Let's look at what we know. Here are the set district champions, all decided in six of the seven districts - they know they will be at home for the first round:
SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON (D-1)
DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES (D-2)
XAVIER (D-3)
SOLON (D-5)
PELLA (D-6)
HARLAN (D-7)
And here are the guaranteed runners-up, who know they'll play a 10th game in the first round for certain:
WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK (D-3)
WASHINGTON (D-5)
GLENWOOD (D-7)
Also assured a playoff spot (either as runner-up, if West Delaware wins, or district champion, if West Delaware loses):
DAVENPORT ASSUMPTION (D-4)
So that accounts for 10 of the 16 playoff spots. What else is likely tonight?
- The winner of CARLISLE-NORWALK will be runner-up in D-6.
- If SPENCER defeats Algona, they'll be runner-up in D-1.
- If WEBSTER CITY beats Boone, they're the runner-up in D-2.
- A WEST DELAWARE win over Maquoketa gives them the D-4 title. A loss plus a Dubuque Wahlert win forces a three-way tie for second, which West Delaware takes by the points tiebreaker.
That takes us to 14 out of 16, with just the two wild cards to figure out. This is where the point differential comes into play. The state uses point margins for district games, up to +/- 17 points, then divides that total by the number of district games to get a point differential. This is used as a tiebreaker when overall record, head-to-head, or other methods can't sort out a tie. Now, for our purposes, I'm just going to use point totals - all these teams will have played 7 district games, so whether you're using the total points or the differential, it's all the same.
Who's got the best shot at the two wild card positions?
- If WEST DELAWARE loses and Wahlert loses, MARION actually takes second in D-4 (with a head-to-head win over West Delaware). That puts West Delaware in the wild card pool; they'd finish with between a point margin between 50-66. This result (losses by WD and Wahlert) is extremely unlikely; but I include it for comprehensive purposes.
- DECORAH will have a margin between 51 and 67 with a win over Independence. If they win by at least 12, they'll be ahead of all other possible wild card teams except Carlisle and West Delaware.
- A CARLISLE win gives them second in D-6. Should they lose (giving Norwalk second), they'd still finish with a margin between 51 and 67 (the same as Decorah).
- A loss by NORWALK puts them in the wild card pool. Their margin would be between 45 and 61.
- A HEELAN win over Spirit Lake would give them a margin between 45 and 61 (the same as Norwalk).
- OSKALOOSA would be in the wild card pool with a win over West Burlington/Notre Dame. Their margin would end up between 43 and 59.
- A BALLARD win over Greene County, and their margin is between 42 and 58. If Carlisle loses to Norwalk, Ballard is eliminated from wild card consideration due to their non-district loss to Carlisle.
- WINTERSET could join the wild card pool, but their point margin would max out at 52. If Norwalk is also in the pool, Winterset gets eliminated anyway due to their non-district loss to Norwalk.
- WAHLERT and BOONE could make the wild card pool, but neither could get above 51 in points (and Boone would be eliminated in any case if Ballard wins their game tonight). If Boone can defeat Webster City, forcing a tie for the D-2 runner up spot, they'd take that spot should Ballard lose. A Ballard win plus a Boone win forces a three-way tie and the points tiebreaker - should Boone win by 14 or more they'd pass Webster City, but they'd need to win by at least 7 points more than Ballard wins by in order to stay ahead of them.
- MARION has the record to be in the wild card pool; but their season finished with a point margin of 36, which isn't going to get them in. They get knocked out in any case if Wahlert ends up in the pool, since they lost to Wahlert.
As far as what's likely for Week 9:
- As mentioned above, WEST DELAWARE should easily defeat Maquoketa. This takes West Delaware out of the wild card discussion.
- DECORAH should win fairly easily against Independence. Let's say 13 points - that gives them a total of 63.
- The CARLISLE-NORWALK game should be competitive, and could go either way. But it should be close. If Carlisle wins by, say, 7 points, Norwalk would finish with 55. A 3-point Carlisle win leaves Norwalk with 59.
- A Norwalk win, though, puts Carlisle in excellent position for the wild card. A 7-point win by Norwalk and Carlisle still has a margin of 61.
- HEELAN should defeat Spirit Lake handily, but they need to roll up those points. A 17-point win puts their margin at 61.
- OSKALOOSA should run up a big win against West Burlington/ND, so give them a margin of 59.
- BALLARD can only get to 58 points, max, and has to have Carlisle win over Norwalk to even get into the points discussion.
Given a West Delaware win; big wins by Decorah (13 points), Heelan, and Oskaloosa; and a 3-point win by Carlisle, the wild card looks like this:
- Decorah - 63
- Heelan - 61
- Oskaloosa - 59
- Norwalk - 59
A less-than-17-point win by Heelan gives Oskaloosa and Norwalk the chance to get into that second wild card (a tie in points goes to reverse alphabetical order starting with "D," so Oskaloosa wins that tie with Norwalk).
Given the same assumptions, except a 7-point win by Norwalk over Carlisle:
- Decorah - 63
- Carlisle - 61
- Heelan - 61
- Oskaloosa - 59
A points tie between Carlisle and (Bishop) Heelan goes to Carlisle via reverse alphabet. If Carlisle loses by more than 7, Heelan can sneak above them. Likewise, a closer win by Decorah could allow either or both of Carlisle and Heelan (or even Osky) to pass the Vikings.
I'm fairly certain the two wild cards will come from these four possibilities. Barring some bizarre upsets, of course ... if Independence beats Decorah and Spirit Lake knocks off Heelan and Carlisle blows out Norwalk, then you're looking at Oskaloosa and Ballard having good shots. A loss by one of them and Winterset, Wahlert and Boone are still there. But you're talking a lot of upsets for that to happen. Best to stick with the four teams that are in pretty solid position for those wild cards.
So then, who plays where? Here's a thought:
- Glenwood at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Webster City at Spencer
- Carlisle at Dallas Center-Grimes
- Decorah at West Delaware
- Waverly-Shell Rock at Solon
- Assumption at Xavier
- Washington at Pella
- Heelan at Harlan
If the wild cards are Decorah and Carlisle, then:
- Glenwood at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Spencer at Harlan
- Webster City at Waverly-Shell Rock
- Decorah at West Delaware
- Assumption at Solon
- Washington at Xavier
- Norwalk at Dallas Center-Grimes
- Carlisle at Pella (a district rematch, but those are allowed for wild card teams; another option would be sending Carlisle to Xavier and Washington to Pella)
No comments:
Post a Comment