Thursday, October 26, 2017

Finishing With A Bang

Xavier closed out their 2017 regular season with the South Tama Trojans, a team that had won just two games on the year and had the distinction of being the only team to lose to Vinton-Shellsburg (and got shut out, no less). Xavier, meanwhile, was looking to finish undefeated for the third regular season in a row, so it wasn't shaping up to be a classic contest.

And it wasn't. Xavier put up six touchdowns in the first quarter and rolled to a 62-7 win, setting a school record for points in a game. Justin Schneider returned the opening kickoff all the way to the South Tama 34, and Quinn Schulte ran it in for a score on the next play. Three plays later, South Tama's Colton Vest had the ball knocked loose. It bounced directly into Schneider's hands, and he returned the fumble for a 30-yard TD. The Saints had their one sustained drive of the quarter on the next possession, rolling 80 yards in six plays, with Braden Stovie scoring from 3 yards out (he'd end up with 3 TDs on the night). Gabe Lux returned the next South Tama punt 72 yards for a score; it took two plays on the next possession for McClain Burger to run for a 51-yard TD; and then Lux returned another punt 61 yards to the end zone with 17 seconds left in the quarter. Xavier 41, South Tama 0 after 11:43 of play (yeah, Ben Conrad missed his first extra point of the year during all that, but you have to excuse him; his leg was probably pretty tired, kicking six extra point attempts in that quarter).

Xavier also scored on their next two possessions in the second quarter, on passes of 28 and 66 yards to Stovie (who saw a lot of action, as Jax Junge was out with an injury), to go up 55-0. Patrick Chambers fumbled late in the half, giving the Trojans a chance to mount a drive starting at Xavier's 44. Lane Koch threw a TD pass to Nick Ryan from 15 yards out with 4 seconds left, but frankly - that was the highlight of the evening for South Tama.

Chambers carried the ball throughout the continuous-clock second half for Xavier, rolling up 108 yards and scoring a 4th-quarter touchdown for the final 62-7 result. Xavier surpassed their previous record of 59 points (set against Central DeWitt in 2014), and did it with scores by the offense, defense, and special teams.

So now it's off to the playoffs. Xavier drew Oskaloosa, a wild-card playoff entry from District 5. The Indians lost a non-district game to Pella, then finished third in the district with losses to D-5 champion Solon and runner-up Washington. Oskaloosa is one of just three teams to get a score on Solon, so they do have that going for them. Seth Howard, the quarterback, leads a really balanced offense that racked up over 1500 yards both rushing and passing. Howard and Casey Hill combined for over 1200 yards and 23 TDs on the ground, while Tanner DeKock and Cole Henry caught 50 passes between them. The top five Indian receivers have a total of 95 receptions; Xavier's Quinn Schulte has attempted 95 passes total. It's an offensive juggernaut coming to Saints Field, but one that was certainly held in check by both Pella and Solon (only one TD against each).

Not to look ahead, but the brackets are favorable for Xavier; with a win Friday, they're assured to be home again for the second round, as the opposite bracket features a match between two district runners-up (Washington and Davenport Assumption). Then, a potential semifinal matchup between Xavier and fellow unbeaten Solon looms November 9 in the UNI Dome. But the Saints have to win on the field first - and with a team that's scored 100 points in the last two weeks (and put up 20 on a strong Waverly-Shell Rock defense the week before), perhaps Xavier is putting things all together at just the right time.

The Classes, They Are A-Changing

A sort of bombshell came out of the Iowa High School Athletic Association's meeting of the Board of Control this week. It wasn't really a huge surprise - talk has been swirling about changes to football classifications for some time - but it came as something of a shock to see things actually in black and white about a different setup for high school football in 2018.

Some background: For many years, the cutoff for schools put in the class for the biggest schools, 4A, had been a BEDS enrollment number of 700 or more. At about the same time the MVC and MAC went away and the state went to district football statewide in all classes, that resulted in just 46 Class 4A schools. Meanwhile, the other classes (from 3A to 1A) were established at 56 schools, with the rest of the 11-player teams going into Class A (which had 55 members for 2017). There's been a pretty wide disparity among all the classes, but it's quite pronounced in Class 4A - schools like West Des Moines Valley or Waukee have BEDS numbers around 2000, while the smallest 4A schools (such as Western Dubuque or Newton) were at 700 or even less. Add to that the falling number of students going out for football statewide, and the IHSAA realized they might need to adjust classes or give the option of 8-player football to more schools.

