second half against Xavier certainly added to the Saints' point total.
Xavier showed some new wrinkles on offense. Instead of the jet sweep to Nick Stark that had been featured all year, they put Stark in motion, then handed off inside to a running back. Later they showed the same look, but Stark bubbled behind the tailback position for an old-school end around play (it didn't work, but it was different). On a couple of occasions both running backs motioned out of the backfield to a split position, and the Saints tried an outside screen pass to Jay Kortemeyer with Nic Ekland blocking right in front of him. Xavier also went deep, which we haven't seen a whole lot this year. I can think of three times in the second half; one was just a bit too far for Joe Welch, while the other two were completed to Welch for 45- and 26-yard touchdowns.
Xavier's defense continued to be solid. Marion's only points came right after the second-half kickoff, which took a bounce that fooled Matt Downey. He stumbled a bit trying to recover, thought maybe the ball would go out of bounds, then didn't get to it in time as a Marion player recovered at the Xavier 2. The Indians got a touchdown a couple of plays later, but that was it. Marion only crossed midfield on one possession the entire game, and that was helped by a (truly bogus) pass interference penalty.
(Seriously. I'm not one to be too hard on high school officials - I umpire myself, and had thoughts about football officiating a few years back - but this was a hugely blatant offensive pass interference call. The Marion receiver almost yanked Downey down to the ground by his jersey. But the call went against Downey. Seriously, guys.)
So the Saints win their district in their first year as a 3A school. They did not, however, blow through the season with ease, as so many pundits assumed they would, finishing with a 6-3 record (5-1 in the district, and if you want to be coy about it, 6-1 against 3A competition). Two of those three losses were to defending state champions (Dowling and Regina), but the other one, the district loss to Western Dubuque, came as a bit of a surprise and a wakeup call. Xavier was able to get the district crown on a points tiebreaker, as their record put them in a three-way tie with the Bobcats and Solon.
On to the playoffs. Xavier's first round opponent will be the Comets of Charles City, who finished fourth in a very tough District 3. That district came within 3 points of a five-way tie for first last Friday - Charles City lost to Waverly-Shell Rock by 2 and Decorah lost to West Delaware by 1. If those two games came out the other way ... mass hysteria. Anyway, the Comets are a good, solid team. They lost three games in their district, by a total of 10 points. They defeated a good Decorah team convincingly. It appears their offensive attack is centered around two players - QB Levi Blaine has thrown for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns, and also is Charles City's leading rusher. Brian Foster has rushed for 587 yards (8.5 yards a carry!) and 8 touchdowns, and has also caught 13 passes. Those two guys are key for the Comets.
I feel better about Xavier's chances of advancement into the playoffs after seeing their performance against Marion. As I mentioned last week, they're really good on defense, which can carry you a ways, but the offense perked up some and I think that's a very good sign as the playoffs begin. Not to look ahead - Charles City will be tough - but the second round opponents are likely to be either Waverly-Shell Rock or Washington. Waverly-Shell Rock finished second in that tough District 3, while Washington was second in the state last year and has been playing really good football for the past month. Also possible, with some first-round upsets, are Davenport Assumption, Newton or Fairfield, but those are all expected to lose Wednesday night.
Xavier showed some new wrinkles on offense. Instead of the jet sweep to Nick Stark that had been featured all year, they put Stark in motion, then handed off inside to a running back. Later they showed the same look, but Stark bubbled behind the tailback position for an old-school end around play (it didn't work, but it was different). On a couple of occasions both running backs motioned out of the backfield to a split position, and the Saints tried an outside screen pass to Jay Kortemeyer with Nic Ekland blocking right in front of him. Xavier also went deep, which we haven't seen a whole lot this year. I can think of three times in the second half; one was just a bit too far for Joe Welch, while the other two were completed to Welch for 45- and 26-yard touchdowns.
Xavier's defense continued to be solid. Marion's only points came right after the second-half kickoff, which took a bounce that fooled Matt Downey. He stumbled a bit trying to recover, thought maybe the ball would go out of bounds, then didn't get to it in time as a Marion player recovered at the Xavier 2. The Indians got a touchdown a couple of plays later, but that was it. Marion only crossed midfield on one possession the entire game, and that was helped by a (truly bogus) pass interference penalty.
(Seriously. I'm not one to be too hard on high school officials - I umpire myself, and had thoughts about football officiating a few years back - but this was a hugely blatant offensive pass interference call. The Marion receiver almost yanked Downey down to the ground by his jersey. But the call went against Downey. Seriously, guys.)
So the Saints win their district in their first year as a 3A school. They did not, however, blow through the season with ease, as so many pundits assumed they would, finishing with a 6-3 record (5-1 in the district, and if you want to be coy about it, 6-1 against 3A competition). Two of those three losses were to defending state champions (Dowling and Regina), but the other one, the district loss to Western Dubuque, came as a bit of a surprise and a wakeup call. Xavier was able to get the district crown on a points tiebreaker, as their record put them in a three-way tie with the Bobcats and Solon.
