The Playoff Race Coagulates

Yeah, things are kind of a mess in the Class 3A playoff situation. There's just so many contenders yet to play in many of the districts, it leaves a lot of things up in the air and makes it pretty complicated, even with just 2 games left. Never let it be said I waver in the face of confusion, though! I may not be right, just moving ever forward ...


DISTRICT 1

1. Sergeant Bluff-Luton......7-0
2. Heelan, Sioux City..........5-2 (head-to-head over Storm Lake)
3. Storm Lake.....................5-2
4. Spencer...........................4-3
5. Spirit Lake......................3-4
6. Humboldt........................2-5
7. Algona............................2-5
8. LeMars............................0-7

SERGEANT BLUFF-LUTON is in the playoffs with a win, and wins the district if they defeat Storm Lake. With 2 losses, it's possible they'd be thrown into a points tiebreaker at 5-2.

STORM LAKE can win the district by winning out, and are in a tiebreaker at worst with a win.

HEELAN can get in a tiebreaker by winning out plus a Storm Lake loss.

SPIRIT LAKE needs to win out (which would knock out Heelan, by the way) and have Storm Lake lose to have a shot at the playoffs.

SPENCER needs to win out; they would then hold head-to-head tiebreakers over Heelan, Storm Lake, and Spirit Lake.

There's the odd chance of a points tiebreaker for second place at 4-3, if all the games play out that way. It's nearly impossible to predict points with 2 games left, but SBL and Storm Lake have the upper hand points-wise, with Spencer needing to get head-to-head tiebreakers instead.

OUT: Humboldt, Algona, LeMars.

DISTRICT 2

1. Dallas Center-Grimes......7-0
2. Boone..............................5-2 (expected points tiebreaker)
3. Webster City....................5-2
4. Ballard.............................5-2
5. Gilbert.............................2-5
6. Greene County................2-5
7. Perry................................2-5
8. Iowa Falls-Alden.............0-7

DALLAS CENTER-GRIMES is in the playoffs with a win, and win the district with a win over Boone. It's still possible they could miss a playoff spot by losing out, along with Webster City winning out and Ballard losing again - otherwise the worst would be a tiebreaker.

BOONE can win the district by winning out. With one win plus a Webster City loss, they'll at least be in a tiebreaker.

WEBSTER CITY is in the playoffs if they win out; if Dallas Center-Grimes also loses two games, Webster City can win the district. With one win plus a Boone loss, they're at least in a tiebreaker.

BALLARD needs to win out and get losses from both Boone and Webster City to get into a tiebreaker.

With the points in this district, Dallas Center-Grimes is in the best shape. Boone and Webster City are fairly close, with Ballard running behind (although they do hold a head-to-head tiebreaker over Boone).

OUT: Gilbert, Greene County, Perry, Iowa Falls-Alden.

DISTRICT 3

1. Xavier, Cedar Rapids......7-0
2. Waverly-Shell Rock .......6-1 
3. Decorah...........................5-2
4. Benton.............................4-3
5. Independence..................3-4
6. Charles City.....................2-5
7. South Tama......................2-5
8. Vinton-Shellsburg............0-7

This one's a little bit easier.

XAVIER has clinched a playoff spot, and will secure the district title with a win.

WAVERLY-SHELL ROCK is in the playoffs with a win. They can win the district by winning out if Xavier loses two games.

DECORAH is in if they win out and Waverly-Shell Rock loses both games.

INDEPENDENCE can still sneak in by winning out (beating Decorah) and having Waverly-Shell Rock lose twice.

OUT: Benton, Charles City, South Tama, Vinton-Shellsburg.

DISTRICT 4

1. West Delaware................7-0
2. Assumption, Davenport..6-1 
3. Wahlert, Dubuque...........5-2
4. Marion............................4-3
5. Clear Creek-Amana........3-4
6. Center Point-Urbana.......2-5
7. Central DeWitt................1-6
8. Maquoketa......................0-7

Marion still could mix up this district plenty, with games remaining against West Delaware and Assumption. I have them losing both, but a win in either (or both) would really juggle the predicted order.

WEST DELAWARE is in the playoffs with a win. Two losses plus Assumption winning out and a Wahlert loss would keep them out altogether.

ASSUMPTION is in the playoffs if they win out, and they'd win the district if West Delaware lost twice. One win plus a Marion loss assures the Knights a tiebreaker.

WAHLERT needs to win out along with losses by Marion and Assumption to get involved in a tiebreaker.

MARION can actually win the district if they win out. If they win one and Assumption loses one, they're at least in a tiebreaker.