So here's what's happening for the 2018-2019 two-year rotation for Iowa high school football:

  • Class 4A is capped at the top 42 teams by BEDS enrollment. This likely means 7 districts of 6 teams, although that's not yet established.
  • Classes 3A through 1A will number 54 teams, rather than the current 56. Again, this very likely means 9 districts of 6 teams each.
  • Class A will be the remaining 11-player schools.
  • Eight-player football will now be available for schools with an enrollment of 120, up from the current limit of 115.
Now, while the guess of districts being 6 teams each is only a guess, some of the reasons put out by the Board of Control for the changes are better competitive balance (specifically more non-district games), revitalization of rivalry games across districts and classes (again, only possible with more non-district games), and a reduction in travel (because of the availability of more nearby non-district games). With those justifications in place, I don't see any other result besides cutting districts down to 6 members. That means just 5 district games, half the season, will decide the playoff qualifiers.

While the idea of 4 non-district games is nice (if more teams are willing to play a lower-classification school; I'm looking at you, metro Cedar Rapids schools), I'm not thrilled with only having 5 district games to decide playoff qualifiers. 4A has been doing this for a while, and it doesn't seem like it's quite enough games to really sort things out - for instance, this year there's a 5-4 team in Cedar Rapids Washington playing a first-round game this Friday while a 7-2 Newton squad is sitting at home.

What might help, however, is the system devised to select playoff qualifiers. With 9 districts of 6, you can't go with the top two finishers in each district (that's 18; not a number you can use to bracket a playoff system. You need either 16, as we currently have, or 32 if you're adding another round, which isn't likely unless they're going to start the season a week earlier). So perhaps you go with the district champions as automatic qualifiers, then use some sort of system (like the current 17-point tiebreaker) to determine the other 7 teams in the field. Class 4A, with 7 districts, could go with the top two in each district plus 2 wild cards.

Anyway, that still is up in the air. But we know for certain that six schools will be moving out of Class 4A into 3A for next year, and eight current 3A teams will be dropping to 2A (causing ripple effects down the classes, of course). The BEDS numbers will change, and the official classifications won't be out until early next year, but going by the most recent numbers here's what we're looking at:

MOVING FROM 4A TO 3A
  • Lewis Central
  • Clinton
  • Waterloo East
  • North Scott
  • Western Dubuque
  • Newton
MOVING FROM 3A TO 2A
  • Algona
  • Vinton-Shellsburg
  • North Polk
  • Iowa Falls-Alden
  • Atlantic
  • Davenport Assumption
  • Spirit Lake
  • Greene County
  • West Burlington/Notre Dame
(Algona and Gilbert have the same BEDS number for 2016-17; I'm making the assumption Gilbert's number will be higher than Algona for next year. If they stay tied, the state uses the alphabet, meaning Gilbert goes to 2A and Algona stays 3A.)

It's going to be an interesting winter, once the districts and the playoff qualifying system comes out. Districts of six will be kind of handy for travel purposes (I think it's going to really help in the northeast, with a district of Charles City/WSR/Decorah/Waterloo East/Independence/West Delaware, maybe), but poor Keokuk - only Washington, Fairfield, Mt. Pleasant and Fort Madison are anywhere nearby. Who's going to be that sixth member? Oskaloosa? Liberty?

Friday, October 20, 2017

Pondering Playoff Possibilities

One game left in the 2017 high school football season, and while a lot of playoff teams are already known, there's still a little bit up in the air. And that up in the air part makes a lot of uncertainty about who will play who in the first round that kicks off next Friday, October 27.

Let's look at what we know. Here are the set district champions, all decided in six of the seven districts - they know they will be at home for the first round:

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON (D-1)
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES (D-2)
XAVIER (D-3)
SOLON (D-5)
PELLA (D-6)
HARLAN (D-7)

And here are the guaranteed runners-up, who know they'll play a 10th game in the first round for certain:

WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK (D-3)
WASHINGTON (D-5)
GLENWOOD (D-7)

Also assured a playoff spot (either as runner-up, if West Delaware wins, or district champion, if West Delaware loses):

DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION (D-4)

So that accounts for 10 of the 16 playoff spots. What else is likely tonight?
  • The winner of CARLISLE-NORWALK will be runner-up in D-6.
  • If SPENCER defeats Algona, they'll be runner-up in D-1.
  • If WEBSTER CITY beats Boone, they're the runner-up in D-2.
  • A WEST DELAWARE win over Maquoketa gives them the D-4 title. A loss plus a Dubuque Wahlert win forces a three-way tie for second, which West Delaware takes by the points tiebreaker.
That takes us to 14 out of 16, with just the two wild cards to figure out. This is where the point differential comes into play. The state uses point margins for district games, up to +/- 17 points, then divides that total by the number of district games to get a point differential. This is used as a tiebreaker when overall record, head-to-head, or other methods can't sort out a tie. Now, for our purposes, I'm just going to use point totals - all these teams will have played 7 district games, so whether you're using the total points or the differential, it's all the same.