On to the playoffs. Xavier's first round opponent will be the Comets of Charles City, who finished fourth in a very tough District 3. That district came within 3 points of a five-way tie for first last Friday - Charles City lost to Waverly-Shell Rock by 2 and Decorah lost to West Delaware by 1. If those two games came out the other way ... mass hysteria. Anyway, the Comets are a good, solid team. They lost three games in their district, by a total of 10 points. They defeated a good Decorah team convincingly. It appears their offensive attack is centered around two players - QB Levi Blaine has thrown for over 1000 yards and 12 touchdowns, and also is Charles City's leading rusher. Brian Foster has rushed for 587 yards (8.5 yards a carry!) and 8 touchdowns, and has also caught 13 passes. Those two guys are key for the Comets.
I feel better about Xavier's chances of advancement into the playoffs after seeing their performance against Marion. As I mentioned last week, they're really good on defense, which can carry you a ways, but the offense perked up some and I think that's a very good sign as the playoffs begin. Not to look ahead - Charles City will be tough - but the second round opponents are likely to be either Waverly-Shell Rock or Washington. Waverly-Shell Rock finished second in that tough District 3, while Washington was second in the state last year and has been playing really good football for the past month. Also possible, with some first-round upsets, are Davenport Assumption, Newton or Fairfield, but those are all expected to lose Wednesday night.
Monday, October 20, 2014
Clip and Save #2 (You Better Toss the First One)
I knew things would happen over the last couple of weeks that were unexpected. I knew it! And I was right! Does that make me truly psychic? Or is the pesky fact that I didn't predict exactly what would happen count me out there? Details, details ...
Anyway, we had unusual results like Independence beating (an injury- and sickness-depleted) West Delaware, Charles City knocking off Decorah (who may not even make the playoffs now), and Solon absolutely destroying Western Dubuque. Who knows what this week might bring?
So, on to my updated projections:
District 1
The only change here is I think Spencer might take the tiebreaker for the fourth spot, over Le Mars and Denison-Schleswig. It'll be hard to know for sure until after Friday.
Sioux City Heelan
Sergeant Bluff-Luton
BHRV
Spencer
District 2
Here it looks like Webster City sneaks into the fourth spot over Perry.
Carroll
Humboldt
Greene County
Webster City
District 3
So Charles City knocked off Decorah and Independence beat West Delaware. Naturally, that means if Charles City can beat Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah is able to beat West Delaware (who might still be without their top running back), we'll have five teams tied at 4-2. That would probably mean Decorah gets the four spot over Independence - who are looking at their first playoff appearance since 1985.
West Delaware (head to head over W-SR)
Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence
Charles City (head to head over Decorah)
District 4
No surprises here. As long as Xavier defeats Marion by 2 points or more, Solon can't catch them for the points tiebreaker.
Xavier (points tiebreaker over Solon and W. Dubuque)
Solon (points tiebreaker over W. Dubuque)
Western Dubuque
Dubuque Wahlert
District 5
If Washington (last year's state runner-up) is able to beat Assumption Friday, they'll trade the second and third spots.
Clear Creek-Amana
Davenport Assumption
Washington
Fairfield
District 6
Bondurant-Farrar did a lot for themselves with a win over Newton last week. They actually have a shot to win the district. Of course, if Grinnell upsets Ballard, this is another district with a five-way tie at 4-2. If they don't, they miss the playoffs entirely.
Ballard
Bondurant-Farrar (head to head over Gilbert and Newton)
Gilbert (head to head over Newton)
Newton
District 7
The third and fourth places will be determined by the Norwalk-Knoxville game Friday.
Pella
Carlisle
Norwalk
Knoxville
District 8
Friday's game between ADM and Harlan is basically a play-in game for the fourth spot.
Dallas Center-Grimes
Creston
Winterset
ADM-Adel/Harlan
First-round matchups
I made a few adjustments for the 125-mile first-round travel limit. The BHRV at Humboldt matchup works out to 126 miles by Google Maps ... so I take the state association at their word and say that doesn't happen. That means BHRV has to get a district rematch with Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Likewise, there are no non-district opponents within 125 miles for Heelan (unless Harlan gets in by beating ADM), so they'll have to face Spencer again.
If all the games shake out Friday like I say, which they won't. Of course.
#4 at #1
Spencer at Heelan (district rematch)
ADM at Carroll
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware
Charles City at Xavier
Newton at Clear Creek-Amana
Knoxville at Ballard
Fairfield at Pella
Webster City at Dallas Center-Grimes
#3 at #2
BHRV at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (district rematch)
Winterset at Humboldt
Gilbert at Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence at Solon
Western Dubuque at Davenport Assumption
Norwalk at Bondurant-Farrar
Washington at Carlisle
Greene County at Creston
Anyway, we had unusual results like Independence beating (an injury- and sickness-depleted) West Delaware, Charles City knocking off Decorah (who may not even make the playoffs now), and Solon absolutely destroying Western Dubuque. Who knows what this week might bring?
So, on to my updated projections:
District 1
The only change here is I think Spencer might take the tiebreaker for the fourth spot, over Le Mars and Denison-Schleswig. It'll be hard to know for sure until after Friday.
Sioux City Heelan
Sergeant Bluff-Luton
BHRV
Spencer
District 2
Here it looks like Webster City sneaks into the fourth spot over Perry.
Carroll
Humboldt
Greene County
Webster City
District 3
So Charles City knocked off Decorah and Independence beat West Delaware. Naturally, that means if Charles City can beat Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah is able to beat West Delaware (who might still be without their top running back), we'll have five teams tied at 4-2. That would probably mean Decorah gets the four spot over Independence - who are looking at their first playoff appearance since 1985.
