The Playoff Picture Begins to Coalesce

Yes, I said coalesce. I went there. Brought out the big vocab words today ...

I said I'd look at the District 4 playoff picture, and I thought I'd do that before this week's games. Things are beginning to come together with three weeks left in the season, so we can at least start with the projections and the guessing and the rankings and the HOYven-glaven ...

It looks like three teams have separated themselves out for the top three spots - Western Dubuque, Xavier and Solon. Solon's only district loss (only loss period) is to Xavier, and they have looked really good in recent weeks. Xavier's only district loss is to Western Dubuque. Western Dubuque has yet to lose a district game, but they still have to play Solon. The battle for the fourth spot is basically between Dubuque Wahlert and Central DeWitt. Maquoketa and Marion have practically no shot at getting into the top four.

First, a look back. Xavier dominated everybody in district play before that 7-6 loss to Western Dubuque last week. They beat Solon by 28 (admittedly Solon had some key players hurt/sick that week), and crushed Central DeWitt and Maquoketa. Solon struggled against Marion, but definitively beat last year's runner-up Washington and flattened Central DeWitt. Western Dubuque cruised over Maquoketa and had to go to overtime against Wahlert. Wahlert had to use a last-second score to beat Central DeWitt, beat Maquoketa easily, then suffered the overtime loss to the Bobcats and a crushing defeat to Davenport Assumption last week. Central DeWitt had the close loss to Wahlert and a 6-point win over Marion along with two thumpings at the hands of Xavier and Solon.

What's yet to come? As mentioned, the big game affecting the final standings will be October 17 when Solon travels to Epworth to take on the Bobcats. A Western Dubuque win puts them in the driver's seat for the district title, but a Solon win sets up a possible three-way tie for the top. Xavier has Wahlert this week (and given recent history, you have to expect the Saints to bounce back in a big way in response to last week's loss - if they don't win big, that would almost be a surprise) and Marion, which has yet to win a district game. Solon plays Maquoketa, Western Dubuque and Wahlert. Western Dubuque has Marion, Solon and Central DeWitt.

Given how the first six weeks have gone, a logical observer might expect Xavier to win their two district games and finish 5-1 in District 4. Solon would be expected to defeat Maquoketa and Wahlert, and Western Dubuque would be favored against Marion and Central DeWitt. So ... if Solon defeats the Bobcats, all three teams would finish 5-1. Xavier has defeated Solon, Western Dubuque has defeated Xavier, and Solon would have defeated Western Dubuque. That means the district rankings go to the 13-point tiebreaker.

For those used to the 4A playoff point system who might not be familiar with the tiebreaker, here's how it works. Score margins of district games are calculated with a cap of +13 or -13 (if you win or lose by more than 13 points, it just counts as 13 points; that's supposed to prevent running up the score). The total margin is divided by the number of district games, and that average is used to break ties between more than two teams (because with two you always have head-to-head results). Currently Xavier's tiebreaker average is 9.5. The highest Solon can possibly get, by winning their three remaining games by 13 or more points, is 8.67. If Western Dubuque loses a game - the only way they'd be involved in a three-way tie - the best they can do is 6.67. So, should Xavier defeat both Wahlert and Marion by at least 8 points apiece, they'll finish with a tiebreaker average of no worse than 8.83. With a Western Dubuque loss to Solon, that gives Xavier the district title.

Now, if Western Dubuque defeats Solon (as well as Marion and Central DeWitt), they win the district outright. Solon would have 2 district losses and likely drop to third. If Western Dubuque beats Solon but loses to, say, Central DeWitt, the Bobcats win a tie with Xavier due to head-to-head.

So next week's game looms pretty large. If Solon is able to take that game on the road at Epworth, the strongest likelihood is Xavier winning the district on the tiebreaker average, with Solon second and Western Dubuque third. Wahlert looks to have the edge for the fourth spot, as Central DeWitt will be lucky to get to three district wins while Wahlert has a shot to get there when they play Marion.

Why does district placement matter? Well, let's say Xavier ends up second in the district. They will get the first-round playoff game at home, against a team that finished third in their district and is within 125 miles. Teams in the running for those spots include Waverly Shell Rock, Charles City, Decorah, Washington, Fairfield, and Grinnell. Win that first round game, and you're likely going on the road to take on a district winner, such as West Delaware, Clear Creek Amana or Davenport Assumption. Get through that, and you're almost definitely on the road at another district winner in the third rounds.

Now say Xavier gets the district title. The first round game is still at home, against a fourth place finisher in another district. Win that, and you'll be home again for the second round (since district winners can't play each other in the second round, you'd have the top seed for that). The third round? Even if it's two district winners matching up, this year the home field is determined by reverse alphabetical order. Xavier comes out on top against every team in the state on that one. So the difference between winning the district and finishing second could very well mean the difference between three home playoff games and only one.

First off, Xavier has to take care of business and win over Wahlert and Marion. Make it 8 points or more for each, and there's no need to worry about the tiebreaker. Then there's a bit of scoreboard-watching, with next week's Solon-Western Dubuque game. I think we will have a strong setup of how the top four will finish in District 4 after October 17.