Who's got the best shot at the two wild card positions?
  • If WEST DELAWARE loses and Wahlert loses, MARION actually takes second in D-4 (with a head-to-head win over West Delaware). That puts West Delaware in the wild card pool; they'd finish with between a point margin between 50-66. This result (losses by WD and Wahlert) is extremely unlikely; but I include it for comprehensive purposes.
  • DECORAH will have a margin between 51 and 67 with a win over Independence. If they win by at least 12, they'll be ahead of all other possible wild card teams except Carlisle and West Delaware.
  • A CARLISLE win gives them second in D-6. Should they lose (giving Norwalk second), they'd still finish with a margin between 51 and 67 (the same as Decorah).
  • A loss by NORWALK puts them in the wild card pool. Their margin would be between 45 and 61.
  • A HEELAN win over Spirit Lake would give them a margin between 45 and 61 (the same as Norwalk).
  • OSKALOOSA would be in the wild card pool with a win over West Burlington/Notre Dame. Their margin would end up between 43 and 59.
  • A BALLARD win over Greene County, and their margin is between 42 and 58. If Carlisle loses to Norwalk, Ballard is eliminated from wild card consideration due to their non-district loss to Carlisle.
  • WINTERSET could join the wild card pool, but their point margin would max out at 52. If Norwalk is also in the pool, Winterset gets eliminated anyway due to their non-district loss to Norwalk.
  • WAHLERT and BOONE could make the wild card pool, but neither could get above 51 in points (and Boone would be eliminated in any case if Ballard wins their game tonight). If Boone can defeat Webster City, forcing a tie for the D-2 runner up spot, they'd take that spot should Ballard lose. A Ballard win plus a Boone win forces a three-way tie and the points tiebreaker - should Boone win by 14 or more they'd pass Webster City, but they'd need to win by at least 7 points more than Ballard wins by in order to stay ahead of them.
  • MARION has the record to be in the wild card pool; but their season finished with a point margin of 36, which isn't going to get them in. They get knocked out in any case if Wahlert ends up in the pool, since they lost to Wahlert.
As far as what's likely for Week 9:
  • As mentioned above, WEST DELAWARE should easily defeat Maquoketa. This takes West Delaware out of the wild card discussion.
  • DECORAH should win fairly easily against Independence. Let's say 13 points - that gives them a total of 63.
  • The CARLISLE-NORWALK game should be competitive, and could go either way. But it should be close. If Carlisle wins by, say, 7 points, Norwalk would finish with 55. A 3-point Carlisle win leaves Norwalk with 59.
  • A Norwalk win, though, puts Carlisle in excellent position for the wild card. A 7-point win by Norwalk and Carlisle still has a margin of 61.
  • HEELAN should defeat Spirit Lake handily, but they need to roll up those points. A 17-point win puts their margin at 61.
  • OSKALOOSA should run up a big win against West Burlington/ND, so give them a margin of 59.
  • BALLARD can only get to 58 points, max, and has to have Carlisle win over Norwalk to even get into the points discussion.
Given a West Delaware win; big wins by Decorah (13 points), Heelan, and Oskaloosa; and a 3-point win by Carlisle, the wild card looks like this:
  1. Decorah - 63
  2. Heelan - 61
  3. Oskaloosa - 59
  4. Norwalk - 59
A less-than-17-point win by Heelan gives Oskaloosa and Norwalk the chance to get into that second wild card (a tie in points goes to reverse alphabetical order starting with "D," so Oskaloosa wins that tie with Norwalk).

Given the same assumptions, except a 7-point win by Norwalk over Carlisle:
  1. Decorah - 63
  2. Carlisle - 61
  3. Heelan - 61
  4. Oskaloosa - 59
A points tie between Carlisle and (Bishop) Heelan goes to Carlisle via reverse alphabet. If Carlisle loses by more than 7, Heelan can sneak above them. Likewise, a closer win by Decorah could allow either or both of Carlisle and Heelan (or even Osky) to pass the Vikings.

I'm fairly certain the two wild cards will come from these four possibilities. Barring some bizarre upsets, of course ... if Independence beats Decorah and Spirit Lake knocks off Heelan and Carlisle blows out Norwalk, then you're looking at Oskaloosa and Ballard having good shots. A loss by one of them and Winterset, Wahlert and Boone are still there. But you're talking a lot of upsets for that to happen. Best to stick with the four teams that are in pretty solid position for those wild cards.