West Delaware (head to head over W-SR)
Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence
Charles City (head to head over Decorah)
District 4
No surprises here. As long as Xavier defeats Marion by 2 points or more, Solon can't catch them for the points tiebreaker.
Xavier (points tiebreaker over Solon and W. Dubuque)
Solon (points tiebreaker over W. Dubuque)
Western Dubuque
Dubuque Wahlert
District 5
If Washington (last year's state runner-up) is able to beat Assumption Friday, they'll trade the second and third spots.
Clear Creek-Amana
Davenport Assumption
Washington
Fairfield
District 6
Bondurant-Farrar did a lot for themselves with a win over Newton last week. They actually have a shot to win the district. Of course, if Grinnell upsets Ballard, this is another district with a five-way tie at 4-2. If they don't, they miss the playoffs entirely.
Ballard
Bondurant-Farrar (head to head over Gilbert and Newton)
Gilbert (head to head over Newton)
Newton
District 7
The third and fourth places will be determined by the Norwalk-Knoxville game Friday.
Pella
Carlisle
Norwalk
Knoxville
District 8
Friday's game between ADM and Harlan is basically a play-in game for the fourth spot.
Dallas Center-Grimes
Creston
Winterset
ADM-Adel/Harlan
First-round matchups
I made a few adjustments for the 125-mile first-round travel limit. The BHRV at Humboldt matchup works out to 126 miles by Google Maps ... so I take the state association at their word and say that doesn't happen. That means BHRV has to get a district rematch with Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Likewise, there are no non-district opponents within 125 miles for Heelan (unless Harlan gets in by beating ADM), so they'll have to face Spencer again.
If all the games shake out Friday like I say, which they won't. Of course.
#4 at #1
Spencer at Heelan (district rematch)
ADM at Carroll
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware
Charles City at Xavier
Newton at Clear Creek-Amana
Knoxville at Ballard
Fairfield at Pella
Webster City at Dallas Center-Grimes
#3 at #2
BHRV at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (district rematch)
Winterset at Humboldt
Gilbert at Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence at Solon
Western Dubuque at Davenport Assumption
Norwalk at Bondurant-Farrar
Washington at Carlisle
Greene County at Creston
Tops in 1A Is Pretty Darn Good
Friday brought one of the most anticipated high school football matchups of the year when Iowa City Regina came to Cedar Rapids to take on Xavier. When the schedule came out last February, lots of people circled this date on their calendars. After all, Regina was riding a 56-game winning streak at the end of 2013, and had won four straight state titles (2A in 2010 and 2011, 1A in 2012 and 2013). Xavier was one of eastern Iowa's strongest 4A programs over the past several years, with a state title of their own in 2006 and back-to-back appearances in the championship game in 2012 and 2013.
So then Regina went out and dropped their season opener to Solon (another 3A program taking on the 1A Regals), ending the winning streak and taking some of the luster off this October game. Xavier also dropped their opener, but since it was to defending 4A state champ Dowling, it was pretty much expected. A bigger surprise was the Saints' district loss to Western Dubuque a couple of weeks ago, so both contestants took quite a bit of the hype off this game well before it actually arrived.
And yet ... Regina has been asking bigger programs to play them on the field for years, and with the exception of Solon, has always been denied. After their season-opening loss, the Regals have rolled through the rest of their schedule pretty much unchallenged. Of course everyone knows former Iowa and NFL tight end Marv Cook leads the coaching staff ... he's gone 95-6 over seven-plus years as head coach there (and four of those six losses were to Solon!). His son Drew is the quarterback, a 6 foot 5 inch athlete with good speed and a great touch on throwing the ball. Jake Brinkman is a fantastic athlete at running back and linebacker. Nick Phillips is a speedy receiver/returner who also gets some touches at running back, averaging nearly 18 yards a carry. And Michael Adam is a sturdy linebacker with a great nose for the ball. Three of those four guys would play huge roles in the game against Xavier.
You could tell from the outset it was going to be a well-matched contest. Both teams traded possessions through the first half, with the edge having to go to Regina. Xavier did pick off Cook for his first interception of the season, but were unable to get points on the drive when they missed a 28-yard field goal into the breeze. The Regals got on the board in the second quarter with a seven-play drive; Cook had a great run to get the bulk of the yards, then a great throw-and-catch (by Nathan Stenger) set up Cook for a 2-yard dive for the score. Xavier's defense did stand up Cook on the run - twice - but he kept the legs driving and finally got in.
In the second half, Regina kept moving field position in their favor but the Saints defense kept making the key stops. The Xavier offense finally got a drive going early in the fourth. Starting at the 20, Xavier moved the ball down the field, picking up three first downs as they drove into Regina territory. Facing a 4th and 3 at the 25, the Saints showed a tight short-yardage formation, but Bryce Schulte dropped back and threw to Joe Welch near the left sideline. The Regal defender went for the ball and missed, and Welch took it all the way to tie the game at 7.
Regina responded on the next play from scrimmage. Xavier sent a blitz, which they did a lot throughout the game. Brinkman - who had only 9 yards rushing in the first three quarters - managed to get past the wave of blitzers, then found nobody else left to stop him. He ran 71 yards for the score and instantly put Regina back in the lead.
