I knew things would happen over the last couple of weeks that were unexpected. I knew it! And I was right! Does that make me truly psychic? Or is the pesky fact that I didn't predict exactly what would happen count me out there? Details, details ...
Anyway, we had unusual results like Independence beating (an injury- and sickness-depleted) West Delaware, Charles City knocking off Decorah (who may not even make the playoffs now), and Solon absolutely destroying Western Dubuque. Who knows what this week might bring?
So, on to my updated projections:
District 1
The only change here is I think Spencer might take the tiebreaker for the fourth spot, over Le Mars and Denison-Schleswig. It'll be hard to know for sure until after Friday.
Sioux City Heelan
Sergeant Bluff-Luton
BHRV
Spencer
District 2
Here it looks like Webster City sneaks into the fourth spot over Perry.
Carroll
Humboldt
Greene County
Webster City
District 3
So Charles City knocked off Decorah and Independence beat West Delaware. Naturally, that means if Charles City can beat Waverly-Shell Rock and Decorah is able to beat West Delaware (who might still be without their top running back), we'll have five teams tied at 4-2. That would probably mean Decorah gets the four spot over Independence - who are looking at their first playoff appearance since 1985.
West Delaware (head to head over W-SR)
Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence
Charles City (head to head over Decorah)
District 4
No surprises here. As long as Xavier defeats Marion by 2 points or more, Solon can't catch them for the points tiebreaker.
Xavier (points tiebreaker over Solon and W. Dubuque)
Solon (points tiebreaker over W. Dubuque)
Western Dubuque
Dubuque Wahlert
District 5
If Washington (last year's state runner-up) is able to beat Assumption Friday, they'll trade the second and third spots.
Clear Creek-Amana
Davenport Assumption
Washington
Fairfield
District 6
Bondurant-Farrar did a lot for themselves with a win over Newton last week. They actually have a shot to win the district. Of course, if Grinnell upsets Ballard, this is another district with a five-way tie at 4-2. If they don't, they miss the playoffs entirely.
Ballard
Bondurant-Farrar (head to head over Gilbert and Newton)
Gilbert (head to head over Newton)
Newton
District 7
The third and fourth places will be determined by the Norwalk-Knoxville game Friday.
Pella
Carlisle
Norwalk
Knoxville
District 8
Friday's game between ADM and Harlan is basically a play-in game for the fourth spot.
Dallas Center-Grimes
Creston
Winterset
ADM-Adel/Harlan
First-round matchups
I made a few adjustments for the 125-mile first-round travel limit. The BHRV at Humboldt matchup works out to 126 miles by Google Maps ... so I take the state association at their word and say that doesn't happen. That means BHRV has to get a district rematch with Sergeant Bluff-Luton. Likewise, there are no non-district opponents within 125 miles for Heelan (unless Harlan gets in by beating ADM), so they'll have to face Spencer again.
If all the games shake out Friday like I say, which they won't. Of course.
#4 at #1
Spencer at Heelan (district rematch)
ADM at Carroll
Dubuque Wahlert at West Delaware
Charles City at Xavier
Newton at Clear Creek-Amana
Knoxville at Ballard
Fairfield at Pella
Webster City at Dallas Center-Grimes
#3 at #2
BHRV at Sergeant Bluff-Luton (district rematch)
Winterset at Humboldt
Gilbert at Waverly-Shell Rock
Independence at Solon
Western Dubuque at Davenport Assumption
Norwalk at Bondurant-Farrar
Washington at Carlisle
Greene County at Creston
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