So then, who plays where? Here's a thought:
  • Glenwood at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
  • Webster City at Spencer
  • Carlisle at Dallas Center-Grimes
  • Decorah at West Delaware
  • Waverly-Shell Rock at Solon
  • Assumption at Xavier
  • Washington at Pella
  • Heelan at Harlan
If the wild cards are Decorah and Carlisle, then:
  • Glenwood at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
  • Spencer at Harlan
  • Webster City at Waverly-Shell Rock
  • Decorah at West Delaware
  • Assumption at Solon
  • Washington at Xavier
  • Norwalk at Dallas Center-Grimes
  • Carlisle at Pella (a district rematch, but those are allowed for wild card teams; another option would be sending Carlisle to Xavier and Washington to Pella)



Grinding Out

Xavier went to Vinton-Shellsburg last Friday with a playoff spot all locked up, and just needing a win over the Vikings to ensure their fourth district title in four years. Vinton-Shellsburg had struggled their way through the season so far, with only a win over South Tama to their credit, and had the absolute worst offensive numbers and worst rushing defense in the district.

So it wasn't expected to be a challenge for the Saints, and in the end it wasn't, really, as Xavier picked up a 38-0 win. But it wasn't exactly what was expected, either - much like last season, when the Vikings scored on their first possession and led Xavier for almost the entire first half.

This season, Vinton-Shellsburg took the ball and then wouldn't give it up, eating up clock on a long opening drive that got as far as the Xavier 37. The Saints did push back from there, forcing a punt. On the second play after the punt, Quinn Schulte ran to the left on a designed quarterback run. He found some daylight, broke past the linebackers, and then proceeded to outrun everybody to the end zone for an 85-yard touchdown run. The extra point try was missed, but Xavier was up 6-0 after two offensive plays.

The Vikings had less success on their next possession, picking up a first down before having to punt - but then disaster. The snap went over punter Coleson Phelps' head, and after a mad scramble, Xavier took over the ball at the Vinton-Shellsburg 3. Jax Junge ran it in easily from there, the Saints added a two-point conversion, and after just three plays on offense they held a 14-0 lead. Xavier added a Ben Conrad field goal on their next possession, early in the second quarter, and it was 17-0.

Then the Vikings put together another nice drive, with Xavier's usually stifling defense unable to get off the field. Blake Bohnsack did a nice job passing, including picking up a key first down on 4th and 7, and Vinton-Shellsburg drove all the way to the Saint 24. A field goal try there (the first of the year for Vinton-Shellsburg) was short.

The teams traded possessions as halftime neared, then (much like the previous week's game against Waverly-Shell Rock) Xavier was able to mount a great, quick, clock-saving drive at the end of the half. A shanked punt set the Saints up at their 43; Schulte threw to Kyle Moeder for 26 yards, then Braden Stovie ran for 16. Schulte then zipped a 15-yard TD pass to Gabe Lux, and the Saints went up 24-0 with just seconds left in the half.

The possessions did not work so well for Vinton-Shellsburg in the second half. Xavier took the opening kickoff and rolled right down the field in five plays, with another Junge touchdown making it 31-0. After stopping the Vikings in three plays, Stovie ran the punt all the way back to the 16-yard-line, and Schulte ran in for his second TD on the next play. The score went to 38-0, the continuous clock began to run, and there was still 9 minutes to go in the third quarter.

The rest of the game went fast (as continuous clock games tend to do) and was relatively uneventful (Xavier put in their second team right away; Vinton-Shellsburg had one more decent drive in the fourth quarter). It ended up 38-0, Xavier's fourth shutout of the year, and secured another district title for the Saints.

So once again, Xavier will host the first-round playoff game at Saints Field on October 27. This is a year where the state uses alphabetical order for second-round home field if the teams are equal district champions, which will work against Xavier (being last alphabetically in the entire state) - BUT, in past years of alphabetical order, things have worked Xavier's way unusually often. This year, if Xavier wins the first round to advance to the quarterfinals, the other area district champions are Solon and either West Delaware or Davenport Assumption (Pella may be another option). If Xavier is bracketed with Solon, that game is at Solon. If it's against West Delaware or Assumption, both of those teams lost district games, so as long as Xavier goes 7-0 in D-3 by beating South Tama, Xavier would host against either of those. If it's Pella in the bracket, Xavier travels to Pella. (And of course if there are any upsets, with a district runner-up or wild card advancing to face Xavier, the Saints get to be home field for that.)



Not-So-Instant Classic

You like the title? It works in so many ways ... the actual Waverly-Shell Rock vs Xavier game on October 3 was delayed by over an hour due to lightning in the third quarter, so, not-so-instant. Also, today is October 20, two weeks after that game, and I'm just getting around to blogging about it. Clever, ain't it?

Sorry about the delay, particularly since this game meant a lot in District 3, and it was quite an entertaining and competitive matchup. I could give you excuses (I'm in rehearsals, I have to work, I've been out of town, I have a cold ... all of those are true, by the way), but I still should have kept up better.

