Okay, my prognosticator skills aren't necessarily world-beating. I did have CR Washington as a good team this year, which not everybody thought. I also didn't think this year's St. Louis Cardinals team was all that great, yet look at them now in the NLCS and challenging for a World Series berth. Yeah, that's why I don't bet.
Anyway, there's only two weeks left in the high school football season. You can actually make some pretty good guesses at to how the districts will shake out and maybe even some playoff pairings, with just two variables to throw in there. So that's what this post is for - to give my "predictions" on how the last two weeks will shake out, and have a look at the possible final district standings in Class 3A. I may do Class 4A later, at least the eastern side, maybe, I dunno.
So, "clip and save" so you can see what a great Nostradamus job I did. Or, more likely, since every season it seems there are always weird results happening over the last two weeks that mess up everybody's expected playoff brackets, you can look back at this in a week or two and hold your sides in laughter at some of the things I thought would happen.
Courage! To the list!
District 1
The interesting game here is Boyden Hull-Rock Valley (henceforth BHRV) and LeMars this Friday. I give BHRV the edge, so the results would be
Sioux City Heelan 6-0
Sergeant Bluff-Luton 5-1
BHRV 4-2
LeMars 2-4
Denison-Schleswig 2-4
Spencer 2-4
Storm Lake 0-6
LeMars should take the fourth playoff spot on the points tiebreaker. If LeMars beats BHRV, they'd leapfrog BHRV into third.
District 2
Carroll and Greene County is somewhat interesting in Week 9, but Carroll ought to win that one.
Carroll 6-0
Humboldt 5-1
Greene County 4-2
Perry 3-3
Webster City 2-4
Boone 1-5
Algona 0-6
District 3
There's a lot up in the air here. Charles City still has to play Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock. I say they lose both. If they pull out a win in one of those games, they've got a shot at a top four finish. Decorah plays West Delaware Week 9, which will probably go to West Delaware, but you should never count out Decorah.
West Delaware 6-0
Waverly-Shell Rock 5-1
Decorah 4-2
Independence 3-3
Charles City 2-4
Vinton-Shellsburg 1-5
Crestwood-Cresco 0-6
District 4
Ah, the one I'm paying attention to. :) I expect Solon to down Western Dubuque this Friday. If they don't, Western Dubuque probably wins the district. If Solon wins, it's a likely three-way tie with Xavier on top and Western Dubuque in third, thanks to points.
Xavier 5-1
Solon 5-1
Western Dubuque 5-1
Dubuque Wahlert 3-3
Central Clinton-DeWitt 2-4
Maquoketa 1-5
Marion 0-6
District 5
Clear Creek-Amana got everyone's attention by thumping Davenport Assumption last week. Assumption now takes on Fairfield and Washington the last two weeks. These results assume two Assumption wins - if Washington takes that game instead, they'll flip-flop.
Clear Creek-Amana 6-0
Davenport Assumption 5-1
Washington 4-2
Fairfield 3-3
Mt. Pleasant 2-4
Ft.Madison 1-5
Keokuk 0-6
District 6
Good luck figuring this one out. I have Grinnell losing out, to Ballard and Gilbert, but either one could go either way. I also think Newton will beat Bondurant-Farrar, but I am in no way certain of that. Grinnell could end up 5-1 instead of 3-3; Ballard could be 4-2, as could Newton, as could B-F ... there's a lot up in the air here.
Newton 5-1
Ballard 5-1
Gilbert 4-2
Grinnell 3-3
Bondurant-Farrar 3-3
Benton 1-5
Nevada 0-6
In this scenario Newton gets first and Grinnell gets fourth thanks to head-to-head results.
District 7
Finally! One without too much drama. Carlisle should beat Chariton, which is the only kinda-sorta tossup I have here.
Pella 6-0
Carlisle 5-1
Norwalk 4-2
Knoxville 3-3
Chariton 2-4
Oskaloosa 1-5
Saydel 0-6
District 8
Dallas Center-Grimes takes on Creston this Friday for the district title, essentially. I say DC-G, but who knows? I also call sort of an upset with Harlan over ADM-Adel in Week 9 - if I'm wrong there, ADM gets in at fourth over Harlan.
Dallas Center-Grimes 6-0
Creston 5-1
Winterset 4-2
Harlan 3-3
ADM-Adel 2-4
Atlantic 1-5
Glenwood 0-6
First-round matchups
Okay, first of all, it's 4th place at 1st place, and 3rd place at 2nd place. Other than that, the state can make any matchups they want, with the main goal of keeping travel under 125 miles while still mixing up districts. Unfortunately, with the finishes I have set out above, there isn't any way to mix up Districts 1 and 2 in the 2-3 matchups without blowing that mileage limitation. Therefore, I put those two first-round games as district rematches. I just don't see any other way the state can set them up, if they are serious about that 125-mile limit.
#4 at #1 Harlan at Heelan 96 miles
LeMars at Carroll 116 miles
Wahlert at West Delaware 45 miles
Grinnell at Xavier 70-ish miles (route dependent)
Independence at CCA 60 miles
Knoxville at Newton 28 miles
Fairfield at Pella 70 miles
Perry at Dallas Center Grimes 25 miles
#3 at #2 BHRV at Sgt. Bluff Luton (district rematch)
Greene County at Humboldt (district rematch)
Gilbert at Waverly-SR 107 miles
Decorah at Solon 123 miles (pushing that limit)
Western Dub at Assumption 79 miles
(Davenport is the outlier here, with WDub the only place to go)
Winterset at Ballard 62 miles
Washington at Carlisle 103 miles
Norwalk at Creston 66 miles
No comments:
Post a Comment