After the Saints were unable to answer with their next possession, Brinkman started the next Regina drive with a 39-yard run, going from 9 yards rushing to 119 yards in two carries. Cook later found Eric Bracken for 39 yards on the Xavier sideline at the two, with Bracken making a tremendous catch and coming down with the ball even though Caleb Billick was all over him. Cook took it in on the next play, and it was 21-7 Regina. That turned out to be the final score.
The Regal players were humble and effusive in their praise of Xavier afterwards, repeating the fact that almost all the other big schools in the area turned down offers to play Regina. That's pretty easy to do when you go to Xavier and take a win away, but it's a fair point. The fact is, regardless of the class they play in, Regina is a really good team with really good, tough athletes. Adam was all over the field making stops. Stenger and Bracken made some really great, athletic catches, and Brinkman came through when it mattered, even though he'd been completely neutralized for three quarters.
Xavier had some fine performances as well. I was amazed by a couple of catches - Noah Clasen hung on to the ball as he was drilled by a tackler (that was, unfortunately, the drive that ended with the missed field goal). Nick Stark and Thomas Ickes had incredible catches right in front of the Xavier bench. Give credit to Schulte, who threw very well on the night against a pretty sturdy Regina defense.
As we move to the final game of the regular season, a few takeaways from what I've seen so far. Xavier is a good team. Not great, but good and solid. The defense is really, really good. They could make the difference in some of the upcoming playoff games. After giving up 24 points to Dowling (remember, two of those touchdowns came on short fields after interceptions), the Saints have allowed 6, 0, 3, 6, 7, and 12 points before the 21 scored by Regina (and 12 of those points, against Maquoketa and Wahlert, came against the second team defense). They are good.
I have reservations about Xavier's offense, though. They've proven they can dominate teams that don't measure up, with points and yardage explosions against Central DeWitt, Maquoketa and Wahlert. However, they have been less successful against quality defenses, struggling to pick up yards on the ground against Dowling, Western Dubuque and now Regina. Solon is the outlier here, as the Saints did have a pretty good showing offensively, but even then 7 of Xavier's 28 points came via the defense on an interception return.
So can the offensive line get a solid running game going against quality teams once the playoffs arrive? That's the real question I have. Once you get to the third round, or even, possibly, the second this year in eastern Iowa, you're looking at some pretty darn good teams. It's going to be a real challenge for Xavier to step up and make their way to the semifinals in the Dome this year. It's not out of the question, but they'll have to prove they can run the ball against tough defenses.
Xavier plays Marion this week, a Marion squad that is on a 7-game losing streak. The Indians don't get blown out or give up a lot of points, but they have trouble scoring. If Xavier, Solon and Western Dubuque all win on Friday, it's a three-way tie for the District 4 title at 5-1. Should Xavier beat Marion by at least 2 points, there's no way Solon can catch them on the points tiebreaker, so the way looks pretty clear for a district crown for Xavier.
Looking at the rest of the probable playoff field, it looks like Charles City would be a likely opponent for Xavier in the first round on October 29. Charles City are no slouches - they've beaten Decorah this year, and lost to playoff qualifiers West Delaware by 7 and Independence by 2. Should the Saints advance to the next round, they might be looking at Waverly-Shell Rock, or last year's state runner-up Washington, or possible rematches against Western Dubuque or Davenport Assumption, or maybe even Solon. None of those are going to be easy. Getting to the third round means facing another district winner, like West Delaware or Clear Creek-Amana or even Pella, or a team that knocked off one of those titleists (Solon here, maybe - the Spartans are playing really good football right now).
So, folks, like I said earlier this season ... it's not going to be the case for Xavier to stroll their way into Class 3A and walk away with the trophy. If they do happen to win the state title, they are going to have to earn it. The road even to the semifinals looks very, very tough, especially now that the Saints have revealed some offensive weaknesses in this years' team. The next couple of weeks should show just how much grit and determination these kids have in them.
So then Regina went out and dropped their season opener to Solon (another 3A program taking on the 1A Regals), ending the winning streak and taking some of the luster off this October game. Xavier also dropped their opener, but since it was to defending 4A state champ Dowling, it was pretty much expected. A bigger surprise was the Saints' district loss to Western Dubuque a couple of weeks ago, so both contestants took quite a bit of the hype off this game well before it actually arrived.
And yet ... Regina has been asking bigger programs to play them on the field for years, and with the exception of Solon, has always been denied. After their season-opening loss, the Regals have rolled through the rest of their schedule pretty much unchallenged. Of course everyone knows former Iowa and NFL tight end Marv Cook leads the coaching staff ... he's gone 95-6 over seven-plus years as head coach there (and four of those six losses were to Solon!). His son Drew is the quarterback, a 6 foot 5 inch athlete with good speed and a great touch on throwing the ball. Jake Brinkman is a fantastic athlete at running back and linebacker. Nick Phillips is a speedy receiver/returner who also gets some touches at running back, averaging nearly 18 yards a carry. And Michael Adam is a sturdy linebacker with a great nose for the ball. Three of those four guys would play huge roles in the game against Xavier.
You could tell from the outset it was going to be a well-matched contest. Both teams traded possessions through the first half, with the edge having to go to Regina. Xavier did pick off Cook for his first interception of the season, but were unable to get points on the drive when they missed a 28-yard field goal into the breeze. The Regals got on the board in the second quarter with a seven-play drive; Cook had a great run to get the bulk of the yards, then a great throw-and-catch (by Nathan Stenger) set up Cook for a 2-yard dive for the score. Xavier's defense did stand up Cook on the run - twice - but he kept the legs driving and finally got in.