Okay ... Week 7 of the high school football season, and both Xavier and Waverly-Shell Rock are unbeaten. The Go-Hawks have the best overall defense in District 3; the Saints have the best rush defense. Waverly-Shell Rock has one of the top overall offenses in D-3, and a strong ground game boasting the district's top two rushers (Luke Velky and Gabe Santioemma); Xavier brings a good balance on offense that's not flashy but spreads the ball around and gets results. Waverly-Shell Rock boasts a couple of the district's best punt returners; Xavier's special teams have always been outstanding.

The winner takes sole possession of the lead in D-3, with a strong hold on the championship. The loser probably will remain in the runner up spot, so both teams still look good for the playoffs.Not to mention, this is the fifth game between these two teams in four seasons; they met in the playoffs in both 2014 and 2015, then played both a district game and a playoff game last year. Xavier has won all four meetings.

It was a wet, breezy first half at Saints Field, with predictions for possible thunderstorms developing through the evening. Throughout the first quarter, the Go-Hawks have a better go of it, getting into Xavier territory with a punt return (then missing a field goal) and starting on the Xavier side on their second possession (with a sack setting them back). Something to note, however - running back Gabe Santioemma leaves the game sometime during those first two drives and never gets back on teh field. Meanwhile the Saints can't even get a first down on the Waverly-Shell Rock defense. Near the end of the quarter, a rare Xavier turnover - a punt return is fumbled away and the Go-Hawks recover at the 15. Ben Hemer runs it in five plays later and Waverly-Shell Rock takes a 7-0 lead early in the second quarter.

The Saints respond, putting together an impressive 11-play drive. Xavier converts on a 4th and 1, and later on a crucial 3rd down play Quinn Schulte scrambles to field an errant shotgun snap, rolls away from pressure, and throws a dart to Kyle Moeder for 23 yards and the first down. The drive ends with a toss from Schulte to Jax Junge in the left flat, who makes a terrific cut upfield past a tackler and runs into the end zone to tie the game at 7 midway through the second.

Penalties on Waverly-Shell Rock and another bad snap that gets past Schulte stymie both teams as the quarter continues. With about a minute left, though, Xavier fields a punt and starts at their 37. Braden Stovie rips off a key 16-yard run, and Coach Schulte guides the Saints through a quick drive to get into field goal position. Ben Conrad nails the 36-yard kick just inside the right upright with 4 seconds left, and Xavier takes a 10-7 lead into the locker room.

This could prove to be huge. After both teams trade a couple of possessions moving into the third quarter, lightning is spotted to the west and the officials stop play. With a 30-minute delay added each time lightning is seen, the potential for a long delay (or even suspension or ending of the game) becomes a factor. Once a full half of football has been played, a game can be called as final - chances are Waverly-Shell Rock would not be too pleased with taking a 10-7 loss after only 30-some minutes of game time, but the procedure for getting the teams back together to finish the contest adds a lot of complications. (Actually, in southwestern Iowa another game with huge implications in D-7 was halted with just a few minutes left to play in the game - and the teams agreed to get back together on Saturday to finish the last bit, instead of taking the result as it stood. Seems like a lot of trouble, and you have to take into account the physical aches and pains players have on Saturdays anyway, but ... you do what you have to do. That game ended the same way it was when it was halted, by the way.) It was a great topic of discussion in the press box during the delay.

And it all turned out to be moot, as the storm moved off and the teams were able to pick back up just over an hour after the game was stopped. The rest actually seemed to do both offenses some good. Xavier came back out and continued another nice drive against the sturdy Go-Hawk defense, but an off-target snap on a field goal try led to a miss by Conrad.

On to the fourth quarter, Xavier still up 10-7. After a sack of Schulte, the Saints are forced to punt fairly deep back in their territory. Mitch Willey's kick takes a tremendous roll, finally being downed all the way at the Waverly-Shell Rock 31, a punt of some 57 yards. The Go-Hawks turn that around quickly, though - on the second play Velky avoids the rush and throws a pass to Jordan Downing near midfield. Downing eludes the first tackler, breaks across the field, gets past another defender, and ends up going all the way for a 68-yard touchdown. The Waverly-Shell Rock fans and players explode with happiness, as the Go-Hawks take a 14-10 lead with only six and a half minutes left.

Xavier is not shaken. Starting at the 28, Schulte drops back on first down. He looks the safety off to the right, then turns left and hurls a deep pass down the left sideline to Junge, who is covered by a linebacker downfield. Junge makes the catch and takes the ball to the Go-Hawk 29. On the next play, a well-designed pass play gets Moeder wide open about the 5-yard-line on the right side. Schulte loops the ball to him, and Moeder backs his way into the end zone over a Waverly-Shell Rock tackler. Boom. Two plays go 72 yards and Xavier gets back on top, 17-14.

