Let's start with what we know. The district champions and automatic playoff qualifiers are:
Sergeant Bluff-Luton, D-1 (Sioux City Heelan can tie them with a win over Spencer and an SBL loss to Storm Lake, but SBL has the head-to-head tiebreaker)
Carroll, D-2 (Boone could tie with a win over Webster City and a Carroll loss to Dallas Center-Grimes, but Carroll has the head-to-head tiebreaker)
Solon, D-6 (the winner of Washington-Mount Pleasant could tie if Solon loses to Fairfield, but Solon has the head-to-head tiebreaker over both of them)
Oskaloosa, D-7 (Pella could tie with a win over Grinnell and an Oskaloosa loss to South Tama, but Oskaloosa holds the head-to-head tiebreaker)
Norwalk, D-8
Lewis Central, D-9 (Harlan could tie with a win over Winterset and a Lewis Central loss to ADM, but Lewis Central has the head-to-head tiebreaker)
So what about the other districts? They have exactly the same scenarios:
In D-3, Decorah plays Independence on Friday; a Decorah win gives them the title. Should Independence win, along with a Waverly-Shell Rock victory over Charles City, there would be a three-way tie for the championship; Waverly-Shell Rock would be named the champion due to RPI, and Decorah and Independence would both be playoff qualifiers. If both Decorah and Waverly-Shell Rock lose, Independence would be the district champion.
In D-4, a Xavier win over Marion gives the Saints the district crown. If Marion wins, along with a Western Dubuque win over Maquoketa, there would be a three-way tie. Xavier would be the champion with the best RPI, and Western Dubuque and Marion would both be in the playoffs. Losses by both Xavier and Western Dubuque would give the district title to Marion.
In D-5, a North Scott victory over Davenport Assumption means North Scott wins the district. An Assumption win, along with a Clear Creek-Amana win over Central DeWitt, sets up a three-way tie, with CCA probably taking the championship with their RPI. Assumption and North Scott would also be in the playoffs. Losses by both North Scott and CCA would give Assumption the championship.
So for playoff qualifiers, we know we have:
- Sergeant Bluff-Luton
- Carroll
- Solon
- Oskaloosa
- Norwalk
- Lewis Central
The other likely district champions are:
- Decorah
- Xavier
- North Scott
And to fill the rest of the field by RPI, it would look like this (going with my projections of Week 9 results):
- Sioux City Heelan (.6716)
- Waverly-Shell Rock (.6492)
- Clear Creek-Amana (.6461)
- Harlan (.6438)
- Western Dubuque (.6299)
- Pella (.6282)
- Spencer (.5894)
There still could be a few wrinkles, as you can see by the potential scenarios in D-3, D-4, and D-5. Should all three of those districts end in 3-way ties, meaning Independence, Marion, and Davenport Assumption join the playoff party, that would mean only Heelan (with a win over Spencer) or Harlan (should Heelan lose and Harlan defeats Winterset) would make the field as at-larges ... leaving Pella and Spencer out.
But it's probably going to look something like the 16 qualifiers you see above. What could be a likely playoff bracket? District champions host the first-round games, with the exception of the one with the worst RPI (that would be Carroll, by far). The state has said they want to use RPI to seed as much as they can, with geography only being a last resort. My guess is that means the priority would be to protect the top 4 RPI teams so they don't meet before the semifinals in the Dome, and then try to not put two high RPI squads together in the first round. With my projections showing the top 4 RPIs as SBL, Xavier, Lewis Central, and North Scott, here's a possible playoff bracket that might do the trick:
Carroll at Sergeant Bluff-Luton
Sioux City Heelan at Norwalk
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Spencer at Lewis Central
Harlan at Oskaloosa
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Waverly-Shell Rock at Xavier
Western Dubuque at Decorah
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Pella at North Scott
Clear Creek-Amana at Solon
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