In the second half, Regina kept moving field position in their favor but the Saints defense kept making the key stops. The Xavier offense finally got a drive going early in the fourth. Starting at the 20, Xavier moved the ball down the field, picking up three first downs as they drove into Regina territory. Facing a 4th and 3 at the 25, the Saints showed a tight short-yardage formation, but Bryce Schulte dropped back and threw to Joe Welch near the left sideline. The Regal defender went for the ball and missed, and Welch took it all the way to tie the game at 7.
Regina responded on the next play from scrimmage. Xavier sent a blitz, which they did a lot throughout the game. Brinkman - who had only 9 yards rushing in the first three quarters - managed to get past the wave of blitzers, then found nobody else left to stop him. He ran 71 yards for the score and instantly put Regina back in the lead.
After the Saints were unable to answer with their next possession, Brinkman started the next Regina drive with a 39-yard run, going from 9 yards rushing to 119 yards in two carries. Cook later found Eric Bracken for 39 yards on the Xavier sideline at the two, with Bracken making a tremendous catch and coming down with the ball even though Caleb Billick was all over him. Cook took it in on the next play, and it was 21-7 Regina. That turned out to be the final score.
The Regal players were humble and effusive in their praise of Xavier afterwards, repeating the fact that almost all the other big schools in the area turned down offers to play Regina. That's pretty easy to do when you go to Xavier and take a win away, but it's a fair point. The fact is, regardless of the class they play in, Regina is a really good team with really good, tough athletes. Adam was all over the field making stops. Stenger and Bracken made some really great, athletic catches, and Brinkman came through when it mattered, even though he'd been completely neutralized for three quarters.
Xavier had some fine performances as well. I was amazed by a couple of catches - Noah Clasen hung on to the ball as he was drilled by a tackler (that was, unfortunately, the drive that ended with the missed field goal). Nick Stark and Thomas Ickes had incredible catches right in front of the Xavier bench. Give credit to Schulte, who threw very well on the night against a pretty sturdy Regina defense.
As we move to the final game of the regular season, a few takeaways from what I've seen so far. Xavier is a good team. Not great, but good and solid. The defense is really, really good. They could make the difference in some of the upcoming playoff games. After giving up 24 points to Dowling (remember, two of those touchdowns came on short fields after interceptions), the Saints have allowed 6, 0, 3, 6, 7, and 12 points before the 21 scored by Regina (and 12 of those points, against Maquoketa and Wahlert, came against the second team defense). They are good.
I have reservations about Xavier's offense, though. They've proven they can dominate teams that don't measure up, with points and yardage explosions against Central DeWitt, Maquoketa and Wahlert. However, they have been less successful against quality defenses, struggling to pick up yards on the ground against Dowling, Western Dubuque and now Regina. Solon is the outlier here, as the Saints did have a pretty good showing offensively, but even then 7 of Xavier's 28 points came via the defense on an interception return.
So can the offensive line get a solid running game going against quality teams once the playoffs arrive? That's the real question I have. Once you get to the third round, or even, possibly, the second this year in eastern Iowa, you're looking at some pretty darn good teams. It's going to be a real challenge for Xavier to step up and make their way to the semifinals in the Dome this year. It's not out of the question, but they'll have to prove they can run the ball against tough defenses.
Xavier plays Marion this week, a Marion squad that is on a 7-game losing streak. The Indians don't get blown out or give up a lot of points, but they have trouble scoring. If Xavier, Solon and Western Dubuque all win on Friday, it's a three-way tie for the District 4 title at 5-1. Should Xavier beat Marion by at least 2 points, there's no way Solon can catch them on the points tiebreaker, so the way looks pretty clear for a district crown for Xavier.
Looking at the rest of the probable playoff field, it looks like Charles City would be a likely opponent for Xavier in the first round on October 29. Charles City are no slouches - they've beaten Decorah this year, and lost to playoff qualifiers West Delaware by 7 and Independence by 2. Should the Saints advance to the next round, they might be looking at Waverly-Shell Rock, or last year's state runner-up Washington, or possible rematches against Western Dubuque or Davenport Assumption, or maybe even Solon. None of those are going to be easy. Getting to the third round means facing another district winner, like West Delaware or Clear Creek-Amana or even Pella, or a team that knocked off one of those titleists (Solon here, maybe - the Spartans are playing really good football right now).
So, folks, like I said earlier this season ... it's not going to be the case for Xavier to stroll their way into Class 3A and walk away with the trophy. If they do happen to win the state title, they are going to have to earn it. The road even to the semifinals looks very, very tough, especially now that the Saints have revealed some offensive weaknesses in this years' team. The next couple of weeks should show just how much grit and determination these kids have in them.
Tuesday, October 14, 2014
Guessing 4A - Because Why Not?
Just the eastern side, that is. These are the schools I'm used to, back in the halcyon days of the MVC and the MAC, back when playoff points could be toted up in a spreadsheet, way back last year.