And then - Jack Seward fumbles the ensuing kickoff return, and Xavier recovers at the 18 with a chance to go up by two scores with about five minutes to play. Waverly-Shell Rock's defense comes up big, though, and Xavier has to settle for another Conrad field goal, making it 20-14. The Go-Hawks have to chance, if they can get the ball into the end zone. They give it a try, with Velky throwing the ball and picking up first downs, getting Waverly-Shell Rock near midfield. There he is chased out of the pocket, and throws to the left to a momentarily open receiver. A Xavier defender leaps high in front of the receiver and tips the ball up into the air. McClain Burger dives for it, getting his hands around the ball as he rolls to the ground and securing the interception.

But even that doesn't ice the game - if the Go-Hawks can force a three-and-out, they'll get their offense back on the field. Once again, Xavier responds. On second and 12, Schulte runs on a keeper, and is grabbed by a couple of linebackers. He keeps driving his feet, more Xavier blockers push into the pile, more Waverly-Shell Rock defenders jump in ... but Schulte will not go down until he finishes a 14-yard run for the first down. That pretty much ices it, and the Saints are about to run down the clock from there.

Xavier takes the 20-14 decision, remaining unbeaten and taking sole possession of first place in D-3 while ensuring their entry into the playoffs for the 12th straight year. Waverly-Shell Rock goes to 6-1 (4-1 in the district), and having already defeated Decorah and Independence (the only other two playoff contenders) are in pretty solid position for second place and a playoff spot.

It was a tremendous battle between two determined foes, and a very entertaining game to watch. Will they end up meeting in the playoffs for the fourth year in a row? It's possible ...







Sunday, October 8, 2017

The Playoff Race Coagulates

Yeah, things are kind of a mess in the Class 3A playoff situation. There's just so many contenders yet to play in many of the districts, it leaves a lot of things up in the air and makes it pretty complicated, even with just 2 games left. Never let it be said I waver in the face of confusion, though! I may not be right, just moving ever forward ...


DISTRICT 1

  1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton......7-0
  2. Heelan, Sioux City..........5-2 (head-to-head over Storm Lake)
  3. Storm Lake.....................5-2
  4. Spencer...........................4-3
  5. Spirit Lake......................3-4
  6. Humboldt........................2-5
  7. Algona............................2-5
  8. LeMars............................0-7
SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON is in the playoffs with a win, and wins the district if they defeat Storm Lake. With 2 losses, it's possible they'd be thrown into a points tiebreaker at 5-2.

STORM LAKE can win the district by winning out, and are in a tiebreaker at worst with a win.

HEELAN can get in a tiebreaker by winning out plus a Storm Lake loss.

SPIRIT LAKE needs to win out (which would knock out Heelan, by the way) and have Storm Lake lose to have a shot at the playoffs.

SPENCER needs to win out; they would then hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Heelan, Storm Lake, and Spirit Lake.

There's the odd chance of a points tiebreaker for second place at 4-3, if all the games play out that way. It's nearly impossible to predict points with 2 games left, but SBL and Storm Lake have the upper hand points-wise, with Spencer needing to get head-to-head tiebreakers instead.

OUT: Humboldt, Algona, LeMars.



DISTRICT 2

  1. Dallas Center-Grimes......7-0
  2. Boone..............................5-2 (expected points tiebreaker)
  3. Webster City....................5-2
  4. Ballard.............................5-2
  5. Gilbert.............................2-5
  6. Greene County................2-5
  7. Perry................................2-5
  8. Iowa Falls-Alden.............0-7
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES is in the playoffs with a win, and win the district with a win over Boone. It's still possible they could miss a playoff spot by losing out, along with Webster City winning out and Ballard losing again - otherwise the worst would be a tiebreaker.

BOONE can win the district by winning out. With one win plus a Webster City loss, they'll at least be in a tiebreaker.

WEBSTER CITY is in the playoffs if they win out; if Dallas Center-Grimes also loses two games, Webster City can win the district. With one win plus a Boone loss, they're at least in a tiebreaker.

BALLARD needs to win out and get losses from both Boone and Webster City to get into a tiebreaker.

With the points in this district, Dallas Center-Grimes is in the best shape. Boone and Webster City are fairly close, with Ballard running behind (although they do hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Boone).

OUT: Gilbert, Greene County, Perry, Iowa Falls-Alden.


DISTRICT 3

  1. Xavier, Cedar Rapids......7-0
  2. Waverly-Shell Rock .......6-1 
  3. Decorah...........................5-2
  4. Benton.............................4-3
  5. Independence..................3-4
  6. Charles City.....................2-5
  7. South Tama......................2-5
  8. Vinton-Shellsburg............0-7
This one's a little bit easier.

XAVIER has clinched a playoff spot, and will secure the district title with a win.

WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK is in the playoffs with a win. They can win the district by winning out if Xavier loses two games.

DECORAH is in if they win out and Waverly-Shell Rock loses both games.

