As I usually do this time of year, here's my spreadsheet-assisted, mathematically challenged, pen-and-paper enhanced 4A Playoff Picture Explainer! I can't promise there are no mistakes - I've gone over this a couple of times, but I'm only human, darn it, and I sure could have missed something somewhere.
I've tried to go through all the possibilities over the final two weeks of the Iowa high school football season (at least in 4A - this took me long enough, somebody's going to have to pay me to do more classes) and look at how things might shake out for playoff qualifying.
A reminder: the top two finishers in each district automatically make the playoffs, along with four at-large teams determined by RPI. Since RPI is changing with every week, I'm not going to get into that - I'm just looking at who could finish in the top two, or who could be involved in ties for those two spots. Ties (when they can't be resolved by head-to-head) will also be determined by RPI, so I'm not getting into that at this time, either.
DISTRICT 1
Webster City takes the district with a win. The only way they could miss the playoffs is by losing out while Denison/Schleswig wins out AND either Le Mars or Spencer wins out.
Spencer can win the district by winning out plus Webster City losing out. They're guaranteed a playoff spot with a win over Le Mars plus a loss by Denison/Schleswig.
Le Mars can take the district title by winning out plus Webster City losing out. They are in the playoffs if they win out. They'll also almost certainly be in with a win over Spencer plus a loss by Fort Dodge (there are some tie possibilities there, though).
Fort Dodge is in the playoffs by winning out plus Spencer losing out.
Denison/Schleswig is in the playoffs if (barring a couple of tie possibilities here):
- They win out
- Webster City loses out
- Either Le Mars wins out and Spencer loses out, or the reverse (Spencer wins out, Le Mars loses out)
Storm Lake has been eliminated.
Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go indicates Le Mars and Denison/Schleswig will be in trouble with any tie situation:
- Spencer .6059
- Webster City .5736
- Fort Dodge .5378
- Le Mars .5036
- Denison/Schleswig .4902
DISTRICT 2
Decorah takes the district with a win over Waverly-Shell Rock in Week 9. The Vikings are guaranteed a playoff spot with a Western Dubuque loss.
Waverly Shell-Rock can win the district with a win over Decorah plus a Western Dubuque loss. They are in the playoffs if they beat Western Dubuque.
Western Dubuque can take the district title by winning out plus Decorah losing out. The Bobcats are probably in if they win out, although there are some tie scenarios if Decorah beats Waterloo East and loses to Waverly-Shell Rock. They also will be in if Waverly-Shell Rock loses out (there are some ties involving Mason City here, but Mason City probably can't get high enough in the RPI to knock Western Dubuque out).
Mason City has a shot to get involved in a tie if they win out and Waverly-Shell Rock loses out, but as mentioned, their RPI will probably doom them. They're basically eliminated.
Waterloo East and Marion have been eliminated.
Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:
- Waverly-Shell Rock .6217
- Decorah .5587
- Western Dubuque .5152
- Mason City .4537
DISTRICT 3
North Scott takes the title with a win over Fort Madison. They're assured a playoff spot with a win (there's a couple of three-way tie scenarios but they've got RPI locked up).
Fort Madison can win the district by winning out plus a Liberty loss. They're almost certainly in the playoffs with a win plus losses by both Burlington and Liberty.
Burlington takes the district if they win out and North Scott loses out. They lock up a playoff spot by winning out.
Iowa City Liberty can win the district if they win out and North Scott loses out. They are in the playoffs with a win plus losses by Burlington and Fort Madison.
Mount Pleasant and Clinton have been eliminated.
Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:
- North Scott .6890
- Fort Madison .6435
- Burlington .5334
- Iowa City Liberty .4306
DISTRICT 4
Xavier will earn their seventh district title in the past eight years with a win. The only way they can miss the playoffs is by losing out plus Newton and Pella both winning out.
Pella can win the district by winning out plus Xavier losing out. They lock up a playoff spot by winning out, or by beating Clear Creek Amana plus a CR Washington loss to Oskaloosa (unless Xavier loses out, then some tie scenarios develop).
Clear Creek Amana can take the district title by winning out plus Xavier losing out. They're in the playoffs with a win over Pella plus a loss by Newton. There's a lot of tie scenarios if either Newton or CR Wash win out, although Washington would have little chance in the RPI.
Newton has a shot to win the district championship by winning out plus both Xavier and Pella losing out. They have some chances to get a playoff spot by winning out, but they'll need a variety of help (for example, Xavier losing to Oskaloosa while Pella wins out, or Pella losing out while Xavier beats Oskaloosa, and that's not considering the tie scenarios ... it gets a bit complicated).
Cedar Rapids Washington can get a playoff spot by winning out plus Clear Creek Amana losing out plus a Xavier win. There's a variety of tie scenarios, too, but the RPI is not Washington's friend.
Oskaloosa has been eliminated.
Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:
- Xavier .6781
- Clear Creek Amana .6415
- Newton .6106
- Pella .5198
- CR Washington .4828
DISTRICT 5
Norwalk takes the district with a win over Bondurant-Farrar in Week 9. The worst that can happen with any win is a playoff tie scenario; Norwalk locks up a playoff spot with losses by both Carlisle and Indianola.
Bondurant-Farrar can win the district by winning out, or with a win over Norwalk coupled with an Indianola loss to Boone. If they beat Indianola, they are in the playoffs. The Bluejays are out of the playoffs with two losses.
Indianola, somewhat surprisingly, needs the most help here. They get the district title by winning out plus Norwalk losing out. They are in the playoffs if Bondurant-Farrar loses out. There are some playoff spot tie scenarios in other situations, which could work out with Indianola's RPI ... but if either Bondurant-Farrar or Norwalk wins a game, Indianola might be in some trouble.
Carlisle has a shot to get involved in a tie if they win out plus help, but their RPI means they're basically eliminated.
Perry and Boone have been eliminated.
Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:
- Bondurant-Farrar .6492
- Indianola .6319
- Norwalk .6240
- Carlisle .5275
DISTRICT 6
Winterset can win the district by beating Lewis Central Week 9. They lock up a playoff spot with a win or a Dallas Center-Grimes loss.
Lewis Central takes the district with a win over Winterset plus a Dallas Center-Grimes loss. They guarantee a spot in the playoffs by defeating Dallas Center-Grimes.
Dallas Center-Grimes can win the district by winning out plus Winterset losing out. They can earn a playoff spot by winning out plus Lewis Central losing out, or if Lewis Central loses out and Glenwood loses.
Glenwood might get into a three-way tie for the second playoff spot by winning out, with Lewis Central losing out and Dallas Center-Grimes losing, but because of RPI they are basically eliminated.
Des Moines Hoover and Council Bluffs Thomas Jefferson have been eliminated.
Current RPIs with 2 weeks to go:
- Winterset .6182
- Lewis Central .5707
- Glenwood .4853
- Dallas Center-Grimes .3753