Anyway, just two games left, so the districts are sort of settling out. One 4A district already has their four playoff teams decided, with only placement/seeding left. True, 4A is a bit weird, since they have only five or six teams per district instead of the usual seven or eight. Also, I don't think the 125-mile travel restriction applies to 4A, nor will the state be bound by the old east/west split. In my figuring, though, if the results I expect hold up, it's an easy thing to keep all the east-siders together for the first round.
Onward ...
District 5
Cedar Rapids Kennedy started 0-6. They have a great shot at making the playoffs. How's that for weird?
Linn-Mar 5-0
Cedar Falls 4-1
CR Kennedy 2-3
Waterloo West 2-3
CR Jefferson 2-3
Waterloo East 0-5
You could flip a coin (or coins) for that three-way tie for third, if Kennedy beats Waterloo West in Week 9. Kennedy will have beaten West, who beat Jeff, who beat Kennedy, so it goes to the points tiebreaker. There is still a lot of movement possible in that area, so any two of these could actually make the playoffs. I say Kennedy and West here, just because Jeff currently trails in that tiebreak.
District 6
Muscatine is the wild card here, with games left against Prairie and City High. Win them both, the Muskies are an easy second place. Lose them both, and just a three-point win over Ottumwa gets them into the playoffs (that's assuming Ottumwa loses to Prairie in Week 9). I say they beat Prairie and lose to City High, so ...
CR Washington 5-0
Iowa City High 3-2
Muscatine 3-2
Prairie 2-3
Ottumwa 2-3
Burlington 0-5
Obviously, if my guesses are wrong, shake ups can occur. If Ottumwa beats Prairie, they probably make it in.
District 7
Maybe somewhat of a question between Pleasant Valley and Hempstead. PV is not quite as strong this season as they have been, and Hempstead has a pretty good team. The only difference is who finishes second and who's in third ... these four playoff teams are already known.
Iowa City West 4-0
Pleasant Valley 3-1
Dubuque Hempstead 2-2
Davenport Central 1-3
Davenport North 0-4
District 8
Not too many questions in this one.
Bettendorf 4-0
North Scott 3-1
Dubuque Senior 2-2
Clinton 1-3
Davenport West 0-4
First-round matchups
It's still 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. The state can mix and match east and west all they want, but the way I see it, these east-side matchups work out just fine for the first round.
#4 at #1 Prairie at Linn-Mar
Waterloo West at CR Washington
Davenport Central at Bettendorf
Clinton at Iowa City West
#3 at #2 CR Kennedy at Iowa City High
Muscatine at Pleasant Valley
Dubuque Hempstead at North Scott
Dubuque Senior at Cedar Falls
Anyway, just two games left, so the districts are sort of settling out. One 4A district already has their four playoff teams decided, with only placement/seeding left. True, 4A is a bit weird, since they have only five or six teams per district instead of the usual seven or eight. Also, I don't think the 125-mile travel restriction applies to 4A, nor will the state be bound by the old east/west split. In my figuring, though, if the results I expect hold up, it's an easy thing to keep all the east-siders together for the first round.
Onward ...
District 5
Cedar Rapids Kennedy started 0-6. They have a great shot at making the playoffs. How's that for weird?
Linn-Mar 5-0
Cedar Falls 4-1
CR Kennedy 2-3
Waterloo West 2-3
CR Jefferson 2-3
Waterloo East 0-5
You could flip a coin (or coins) for that three-way tie for third, if Kennedy beats Waterloo West in Week 9. Kennedy will have beaten West, who beat Jeff, who beat Kennedy, so it goes to the points tiebreaker. There is still a lot of movement possible in that area, so any two of these could actually make the playoffs. I say Kennedy and West here, just because Jeff currently trails in that tiebreak.
District 6
Muscatine is the wild card here, with games left against Prairie and City High. Win them both, the Muskies are an easy second place. Lose them both, and just a three-point win over Ottumwa gets them into the playoffs (that's assuming Ottumwa loses to Prairie in Week 9). I say they beat Prairie and lose to City High, so ...
CR Washington 5-0
Iowa City High 3-2
Muscatine 3-2
Prairie 2-3
Ottumwa 2-3
Burlington 0-5
Obviously, if my guesses are wrong, shake ups can occur. If Ottumwa beats Prairie, they probably make it in.
District 7
Maybe somewhat of a question between Pleasant Valley and Hempstead. PV is not quite as strong this season as they have been, and Hempstead has a pretty good team. The only difference is who finishes second and who's in third ... these four playoff teams are already known.
Iowa City West 4-0
Pleasant Valley 3-1
Dubuque Hempstead 2-2
Davenport Central 1-3
Davenport North 0-4
District 8
Not too many questions in this one.
Bettendorf 4-0
North Scott 3-1
Dubuque Senior 2-2
Clinton 1-3
Davenport West 0-4
First-round matchups
It's still 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. The state can mix and match east and west all they want, but the way I see it, these east-side matchups work out just fine for the first round.
#4 at #1 Prairie at Linn-Mar
Waterloo West at CR Washington
Davenport Central at Bettendorf
Clinton at Iowa City West
#3 at #2 CR Kennedy at Iowa City High
Muscatine at Pleasant Valley
Dubuque Hempstead at North Scott
Dubuque Senior at Cedar Falls
Monday, October 13, 2014
Clip and Save
Okay, my prognosticator skills aren't necessarily world-beating. I did have CR Washington as a good team this year, which not everybody thought. I also didn't think this year's St. Louis Cardinals team was all that great, yet look at them now in the NLCS and challenging for a World Series berth. Yeah, that's why I don't bet.