INDEPENDENCE can still sneak in by winning out (beating Decorah) and having Waverly-Shell Rock lose twice.

OUT: Benton, Charles City, South Tama, Vinton-Shellsburg.


DISTRICT 4

  1. West Delaware................7-0
  2. Assumption, Davenport..6-1 
  3. Wahlert, Dubuque...........5-2
  4. Marion............................4-3
  5. Clear Creek-Amana........3-4
  6. Center Point-Urbana.......2-5
  7. Central DeWitt................1-6
  8. Maquoketa......................0-7
Marion still could mix up this district plenty, with games remaining against West Delaware and Assumption. I have them losing both, but a win in either (or both) would really juggle the predicted order.

WEST DELAWARE is in the playoffs with a win. Two losses plus Assumption winning out and a Wahlert loss would keep them out altogether.

ASSUMPTION is in the playoffs if they win out, and they'd win the district if West Delaware lost twice. One win plus a Marion loss assures the Knights a tiebreaker.

WAHLERT needs to win out along with losses by Marion and Assumption to get involved in a tiebreaker.

MARION can actually win the district if they win out. If they win one and Assumption loses one, they're at least in a tiebreaker.

The points situation here has West Delaware and Assumption in the best position, with Marion not far behind. Wahlert needs some help.

OUT: Clear Creek-Amana, Center Point-Urbana, Central DeWitt, Maquoketa.


DISTRICT 5

  1. Solon..............................7-0
  2. Washington....................6-1 
  3. Oskaloosa......................5-2
  4. Mt. Pleasant...................3-4
  5. West Burlington/ND......2-5
  6. Fairfield.........................2-5
  7. Ft. Madison....................2-5
  8. Keokuk..........................0-7
This is another pretty simple district.

SOLON has a playoff spot locked up. They take the district title with another win.

WASHINGTON and OSKALOOSA are in the exact same position; the winner of their game Friday is guaranteed a playoff spot. If either team wins out while Solon loses twice, they'll win the district. The loser of Friday's game will have to hope for a wild-card. (You'll note I switched my prediction to Washington this week, mainly so whoever wins, I can still say I called it.)

OUT: Mt. Pleasant, West Burlington-Notre Dame, Fairfield, Ft. Madison, Keokuk.


DISTRICT 6

  1. Pella................................7-0
  2. Carlisle...........................6-1 
  3. Norwalk..........................5-2
  4. Nevada...........................3-4
  5. Bondurant-Farrar............3-4
  6. Grinnell...........................2-5
  7. North Polk......................1-6
  8. Knoxville........................1-6
PELLA wins the district and a playoff spot with a win. They could still miss the playoffs if they lose twice, Norwalk loses twice, and both Carlisle and Nevada win out. Any other combination, and even with 2 losses Pella would be in a points tiebreaker.

CARLISLE is in the playoffs if they beat Norwalk (unless Pella loses out and Nevada wins out). They win the district by winning out, should Pella lose twice.

NORWALK is in the playoffs with two wins (and win the district if Pella loses twice). If they lose to Nevada and beat Carlisle, they'll be in a tiebreaker at worst.

NEVADA needs to win out (giving both Carlisle and Norwalk losses) and have Pella lose out to sneak into a tiebreaker.

Pella has a good points lead. Carlisle and Norwalk are pretty close, and Nevada is far behind (but by winning out they hold lots of head-to-head tiebreakers).

OUT: Bondurant-Farrar, Grinnell, North Polk, Knoxville.


DISTRICT 7

  1. Harlan.............................7-0
  2. Glenwood.......................6-1 
  3. Winterset........................5-2
  4. Carroll............................4-3
  5. Denison-Schleswig........3-4
  6. Atlantic...........................2-5
  7. Creston-OM....................1-6
  8. ADM...............................0-7
HARLAN wins the district with a win. If they lose out while both Glenwood and Denison-Schleswig win out, they miss the playoffs.

WINTERSET is in the playoffs if they win out, and win the district if Harlan loses twice and Glenwood loses once. With one win and a Glenwood loss, they'll get in a tiebreaker.

GLENWOOD is in the playoffs if they win out, and win the district if Harlan loses twice and Winterset loses once. With a win plus a Winterset loss, they make a tiebreaker happen.

DENISON-SCHLESWIG needs to win out to get in a tiebreaker; they'd have a spot locked up if Glenwood also wins out and Harlan loses twice.

In this district, Harlan, Glenwood, and Winterset are all quite close points-wise. Denison-Schleswig can't catch Harlan or Winterset in points unless they lose twice, badly, and they are only slightly closer to Glenwood.

OUT: Carroll, Atlantic, Creston-OM, ADM.


PREDICTED DISTRICT CHAMPIONS: SBL, DC-G, Xavier, West Delaware, Solon, Pella, Harlan.