The points situation here has West Delaware and Assumption in the best position, with Marion not far behind. Wahlert needs some help.

OUT: Clear Creek-Amana, Center Point-Urbana, Central DeWitt, Maquoketa.

DISTRICT 5

1. Solon..............................7-0
2. Washington....................6-1 
3. Oskaloosa......................5-2
4. Mt. Pleasant...................3-4
5. West Burlington/ND......2-5
6. Fairfield.........................2-5
7. Ft. Madison....................2-5
8. Keokuk..........................0-7

This is another pretty simple district.

SOLON has a playoff spot locked up. They take the district title with another win.

WASHINGTON and OSKALOOSA are in the exact same position; the winner of their game Friday is guaranteed a playoff spot. If either team wins out while Solon loses twice, they'll win the district. The loser of Friday's game will have to hope for a wild-card. (You'll note I switched my prediction to Washington this week, mainly so whoever wins, I can still say I called it.)

OUT: Mt. Pleasant, West Burlington-Notre Dame, Fairfield, Ft. Madison, Keokuk.

DISTRICT 6

1. Pella................................7-0
2. Carlisle...........................6-1 
3. Norwalk..........................5-2
4. Nevada...........................3-4
5. Bondurant-Farrar............3-4
6. Grinnell...........................2-5
7. North Polk......................1-6
8. Knoxville........................1-6

PELLA wins the district and a playoff spot with a win. They could still miss the playoffs if they lose twice, Norwalk loses twice, and both Carlisle and Nevada win out. Any other combination, and even with 2 losses Pella would be in a points tiebreaker.

CARLISLE is in the playoffs if they beat Norwalk (unless Pella loses out and Nevada wins out). They win the district by winning out, should Pella lose twice.

NORWALK is in the playoffs with two wins (and win the district if Pella loses twice). If they lose to Nevada and beat Carlisle, they'll be in a tiebreaker at worst.

NEVADA needs to win out (giving both Carlisle and Norwalk losses) and have Pella lose out to sneak into a tiebreaker.

Pella has a good points lead. Carlisle and Norwalk are pretty close, and Nevada is far behind (but by winning out they hold lots of head-to-head tiebreakers).

OUT: Bondurant-Farrar, Grinnell, North Polk, Knoxville.

DISTRICT 7

1. Harlan.............................7-0
2. Glenwood.......................6-1 
3. Winterset........................5-2
4. Carroll............................4-3
5. Denison-Schleswig........3-4
6. Atlantic...........................2-5
7. Creston-OM....................1-6
8. ADM...............................0-7

HARLAN wins the district with a win. If they lose out while both Glenwood and Denison-Schleswig win out, they miss the playoffs.

WINTERSET is in the playoffs if they win out, and win the district if Harlan loses twice and Glenwood loses once. With one win and a Glenwood loss, they'll get in a tiebreaker.

GLENWOOD is in the playoffs if they win out, and win the district if Harlan loses twice and Winterset loses once. With a win plus a Winterset loss, they make a tiebreaker happen.

DENISON-SCHLESWIG needs to win out to get in a tiebreaker; they'd have a spot locked up if Glenwood also wins out and Harlan loses twice.

In this district, Harlan, Glenwood, and Winterset are all quite close points-wise. Denison-Schleswig can't catch Harlan or Winterset in points unless they lose twice, badly, and they are only slightly closer to Glenwood.

OUT: Carroll, Atlantic, Creston-OM, ADM.

PREDICTED DISTRICT CHAMPIONS: SBL, DC-G, Xavier, West Delaware, Solon, Pella, Harlan.

PREDICTED SECOND PLACE FINISHERS: Heelan, Boone, Waverly-Shell Rock, Assumption, Washington, Carlisle, Glenwood.

WILD CARD POOL: Of course things aren't going to finish up like I'm predicting, but once again every district has 5-2 teams to put in the pool: Storm Lake, Webster City, Ballard, Decorah, Wahlert, Oskaloosa, Norwalk, and Winterset. Ballard is eliminated due to their loss to Webster City, while Winterset drops off because of their loss to Norwalk. Going by the current point differential, the two wild cards would be Storm Lake and Oskaloosa.

POSSIBLE FIRST ROUND MATCHUPS:

• Glenwood at SBL
• Carlisle at Dallas Center-Grimes
• Washington at Xavier
• Waverly-Shell Rock at West Delaware
• Assumption at Solon
• Oskaloosa at Pella
• Heelan at Harlan
• Storm Lake at Boone