Anyway, there's only two weeks left in the high school football season. You can actually make some pretty good guesses at to how the districts will shake out and maybe even some playoff pairings, with just two variables to throw in there. So that's what this post is for - to give my "predictions" on how the last two weeks will shake out, and have a look at the possible final district standings in Class 3A. I may do Class 4A later, at least the eastern side, maybe, I dunno.
So, "clip and save" so you can see what a great Nostradamus job I did. Or, more likely, since every season it seems there are always weird results happening over the last two weeks that mess up everybody's expected playoff brackets, you can look back at this in a week or two and hold your sides in laughter at some of the things I thought would happen.
Courage! To the list!
District 1
The interesting game here is Boyden Hull-Rock Valley (henceforth BHRV) and LeMars this Friday. I give BHRV the edge, so the results would be
Sioux City Heelan 6-0
Sergeant Bluff-Luton 5-1
BHRV 4-2
LeMars 2-4
Denison-Schleswig 2-4
Spencer 2-4
Storm Lake 0-6
LeMars should take the fourth playoff spot on the points tiebreaker. If LeMars beats BHRV, they'd leapfrog BHRV into third.
District 2
Carroll and Greene County is somewhat interesting in Week 9, but Carroll ought to win that one.
Carroll 6-0
Humboldt 5-1
Greene County 4-2
Perry 3-3
Webster City 2-4
Boone 1-5
Algona 0-6
District 3
There's a lot up in the air here. Charles City still has to play Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock. I say they lose both. If they pull out a win in one of those games, they've got a shot at a top four finish. Decorah plays West Delaware Week 9, which will probably go to West Delaware, but you should never count out Decorah.
West Delaware 6-0
Waverly-Shell Rock 5-1
Decorah 4-2
Independence 3-3
Charles City 2-4
Vinton-Shellsburg 1-5
Crestwood-Cresco 0-6
District 4
Ah, the one I'm paying attention to. :) I expect Solon to down Western Dubuque this Friday. If they don't, Western Dubuque probably wins the district. If Solon wins, it's a likely three-way tie with Xavier on top and Western Dubuque in third, thanks to points.
Xavier 5-1
Solon 5-1
Western Dubuque 5-1
Dubuque Wahlert 3-3
Central Clinton-DeWitt 2-4
Maquoketa 1-5
Marion 0-6
District 5
Clear Creek-Amana got everyone's attention by thumping Davenport Assumption last week. Assumption now takes on Fairfield and Washington the last two weeks. These results assume two Assumption wins - if Washington takes that game instead, they'll flip-flop.
Clear Creek-Amana 6-0
Davenport Assumption 5-1
Washington 4-2
Fairfield 3-3
Mt. Pleasant 2-4
Ft.Madison 1-5
Keokuk 0-6
District 6
Good luck figuring this one out. I have Grinnell losing out, to Ballard and Gilbert, but either one could go either way. I also think Newton will beat Bondurant-Farrar, but I am in no way certain of that. Grinnell could end up 5-1 instead of 3-3; Ballard could be 4-2, as could Newton, as could B-F ... there's a lot up in the air here.
Newton 5-1
Ballard 5-1
Gilbert 4-2
Grinnell 3-3
Bondurant-Farrar 3-3
Benton 1-5
Nevada 0-6
In this scenario Newton gets first and Grinnell gets fourth thanks to head-to-head results.
District 7
Finally! One without too much drama. Carlisle should beat Chariton, which is the only kinda-sorta tossup I have here.
Pella 6-0
Carlisle 5-1
Norwalk 4-2
Knoxville 3-3
Chariton 2-4
Oskaloosa 1-5
Saydel 0-6
District 8
Dallas Center-Grimes takes on Creston this Friday for the district title, essentially. I say DC-G, but who knows? I also call sort of an upset with Harlan over ADM-Adel in Week 9 - if I'm wrong there, ADM gets in at fourth over Harlan.
Dallas Center-Grimes 6-0
Creston 5-1
Winterset 4-2
Harlan 3-3
ADM-Adel 2-4
Atlantic 1-5
Glenwood 0-6
First-round matchups
Okay, first of all, it's 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. Other than that, the state can make any matchups they want, with the main goal of keeping travel under 125 miles while still mixing up districts. Unfortunately, with the finishes I have set out above, there isn't any way to mix up Districts 1 and 2 in the 2-3 matchups without blowing that mileage limitation. Therefore, I put those two first-round games as district rematches. I just don't see any other way the state can set them up, if they are serious about that 125-mile limit.
#4 at #1 Harlan at Heelan 96 miles
LeMars at Carroll 116 miles
Wahlert at West Delaware 45 miles
Grinnell at Xavier 70-ish miles (route dependent)
Independence at CCA 60 miles
Knoxville at Newton 28 miles
Fairfield at Pella 70 miles
Perry at Dallas Center Grimes 25 miles
#3 at #2 BHRV at Sgt. Bluff Luton (district rematch)
Greene County at Humboldt (district rematch)
Gilbert at Waverly-SR 107 miles
Decorah at Solon 123 miles (pushing that limit)
Western Dub at Assumption 79 miles
(Davenport is the outlier here, with WDub the only place to go)
Winterset at Ballard 62 miles
Washington at Carlisle 103 miles
Norwalk at Creston 66 miles
Anyway, there's only two weeks left in the high school football season. You can actually make some pretty good guesses at to how the districts will shake out and maybe even some playoff pairings, with just two variables to throw in there. So that's what this post is for - to give my "predictions" on how the last two weeks will shake out, and have a look at the possible final district standings in Class 3A. I may do Class 4A later, at least the eastern side, maybe, I dunno.