PREDICTED SECOND PLACE FINISHERS: Heelan, Boone, Waverly-Shell Rock, Assumption, Washington, Carlisle, Glenwood.

WILD CARD POOL: Of course things aren't going to finish up like I'm predicting, but once again every district has 5-2 teams to put in the pool: Storm Lake, Webster City, Ballard, Decorah, Wahlert, Oskaloosa, Norwalk, and Winterset. Ballard is eliminated due to their loss to Webster City, while Winterset drops off because of their loss to Norwalk. Going by the current point differential, the two wild cards would be Storm Lake and Oskaloosa.


POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS:
  • Glenwood at SBL
  • Carlisle at Dallas Center-Grimes
  • Washington at Xavier
  • Waverly-Shell Rock at West Delaware
  • Assumption at Solon
  • Oskaloosa at Pella
  • Heelan at Harlan
  • Storm Lake at Boone









Thursday, October 5, 2017

And The Yellow Flags Fell Like Rain

It can be tough for a football team to get a rhythm going, to stick with a game plan and operate smoothly and efficiently, when the game keeps getting stopped by penalties. That's what happened at Independence last Friday night, where the Xavier Saints rolled to a 37-0 shutout of the Independence Mustangs, but the game didn't really feel like a continuous-clock blowout. Mainly that was due to the 11 accepted penalties on the Saints (along with at least 3 more that were not accepted) that kept the game in a herky-jerky, unrhythmic mess.

Xavier's defense rode to the fore, again, picking up their third shutout of the year. The Mustangs could only muster 39 yards on the ground and 40 through the air - disappointing numbers for an offense that came in as one of the most prolific in District 3. Sophomore QB Logan Schmitt was hounded all night, sacked perhaps 4 times, and unable to run for much positive yardage on his planned runs. Schmitt did find his favorite target, Zach Snyder, 5 times for 31 yards, but that was pretty much the entire offensive output for Independence.

Meanwhile, Xavier turned to an old standby play - the quick pass out to a flanker with two blockers split out wide in front of him. Essentially a long handoff to the outside, Quinn Schulte threw that pass to Gabe Lux 5 or 6 times, generally picking up good yardage (including a 20-yard TD pass to open the scoring in the 1st quarter). Schulte also had a couple of key long passes to Jack Scott and Jacob Hines at important points during the game, which was helpful considering the middle of the Independence defense actually played the run pretty well. The Saints were able to amass 142 rushing yards, but half of that came from just two long runs by Braden Stovie. Without those runs, Xavier averaged only 2.8 yards per carry.

Points are what really matter, though. Xavier got on the board with the pass to Lux, then recovered a fumble and used the long pass to Scott to set up a short Schulte run. On the next possession, the Saints used another long pass to get in the red zone, and Jax Junge ran the ball in from 19 yards out. It was 21-0 Saints, still in the first quarter.

The second quarter found Xavier in much worse field position, plus a fumble of their own, until the final drive. Starting at their 35, the Saints put together an impressive 43-yard drive (overcoming 35 yards of penalties as well), and finished with a 39-yard field goal from Ben Conrad to make it 24-0 at the half.

In the second half, Independence had only one drive that included a first down before the final minutes (Xavier stopped the Mustangs for a 3-and-out seven times on the night). The Saints used Stovie's two long runs to get close, and Schulte appeared to run it in from the 5 - but yep, another yellow flag on the field negated the score. Conrad booted his second field goal, this one from 31 yards out, to make it 27-0. The next Xavier possession got down to the red zone, but a muffed snap and incompletion brought up a 4th down at the 24. Conrad came in again, and had exactly enough leg, as his 41-yard field goal try hit the crossbar and bounced over for a 30-0 lead.

Xavier got to the continuous clock after a huge Lux punt return all the way to the 9, after which Schulte tossed a swing pass to Joey Drahozal out of the backfield and Drahozal spun past a tackler and dove into the end zone. That made it 37-0 and started the continuous clock.

The win took Xavier to 6-0 on the season and 4-0 in District 3. Which brings them to this week - a homecoming matchup against similarly 6-0/4-0 Waverly-Shell Rock. The Go-Hawks have the top offense in the district (348.7 yards per game), and both of the top two rushers (Luke Velky and Gabe Santioemma); they also boast the top overall defense in the district (169.5 yards per game, just 34 points allowed). Xavier is no slouch, with the district's best rush defense (65.8 ypg) and a servicable balanced offense averaging almost 190 yard rushing and 115 yards passing per week.

The winner is guaranteed a playoff spot, and gets in the driver's seat for the district title. The loser can't clinch anything yet, but is in pretty solid position for at least second place and a playoff spot as well. Should be a dandy (which is what I thought last year, too, before Xavier rolled to a 42-0 win; i honestly don't expect that this time).