So, "clip and save" so you can see what a great Nostradamus job I did. Or, more likely, since every season it seems there are always weird results happening over the last two weeks that mess up everybody's expected playoff brackets, you can look back at this in a week or two and hold your sides in laughter at some of the things I thought would happen.
Courage! To the list!
District 1
The interesting game here is Boyden Hull-Rock Valley (henceforth BHRV) and LeMars this Friday. I give BHRV the edge, so the results would be
Sioux City Heelan 6-0
Sergeant Bluff-Luton 5-1
BHRV 4-2
LeMars 2-4
Denison-Schleswig 2-4
Spencer 2-4
Storm Lake 0-6
LeMars should take the fourth playoff spot on the points tiebreaker. If LeMars beats BHRV, they'd leapfrog BHRV into third.
District 2
Carroll and Greene County is somewhat interesting in Week 9, but Carroll ought to win that one.
Carroll 6-0
Humboldt 5-1
Greene County 4-2
Perry 3-3
Webster City 2-4
Boone 1-5
Algona 0-6
District 3
There's a lot up in the air here. Charles City still has to play Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock. I say they lose both. If they pull out a win in one of those games, they've got a shot at a top four finish. Decorah plays West Delaware Week 9, which will probably go to West Delaware, but you should never count out Decorah.
West Delaware 6-0
Waverly-Shell Rock 5-1
Decorah 4-2
Independence 3-3
Charles City 2-4
Vinton-Shellsburg 1-5
Crestwood-Cresco 0-6
District 4
Ah, the one I'm paying attention to. :) I expect Solon to down Western Dubuque this Friday. If they don't, Western Dubuque probably wins the district. If Solon wins, it's a likely three-way tie with Xavier on top and Western Dubuque in third, thanks to points.
Xavier 5-1
Solon 5-1
Western Dubuque 5-1
Dubuque Wahlert 3-3
Central Clinton-DeWitt 2-4
Maquoketa 1-5
Marion 0-6
District 5
Clear Creek-Amana got everyone's attention by thumping Davenport Assumption last week. Assumption now takes on Fairfield and Washington the last two weeks. These results assume two Assumption wins - if Washington takes that game instead, they'll flip-flop.
Clear Creek-Amana 6-0
Davenport Assumption 5-1
Washington 4-2
Fairfield 3-3
Mt. Pleasant 2-4
Ft.Madison 1-5
Keokuk 0-6
District 6
Good luck figuring this one out. I have Grinnell losing out, to Ballard and Gilbert, but either one could go either way. I also think Newton will beat Bondurant-Farrar, but I am in no way certain of that. Grinnell could end up 5-1 instead of 3-3; Ballard could be 4-2, as could Newton, as could B-F ... there's a lot up in the air here.
Newton 5-1
Ballard 5-1
Gilbert 4-2
Grinnell 3-3
Bondurant-Farrar 3-3
Benton 1-5
Nevada 0-6
In this scenario Newton gets first and Grinnell gets fourth thanks to head-to-head results.
District 7
Finally! One without too much drama. Carlisle should beat Chariton, which is the only kinda-sorta tossup I have here.
Pella 6-0
Carlisle 5-1
Norwalk 4-2
Knoxville 3-3
Chariton 2-4
Oskaloosa 1-5
Saydel 0-6
District 8
Dallas Center-Grimes takes on Creston this Friday for the district title, essentially. I say DC-G, but who knows? I also call sort of an upset with Harlan over ADM-Adel in Week 9 - if I'm wrong there, ADM gets in at fourth over Harlan.
Dallas Center-Grimes 6-0
Creston 5-1
Winterset 4-2
Harlan 3-3
ADM-Adel 2-4
Atlantic 1-5
Glenwood 0-6
First-round matchups
Okay, first of all, it's 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. Other than that, the state can make any matchups they want, with the main goal of keeping travel under 125 miles while still mixing up districts. Unfortunately, with the finishes I have set out above, there isn't any way to mix up Districts 1 and 2 in the 2-3 matchups without blowing that mileage limitation. Therefore, I put those two first-round games as district rematches. I just don't see any other way the state can set them up, if they are serious about that 125-mile limit.
#4 at #1 Harlan at Heelan 96 miles
LeMars at Carroll 116 miles
Wahlert at West Delaware 45 miles
Grinnell at Xavier 70-ish miles (route dependent)
Independence at CCA 60 miles
Knoxville at Newton 28 miles
Fairfield at Pella 70 miles
Perry at Dallas Center Grimes 25 miles
#3 at #2 BHRV at Sgt. Bluff Luton (district rematch)
Greene County at Humboldt (district rematch)
Gilbert at Waverly-SR 107 miles
Decorah at Solon 123 miles (pushing that limit)
Western Dub at Assumption 79 miles
(Davenport is the outlier here, with WDub the only place to go)
Winterset at Ballard 62 miles
Washington at Carlisle 103 miles
Norwalk at Creston 66 miles
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